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Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 20

970 replies

BigChocFrenzy · 22/09/2020 22:46

Welcome to thread 20 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
Modelling real number of infections February to date
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

Our STUDIES Corner

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

Request to posters giving a link:
Please do so in full, so people can see in advance what they are clicking
Also at least a brief title so we know what the link is about

OP posts:
Thread gallery
82
sirfredfredgeorge · 23/09/2020 20:53

I find the part where it says seropositive participants were negative again within a month which implies it might be quite hard to get a true representation with these surveys. I wonder if it has a lot to do with the type of test too

This is the thing that is really screwing up so much analysis, it's now becoming clear that antibodies stop being detected really very quickly in some people and with some tests, but we don't know how much of this is full waning of protection or how much is insensitive tests. It also means we have to doubt all the analysis on numbers of people who were positive based on antibody testing, we really don't have any idea what the infection rates were at the peak

BigChocFrenzy · 23/09/2020 20:53

@Chaotic45

I have follows all these threads with great interest- a huge thank you to all the level headed people on here.

I wanted to point out something from my nearest town of Leicester. We have had high cases for a long time, things have improved a bit, but I think it's fair to say that figures have been worrying for months.

Yet hospital admissions and deaths have remained quite low. We haven't seen the dreaded increase of either. I'm unsure why, but I thought it's worth consideration....

.... Likely due to:

. Far more testing now than March-April, so picking up a far higher % of mild cases compared to then

. Much younger average age now of infected people, hence much less serious symptoms

OP posts:
BigChocFrenzy · 23/09/2020 20:59

@sirfredfredgeorge

I find the part where it says seropositive participants were negative again within a month which implies it might be quite hard to get a true representation with these surveys. I wonder if it has a lot to do with the type of test too

This is the thing that is really screwing up so much analysis, it's now becoming clear that antibodies stop being detected really very quickly in some people and with some tests, but we don't know how much of this is full waning of protection or how much is insensitive tests. It also means we have to doubt all the analysis on numbers of people who were positive based on antibody testing, we really don't have any idea what the infection rates were at the peak

.... Looking at how cases are rising in Spain & France - and indeed the UK - even with all having considerable SD measures and all with R >> 1.0

Densely populated European countries look well short of "herd immunity"
even though there would be a certain % of immune people reducing R

The important question is whether the rise levels off over winter, as sufficient people have immunity to slow the spread,
or whether cases continue rising and peak over winter

OP posts:
Chaotic45 · 23/09/2020 20:59

@BigChocFrenzy absolutely. But it seems interesting that the hospital numbers have stayed low, so the transfer from young to old appears not to have happened in great numbers...

RedToothBrush · 23/09/2020 21:03

[quote Chaotic45]@BigChocFrenzy absolutely. But it seems interesting that the hospital numbers have stayed low, so the transfer from young to old appears not to have happened in great numbers...[/quote]
Theyve been going up considerably. A and E doctors were quoted in the Liverpool Echo as saying that after the weekend theyve had if more restrictions arent put in they dont know how they will cope over the winter.

Oldbagface · 23/09/2020 21:03

@Chaotic45 I'm not expert but I think you missed the word 'yet' I'm sure other know better than me.

BigChocFrenzy · 23/09/2020 21:08

The lag from infection to hospitalisation if it occurs is ~ 8 days

The great majority of deaths are within 2-4 weeks of infection

OP posts:
BigChocFrenzy · 23/09/2020 21:10

although a small % of deaths occur up to 60 days and a tiny number even longer
(e.g. a BAME consultant was clapped out ICU after 60+ days, then died of a stroke a few days later)

OP posts:
BigChocFrenzy · 23/09/2020 21:12

There are always exceptions, but these don't significantly influence the figures & trends we are observing

OP posts:
Chaotic45 · 23/09/2020 21:16

I do understand what your saying, but the numbers in Leicester have been worryingly high for over 3 months and from what I understand hospital admissions haven't increased much.

I know it doesn't make logical sense, but that does seem to be the caseZ

boys3 · 23/09/2020 21:26

University testing is an interesting one. DS2 signed up for testing every fortnight at his uni. Also bear in mind that 2nd, 3rd years etc will in many cases have been back for several weeks already.

