Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 20

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 20 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
Modelling real number of infections February to date
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

Request to posters giving a link:
Please do so in full, so people can see in advance what they are clicking
Also at least a brief title so we know what the link is about

7-day rolling average of several European countries / million population

• log scale, so don't worry that the UK is close to cases France or Spain However, it does show the Uk gradient still rising as quickly as France's, while Spain's cases look to be levelling off - but at a high level

Glasgow 20.44% positive
Edinburgh. 17.54% positive.
And as said before, it's not just students.
1/3 of positive cases are in the over 40 age group today.

& the Scottish figures are up from 5% +ve in the summer, despite any increase in testing

I think the Scottish attempt not to double count has broken the process, particularly for key workers. And did Wales fix bloody admissions data yet?

I used to think we were fairly numerate and logical as a country. No longer.

@MRex

I think the Scottish attempt not to double count has broken the process, particularly for key workers. And did Wales fix bloody admissions data yet?

I used to think we were fairly numerate and logical as a country. No longer.

.... As a STEM Phd I realised decades ago that a surprising number of people in responsible positions have a problem understanding numbers, how to analyse them, what they mean And often don't take kindly to being corrected

Looking at that UK 7-day cases curve, we can at least say cases are continuing to rise.
but detailed calculation of how quickly and where .... may need to be parked for review and further data !

And did Wales fix bloody admissions data yet?

Doesn't look like it. The dashboard still says the same thing:

Data are not updated every day by all four nations and the figures for Wales are not comparable to those for other nations as Wales include suspected COVID-19 patients while the other nations include only confirmed cases.

Wales still doing a Belgium ...

And Scotland admissions are completely out of date. The last reported number on the UK dashboard is for Sep 16.

England hospital admissions appear a more reliable indicator.

What is concerning is that this is really only a 2nd "ripple"

The government - never mind us - will need much better quality data and much more reliable, to support their decision-making over winter,
when cases, hospitalisations etc are likely to be much higher

It is reported (eg Sky) that there's a press conference tomorrow: the PM, Whitty and Vallance.

I wonder whether they'll reuse the graph?

@Augustbreeze Which graph? The one with 50k cases per day in October?

Oooh I thought after last time Whitty and Vallance didn't want to appear with the PM! They seem to want more restrictions than the economists do?

@Augustbreeze

It is reported (eg Sky) that there's a press conference tomorrow: the PM, Whitty and Vallance.

I wonder whether they'll reuse the graph?

We do need a weekly update imo.

Not daily again as I think that lost its importance. But weekly and not with BJ would be best.

Yes that graph @herecomesthsun.

Yes we could do with at least a weekly briefing.

It'll be interesting to see Boris and the scientists in the same room.

Well, cases currently 40% under the prediction of what would happen if they did nothing

So they can say they did something, enough people complied - and it worked

@BigChocFrenzy surely they'll have an understanding that numbers for particular days grow for quite a few days after.

Our first day of school reported 1500 ish cases (2nd Sep) - there are pretty much 3000 for that date now.

They must also have an idea of positivity rates, especially with regards to self referred tests.

And they'll know about how many can't get tests.

I'll lose all faith* if they simply say hey look we are below the graph, we are winning!

*not much left as it is!

I expect they'll say it's working so far, but we can't let up

They can't call a press conf to say they've no idea if it's working
so they'll probably put on some cautious encouragement and say Keep On Keeping On

(Unless of course they there are some worse figures coming up the line that they know about)

➡️ NEW thread: 📉 📊

https://www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4037587-Daily-numbers-graphs-analysis-thread-21?msgid=100442817