Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 20

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 20 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
Modelling real number of infections February to date
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

Request to posters giving a link:
Please do so in full, so people can see in advance what they are clicking
Also at least a brief title so we know what the link is about

I’ve looked a bit - and no huge studies on social behaviour during COVID-19 found so far - but interesting article saying trust in medical and health pre Covid was over 80% in most European countries and that 3/4 of UK people (this was from a survey, not peer reviewed) thought their actions and rule following were important. One scoping review said lots of practical advice, little empirical evidence as yet.

Although this one here found a correlation between happiness and compliance, those less happy less likely to comply. From 3 large scale surveys (World wide) analysed in Germany.
ftp.iza.org/dp13690.pdf

I know false positives has been discussed and correctly analysed on here before.

But I think this is a good article explaining it in terms i can easily understand

m.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/false-positives-coronavirus_uk_5f686da4c5b6de79b677e909?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAKYegepezaBykLqRJb92HUSqDuzsAeRhEcvzCHo1KiJxOih9WRLIjOTlLKANcR6XbtdDmtyBGR-3zzkdQVm1kc77oNKsK5bfwutfzGf6y-9glhAqGvDZc0B5HY1ohPtp9ZCr9dTFiizeB9mWHv74vdR0dfs6-30zzuWVG2jOoZPo

@IceCreamSummer20

I’d be interested in any social data too about people’s feelings and attitudes, linked to previous evidence base on how people cope during pandemic or similar.

Are we broadly following previous world war collective behaviour? Or the Spanish flu? Social media makes everything so much quicker it’s almost as if, co current to the actual Covid19 pandemic, there are other ‘pandemics’ of conspiracy theories that grow and take hold, or of deniers and people who can switch off somehow from the reality of war/pandemic by greatly minimizing and therefore creating a ‘them’ (those that go to war or die from the flu) and can be forgotten about and ‘us’ who are just weary and want to be normal and feel that they are somehow not linked to those suffering?

The Mass Observation project, which was begun in WW2, is still running and is currently asking its participants about their experience of life during the pandemic (amongst other things - you normally get asked a range of questions on a few different topics).

Most recent directive here

However, the completed submissions aren't available except to bona fide researchers. Normally anyone can apply to write for the project but it's currently closed to new joiners, I'd imagine because Covid and lockdown have contributed to an explosion of interest. They say they hope to reopen to new participants soon (I used to be a mass observer but let it lapse - I'm rather regretting that now).

@CrunchyCarrot

See: sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/index.php?title=Cummins-2020-09-08

@CoffeeandCroissant Thanks, I'll have a read. :)

@CrunchyCarrot I noticed in March that the doubling period was very slowly increasing even during its period of “exponential” growth. It makes sense that as people are infected, the pool shrinks, and growth slows. I’m not certain as this would affect growth in the very early stages, but exponential growth in the real world is far too bumpy to be able to tell the difference between the two, I’d imagine.

@IceCreamSummer20 - Demos bill themselves as a third-party research group and did some surveys you might find interesting: demos.co.uk/project/britain-under-lockdown/. I confess that I answered despite not being 100% sure who owns and runs them, unusual for me, but they seem innocuous so far (famous last words).

V useful charts from UK COVID-19**@UKCovid19Stat

Next OP I'll add the link to their Stats board - they include all 4 nations, plus IoM, Jersey, Guernsey:
coronavstats.co.uk/uk

Confirmed cases for:
Wales
Scotland

From UK COVID-19@UKCovid19Stat

Patients in England with confirmed test admitted to hospital per day
and running total count of those in hospital,
total on ventilation

NW England

Patients with confirmed test admitted to hospital per day
total count of those in hospital,
total on ventilation

London

Patients with confirmed test admitted to hospital per day
total count of those in hospital,
total on ventilation

Some good graphs on triages from @don'tbetyet. This one in particular showing the numbers by age, under 18s dominating and peaking on Sun/Mon

Triage shown by age group:

UK COVID-199@UKCovid19Stats*

The latest data relating to the triage of COVID-19 symptoms through NHS Pathways 111, 999 and 111 online.

18,455 triages/journeys were completed yesterday, a 7% decrease over the previous day.

The 7-day rolling average has been in decline for the last 6 days.

Does seem to vary by day of the week - tends to be more calls Sunday / Monday
Start of the school / work week ....

Those numbers look promising BCF.

I am part of the UCL COVID-19 social study:

www.covidsocialstudy.org

Research is still on going so I'm not sure if they are published yet? I've been part of the study group since March, asking more about my social responce to the pandemic, rather than physical responce.

Has the dashboard not updated today?

Interesting.
www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/24/close-to-100-accuracy-airport-enlists-sniffer-dogs-to-test-for-covid-19

I don't think they took into account ppl like me who are really terrified of dogs. What could they smell on me apart from fear?

@enterparentone

Has the dashboard not updated today?

The dots of doom are back ••• •••

@RedToothBrush

Those numbers look promising BCF.

... Due to hassle of getting tests, then isolation, more people may just be ignoring mild symptoms of Covid and not phoning

Billy Quilty @BQuilty
Worrying new preprint from @louisesmith142 et al. finds just 18% of persons with COVID symptoms adhere to self-isolation, and only 11% adhere to quarantine if contacted by test and trace

twitter.com/BQuilty/status/1309124863370690562
Theres a useful link in the tweet to the page which I can't get to link directly here.

I'm struggling a little to fully understand this document as I'm not a statician. BUT I think it DOES explain in some of the data it has as to why there is more of a problem in the north.

Here are some graphs from it:

And another...

Also, that study relies on self-reporting adherence,
when people are typically giving more virtuous answers than the reality

@TheSunIsStillShining

Interesting and amazing how dogs can do that. They smell swabs, so as far as I can see you don't have to actually be sniffed by the dog.

@enterparentone

Has the dashboard not updated today?

It doesn’t instil confidence, does it? That they can’t even reliably update a website without it crashing 6 months into this.