As C19 is a notifiable disease any positives from uni testing would get picked up. However there does need to be a process for feeding through numbers tested.

herecomesthsun · 23/09/2020 21:34

Almost 1 in 5 positive tests today were in under 19s, apparently. So much for children not getting this.

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 20
NeurotrashWarrior · 23/09/2020 21:55

Im noticing some SM trends (anecdotal and linked to me.)

These are mostly Newcastle people. People who've previously been quiet are starting to criticise the idea of a pandemic. That flu is worse. That we should follow Sweden.

Some That it's big pharma lie.

And then that as increasing numbers of younger are getting it and are asymptomatic or find it a mild irritation they're asking what all the fuss is about.

I'm starting to think that opinion has been around for a while along with complacency. And once it took hold, it's taken off.

Witchend · 23/09/2020 21:55

@BigChocFrenzy

The lag from infection to hospitalisation if it occurs is ~ 8 days

The great majority of deaths are within 2-4 weeks of infection

Do we actually have comparative figures for 60/28 days? I'm not convinced it is the majority, so I would be interested to see.

I've been noting the daily statistics from the worldometre down since the beginning:

The week before they changed from 60 days, the numbers were:
9, 89, 65, 49, 98, 55, 8 (60 days) Total 373

The week after, the numbers were:
3, 12, 16, 6, 2, 18, 6 (28 days) Total 63

and the week they changed from 60 days to 28 days went:
21, 102, 77, 18, 11, 3, 5 (Monday to Sunday) The change being on the day they said "18".

Now before they changed it was coming down each week, but not by huge amounts; after they changed, it hovered around the same amount until it started going up again.

Now I might be doing a disservice and on that particular day they chose to change there was a drop which was sustained. However that does seem unlikely. It looks to me that 28 days is around 25% of the 60 days-and that's being quite generous.

wintertravel1980 · 23/09/2020 21:58

Looks like Belgium is significantly changing its COVID response strategy:

www.brusselstimes.com/news/belgium-all-news/132566/new-eu-areas-become-red-travel-zones-for-belgians-from-friday/

“We had already announced at the last press conference that we would be looking for a long-term strategy,” said Wilmès, adding that, in order to understand this crisis properly, it needs to be broken down into three phases.

During the first period, the emphasis was on containing the virus to ensure that healthcare was not overwhelmed, and during the second phase, a gradual phasing out of the measures started.

“That brings us to this third phase: risk management,” said Wilmès. “In this way, we are trying to return to a situation that is as normal as possible, in the long term, for which a system can be worked out together with the experts from Celeval”.

The 6 golden rules remain a key point, and Wilmès stressed the importance of sticking to them at all times.

Limiting social contacts will be done with a “modular approach,” meaning that the rules may change depending on the epidemiological situation.

Instead of the social bubble, there will be a “reference number” that will vary between 1 and 5, depending on the health situation. At the moment, experts recommend a maximum of 5 close contacts per person per month.

“The rule concerning social contacts is especially important. Close contact means being physically close to someone who does not live under the same roof, for more than 15 minutes, without keeping a distance and without a facemask,” she said.

Apart from those close contacts, people can see as many people as they want, as long as they keep their distance and respect the hygiene rules. However, meeting more than ten people at a time is still not allowed.

From 1 October, face masks will only be mandatory in crowded places, as well as on public transport and in cinemas, for example. “It is useless to make masks compulsory anytime, anywhere,” Wilmès said, calling on local authorities to comply with the change, and not keep the rule in unnecessary places.

For gatherings, a difference is made between private and professional gatherings. For private gatherings, the maximum number of guests remains at 10. “This also applies to gatherings in the streets.”

Professionally organised events will follow the same rules as the hospitality industry. There will be no limit on the maximum number of guests allowed, as it will depend on the capacity of the place. The protocols must still be followed, and dance parties are still not allowed.

