Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 20

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 20 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
Modelling real number of infections February to date
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

Request to posters giving a link:
Please do so in full, so people can see in advance what they are clicking
Also at least a brief title so we know what the link is about

you haven't heard many teenagers'' voices if you think they are less powerful...

teenagers aren't children in my dialect - but yes, and perhaps that points to aerosolization not being that relevant, it's the symptomless thing - which also may suggest the disparity in privileged and less privileged regions. We don't know the mechanisms, but observationally it's that - super-spreaders also perhaps disproportionately do the spreading and I've never heard of a child one of those identified.

It would be useful to be able to test after the x days of quarantine. More so you can get their contacts if positive.
I wonder if sibling to each other is higher than normal child to child

As we see this month thoughkids especially young ones are often infected with other things and that reduces the transmission with coronoviruses. It does make them more ill though. So actually you might find asymptomatic spreaders more

Comparing ONS deaths to a 28 day cut off and 60 day cutoff shows the former undercounts and the latter overcounts,
see graph of June - late July

There is an official govt site which states deaths with both 28 and 60-day cutoffs, but I can't remember which

'However 1 in 3 people told to isolate by the app will have been given a "false positive"'

facepalm

@sirfredfredgeorge

But if so many of them have it, surely they are spreading it too?

It depends on the mechanisms for spreading - and we're not super confident, but for example, if the primary method is aerosolization then it could be the less powerful voices etc. may not be strong enough to produce aerosols - unlike rhinoviruses which are smaller and aerosolized by sneezing. Equally if the primary spread is via droplets, then the fact they're asymptomatic (so no coughing) again mitigates the amount of spread.

So there are reasons why they might spread less, even if equally infected, we don't know for sure - we're not even absolutely sure the aerosolization is a significant factor at all, let alone who or under what situation aerosolize the virus.

.... Reportedly children have poorly expressed ACEs nasal receptors, which makes it more difficult for Covid to "grab onto" As children get older, these receptors become more like those of adults

jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2766522

Another reason wrt small children could be simply be that their nose is mostly far below the height of noses of adults !

ACE2

re Belgium, I wonder if their gyms have been open:

As a gym rat, 6 days per week, since 16 May I've been in a class of 12 / 14 people in a closed room for much longer than 15 minutes,
all panting like mad and minimum distance 1.5 m

Although some football & other sports teams in germany have reported multiple cases, so far no gym clusters reported by RKI
Seems so far that no gym cluster has had enough people to be major and also not enough gyms clusters in total found for gyms to reach the threshhold to be listed by the RKI

This will not help convince people that the Uk is all in this together:

"Chauffeur-driven cars will be exempt from new laws forcing passengers to wear masks in taxis to slow the spread of coronavirus, Downing Street has said."

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2020/sep/23/uk-coronavirus-live-news-restrictions-government-pmqs-covid-latest-updates?page=with:block-5f6b49f78f0804b332904783

Thank you for another great thread big choc.
Is there a link to the test positivity rate anywhere? Ideally as a graph showing rates now compared to the peak?
Apologies if I’ve missed this somewhere!

@TeaInTheGarden

Thank you for another great thread big choc. Is there a link to the test positivity rate anywhere? Ideally as a graph showing rates now compared to the peak? Apologies if I’ve missed this somewhere!

.... For the Uk as a whole, there is a link in the OP:

Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs

@NeurotrashWarrior

Im noticing some SM trends (anecdotal and linked to me.)

These are mostly Newcastle people. People who've previously been quiet are starting to criticise the idea of a pandemic. That flu is worse. That we should follow Sweden.

Some That it's big pharma lie.

And then that as increasing numbers of younger are getting it and are asymptomatic or find it a mild irritation they're asking what all the fuss is about.

I'm starting to think that opinion has been around for a while along with complacency. And once it took hold, it's taken off.

Yes it’s noticeable in Southwest too, but most people here haven’t known anyone who’s had it, so easy to deny.

Has anyone come across this? The hypothesis that the Covid-19 outbreak follows a Gompertz function. What that means is that the outbreak doesn't follow an exponential growth pattern.

This study demonstrated that the progression of the COVID-19 epidemic did not follow an exponential growth law even in the very beginning, but instead, its growth is slowing down exponentially with time. More specifically, the results irrevocably show that COVID-19 cases grew in accordance with the Gompertz function, and not the sigmoid function.

The main difference is that the sigmoid function starts off growing exponentially (it has a constant exponential growth factor) and then slows down. At the same time, the Gompertz function is never exponential, but instead exhibits a growth rate that decreases exponentially from the very first confirmed case.

Various articles on the subject:

www.news-medical.net/news/20200629/Stanfords-Nobel-Laureate-develops-a-prediction-model-for-SARS-CoV-2.aspx

www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.18.20135210v2

www.rgare.com/knowledge-center/media/covid-19/covid-19-brief-using-the-gompertz-model-to-estimate-covid-19-risk-by-age

arxiv.org/pdf/2008.02475.pdf

@TeaInTheGarden - in addition to the graph @BigChocFrenzy linked, regional test positivity is in table form weekly in the surveillance report data file, which is usually released on Fridays. I'm not aware of local authority (UTLA)-level test positivity data country-wide that's regularly updated and would like to see it if anybody finds it.

Whoever was looking for 28 and 60-day deaths, they are in the same surveillance data file by the way.

@Augustbreeze - can you provide a link or scan for what the letter says please?

@MRex here we are:

m.facebook.com/notes/nhsuk/a-covid-19-update-for-parents-of-school-and-college-pupils/10164299076590444/

But the conversation was about those aged 0-19 so that includes (in large numbers) older children.

I await with interest the DfE's advice on the contact tracing app which can be sued by anyone over 16 and, of course, all school staff...

Don't want to derail this lovely, factual thread, but I have a question and would like to hear the opinions of the level headed teachers that I see here if possible
www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4032151-SCHOOLS-Need-help-and-perspective-from-teachers-on-supporting-home-learning?watched=1
Thanks!

I’d be interested in any social data too about people’s feelings and attitudes, linked to previous evidence base on how people cope during pandemic or similar.

Are we broadly following previous world war collective behaviour? Or the Spanish flu? Social media makes everything so much quicker it’s almost as if, co current to the actual Covid19 pandemic, there are other ‘pandemics’ of conspiracy theories that grow and take hold, or of deniers and people who can switch off somehow from the reality of war/pandemic by greatly minimizing and therefore creating a ‘them’ (those that go to war or die from the flu) and can be forgotten about and ‘us’ who are just weary and want to be normal and feel that they are somehow not linked to those suffering?

@TheSunIsStillShining I read the thread post but this doesn’t seem the right thread to answer. I’m not a teacher but work with teachers sometimes, I’ve put an answer on the thread.

@IceCreamSummer20 there are lots of links to worldwide (although very USA heavy) university studies on the Reddit corona virus board (there a few boards but it’s the one with the most followers). Most of them are recruiting and ongoing but it may be worth a look and see if there are any that you would want to follow up when they’re complete.

Thanks @Augustbreeze, it looks reasonable to me. (I'd have added a reminder that other illnesses still exist, so contact GP, 111 and 999 where needed - a recent thread has me still worrying about a boy who sounded like he had sepsis)

Thanks @Cornettoninja I’ll have a look.

www.google.com/amp/s/amp.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/fux5z5/scientific_studies_looking_for_participants/

This is the thread I was talking about - it used to be stickied but isn’t anymore. Hopefully MN allow it - I know they can be a bit touchy about links there!