Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 20

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 20 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
Modelling real number of infections February to date
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

Request to posters giving a link:
Please do so in full, so people can see in advance what they are clicking
Also at least a brief title so we know what the link is about

Ok, yeah. That all makes sense! Thanks

Has anyone found people in hospital/numbers mechanically ventilated in and around March 18th for comparison? There were 34 deaths and 999 cases.

The earliest UK figures on the dashboard are:
23/3 1271 admissions
27/3 7043 in hospital
2/4 1813 mechanically ventilated

@Piggywaspushed

T and T for schools has been handed over to the DfE. Does anyone think they will do a good job of this???

You mean it's been handed to school heads to deal with?

@Piggywaspushed

Slight correction : not T and T but the advice on what actions to take. General Q still applies..

How will it work Piggy?

I know some people had been waiting for hours to get through to PHE

@IloveJKRowling there are figures for inpatients and admissions by hospital trust on the same site I linked to before. coronavirus.data.gov.uk/healthcare You can change the blue United Kingdom at the top to country or NHS region. I don't think you can get an individual trust on this though there is a weekly spreadsheet with that on somewhere. I will see if I can find it later - someone posted it a few days ago.

Yup RTB.

Apparently, there is a 'hotline'. And then DfE people tell you what they recommend.

Which I should imagine will be 'keep calm and carry on'.

@Piggywaspushed

Slight correction : not T and T but the advice on what actions to take. General Q still applies..

So the government can say "we wanted them to stay open, but the schools went against us."

We did our bit

Ontop Thank you.

So they are passing the buck from PHE (which presumably has at least some people qualified in public health) to DfE?

What could possibly go wrong............

@IloveJKRowling

So they are passing the buck from PHE (which presumably has at least some people qualified in public health) to DfE?

What could possibly go wrong............

Who are then passing the buck back to head teachers, who have personal relationships with the staff, parents and children but will be asked to make difficult decisions about the school and pressured to keep the school open as long as possible as well as acting as a contact tracer.

Having been through this myself today - you call the DfE initially who give basic advice. Once you have an outbreak it goes to what used to be PHE.

In terms of the advise given, either we had done the right things or they just agree with you all the time!

So @daisybrown37 do you mean the DfE advise on single cases, but once you have more than one (more than two?) it gets handed on to public health?

Re number of cases.

Personally im pleased the numbers have gone up. I'll cavet that heavily though.

Numbers had to go up considerably for track and trace to be catching up with test shortages and spiralling positivity rates.

So its a good thing provided the positivity rate peaks and starts to decline in areas with high numbers of cases.

But if track and trace isn't getting on top of those numbers thats a very worrying sign.

I don't think we will get sufficient information until a week on Friday on that, and by then you'd hope to see at least a slowing of cases in local lockdown areas - exceptions to this being university campuses / cities with lots of students due to the sheer size of the influx of people moving.

Is there any data that lists weekly estimated cases since March? I know we all say keep calm, there were an estimated 100,000 a day in March before lockdown, but I’m interested to compare the number of current cases to May/June/July before we had testing up and running to give me an idea of how current cases compare.

[quote MRex]@Layladylay234 - this has even more detailed info if you want it than the main dashboard: www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/.

(@BigChocFrenzy, should it go on the next links? I think it came up in the last thread, but wasn't picked up as a key resource.)[/quote]
....
Yes, looks v useful and I'll add it

Sorry I didn't see it on the old thread

The Department “for” Education. The department that incubated the chick Cummings at the behest of M Gove. No, we have nothing to fear.

@Augustbreeze

So *@daisybrown37* do you mean the DfE advise on single cases, but once you have more than one (more than two?) it gets handed on to public health?

That was my experience today. The DfE made a referral to Local Health Authority. We actually also called them but they had the details already.

They did a risk assessment with the Head Teacher.

To be honest it was a similar process to what we followed with PHE last week (before it switched to DfE) but without 3.5 hours on hold!

Universities seem to be doing a lot of their own testing and if they are counted as private tests presumably they wont be showing up in the national figures. I hope someone at ONS is onto this.

I've heard of several outbreaks at universities already and a lot of the students are not even there yet as they had staggered arrival days to make social distancing easier.

Cases rising everywhere, gone up a lot in London so the mayor right to be concerned.

If a family are infected at more or less the same time - bringing it back from holiday - do you think they count one as holiday and the rest as household contacts? And when students get infected in a pub is that going to be household contacts for all bar one? I have no faith in the testing data at all.

Sorry just to add - if there two unrelated cases they may not go to PHE, they get involved in what they class as an outbreak. So potentially linked cases.

124 positive tests at Glasgow Uni

Well in France we know only have 2 départements in red, about 12 cities in pink, and 32 départements in green. «This is good news» I hear you all cry.

No, this is a spectacular demonstration of moving the goalposts

The two areas in red are not in lockdown more or less only because we’re not calling it lockdown (restaurants and bars closed, all leisure venues closed, wfh where possible etc). The pink towns are frankly not far off a lockdown (gyms closed, cinemas closed, no more than 10 people in a public place, bars and restaurants to shut early).

Obviously schools are staying open everywhere though. And the primary school «not a contact of a positive case» is still in force even in those zones.

And it’s a totally minor complaint, but we’re being told to pay subs for the kids sports clubs etc. But one of those pink towns is our département capital, and the département is on alert. I don’t really want to pay out for three kids if they’re going to close everything down in 3 weeks. It’s so minor, and seems silly, but we go on to basic pay if we’re not teaching in person, and I’m still not convinced that they’re not going to put us into local lock down...

Sorry, I wasn’t entirely clear. The French government announced this evening that they’re changing the indicators they look at to decide what level of alert an area is in.

They’re looking at incidence in general pop, incidence among the elderly, and proportion of Covid patients in ICU. And they’re changed the thresholds

Just place marking as I’d dropped off!

I have follows all these threads with great interest- a huge thank you to all the level headed people on here.

I wanted to point out something from my nearest town of Leicester. We have had high cases for a long time, things have improved a bit, but I think it's fair to say that figures have been worrying for months.

Yet hospital admissions and deaths have remained quite low. We haven't seen the dreaded increase of either. I'm unsure why, but I thought it's worth consideration....

Germany
A very slow rise over the last several weeks to 11,003 lab-confirmed cases over the last 7 days,

giving 7-day incidence 13.2 / 100,000
with the large state of Bavaria having been hit worst from the beginning and continuing to have comparatively high cases (~ 20 / 100,000)

National 4-day and 7-day R hover around 0.9 - 1.1, both currently slightly