The mandatory quarantine period will be reduced from 14 days to one week. People who show Covid-19 symptoms still have to contact their doctor. On day 5 of the quarantine, a new test can be taken. If negative, people may leave quarantine after the week is up. If positive, the quarantine will be extended to the full 2 weeks.

wintertravel1980 · 23/09/2020 22:08

The week before they changed from 60 days, the numbers were

UK has never reported deaths using the 60 days cut off. Previously the numbers included everyone who has even been tested positive for COVID. The bulk of the "overstatement" related to care home residents who, unfortunately, on average have got residual life expectancy of 13-15 months (26-30 months in total). People who tested positive earlier this year (e.g. in April-May) passed away in summer and erroneously kept getting reported in the COVID death numbers.

Based on the ONS data, the 28 day cut off understates the numbers while the 60 days cut off overstates them. The real figure is somewhere in the middle. I think BigChoc had a link with more info.

Figure 34 in the surveillance report has the graph for both numbers:

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/920372/Weekly_COVID19_Surveillance_Report_week_37_FINAL_UPDATED.pdf

sirfredfredgeorge · 23/09/2020 22:10

Looks like Belgium is significantly changing its COVID response strategy

Appears to bring it more in line with most of Europe, only difference is joining france in the 7 day quarantine.

It would good if there was a simple resource that listed the differences in different countries, so hard to find specific info on differences by country.

Sunshinegirl82 · 23/09/2020 22:11

@herecomesthsun

Almost 1 in 5 positive tests today were in under 19s, apparently. So much for children not getting this.
I don't think it has ever been widely asserted by anyone sensible that children can't or don't catch Covid but that, the evidence seems to suggest, they are less severely affected when they do catch it and and are less likely to spread it.
Piggywaspushed · 23/09/2020 22:14

But if so many of them have it, surely they are spreading it too?

The DfE has written to all parents and schools basically telling them not to get tests. Well, it doesn't say that but that's how I read it...

Lots of don't do this, no need to do this etc etc.

They really are trying to stop schools full or part closing despite their tiers.

wintertravel1980 · 23/09/2020 22:17

On care home residents - prior to expanded testing, we had about 300,000 of confirmed COVID cases. Assuming 27.5% related to care home residents (using the number of deaths as a proxy), we have got around 80,000 people with the average life expectancy of 26-30 months. It means every month we might see around 2,600-3,000 deaths which would have been treated as "COVID cases" if we had followed the old methodology.

sirfredfredgeorge · 23/09/2020 22:25

But if so many of them have it, surely they are spreading it too?

It depends on the mechanisms for spreading - and we're not super confident, but for example, if the primary method is aerosolization then it could be the less powerful voices etc. may not be strong enough to produce aerosols - unlike rhinoviruses which are smaller and aerosolized by sneezing. Equally if the primary spread is via droplets, then the fact they're asymptomatic (so no coughing) again mitigates the amount of spread.

So there are reasons why they might spread less, even if equally infected, we don't know for sure - we're not even absolutely sure the aerosolization is a significant factor at all, let alone who or under what situation aerosolize the virus.

christinarossetti19 · 23/09/2020 22:27

@Piggywaspushed

But if so many of them have it, surely they are spreading it too?

The DfE has written to all parents and schools basically telling them not to get tests. Well, it doesn't say that but that's how I read it...

Lots of don't do this, no need to do this etc etc.

They really are trying to stop schools full or part closing despite their tiers.

Is that the letter that was sent today? It was from PHE and telling people not to only go and get tested if unless they have a temp, new continuous cough or loss of taste or smell.

Then protocols about isolation etc.

I read it as discouraging people from panicking when they get the traditional autumn term bug, but I can see it puts schools in a difficult situation when they're being uber cautious about every sniffle (fair enough).

Piggywaspushed · 23/09/2020 22:29

you haven't heard many teenagers'' voices if you think they are less powerful... a few promontories are missing their foghorns...

Piggywaspushed · 23/09/2020 22:30

I may be being a bit paranoid, but I thought the letter was heavily loaded. I know of many people who have tested positive with headaches, snotty noses etc.

Augustbreeze · 23/09/2020 22:34

I think the letter is our equivalent of the Scottish one sent a few weeks after they started back at school, emphasising the guidance to parents.

Whether the guidance is correct is another matter....

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