Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 20

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 20 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
Modelling real number of infections February to date
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

Request to posters giving a link:
Please do so in full, so people can see in advance what they are clicking
Also at least a brief title so we know what the link is about

While schools not being "fully open" is a concern the alternative would be school shutdowns as in March. I understood that all the other measures and restrictions in place were partly to give schools a fighting chance of staying open.

@fyzz
Agree but I think government need to be aware that especially in some areas some kids are going to need to SI again and again and again. This has huge mental health implications and also economic ones- I am self employed and when/if my kids have to SI that will mean no income for me for 2 weeks every time. Some of these parents will be single mothers with no other income. Luckily my dh has a good salary.

@GetAMoveOnTroodon

I’ve built in a “Highest Cases per 100k of Population” table. Will be in the daily emails from tomorrow! Hope it’s helpful. And thanks for the nudge to get this in - it had been on the long finger for a while!

Mrex That looks a really small additional absence in schools, atm anyway

Obviously a pain for families who have to stay off school / work, but the figures are much lower than one might think from anecdata on MN and elsewhere

Let's see how / if this changes as we proceed through Autumn and into winter

I wonder about staff absences though,
which would be the likely driver later on if many more schools do close

@littleowl1
That sounds a fab addition. Thank you again for your hard work on this.

@BigChocFrenzy - unless we assume that the type of school who doesn't report attendance is the same type to have made zero distancing efforts and therefore have closed to larger numbers of students / closed outright. The DofE text suggests they checked for this, but it's the same text as last week so I don't know if we can be absolutely certain.

@BigChocFrenzy

I wonder about staff absences though, which would be the likely driver later on if many more schools do close

It already has for at least two schools in the NE.

I wonder about staff absences though A school near me has had to close entirely for a deep clean and then re-open on a rota basis because one member of staff tested positive and several others have had to isolate. This left insufficient staff to cover the school.

agree that teacher illness is the bigger issue. Absolutely incomprehensible IMO that government has not put in extra funding for supply teachers. Plenty of supply teachers out there ready to work yet schools are reluctant as they have such a tiny budget for them.

Some concerning percentage positive test numbers in Scotland today.
Glasgow 20.88%
Edinburgh 17.54%
Scotland. 11.5%
This is not just students driven either, as 1/3 of cases today are in the over 40 age group.

@BigChocFrenzy

I mean winter being the worst as far as future waves go

Most predictions atm have a winter 2nd wave being less severe than the 1st in Mrch-April

SAGE predicted a reasonable worst scenario of 85k over winter.

On the one hand, we know more abut the illness, and if people can be treated, we have steroids etc.

On the other hand, the NHS is normally very stretched in winter and flu+ covid is supposed to potentially double covid mortality.

So there is potential for winter being worse than March/ April.

Thanks @littleowl1

Just reading this paragraph:
Schools are considered fully open if they are able to provide face-to-face teaching for all pupils on roll for the whole school day and they have not asked a group of pupils to self-isolate. Where schools are not fully open, most pupils are still attending. When pupils are unable to attend school because they are complying with clinical or public health advice, schools are expected to be able to immediately offer them access to remote education.

So does this mean a school is NOT fully open if they ask a bunch of kids in different classes not to attend due to a positive test in a pupil who got the bus.

Or is it NOT fully open if they only ask 'close contacts' of a positive case to isolate but everyone else in the case can still attend.

My point people does it have to be a FULL class closure to be considered 'not fully open' as to me this sound like a possible way to make your figures look bigger.

One of my friends has a son sitting at home for two weeks because a classmate tested positive but only a handful were sent home. Its not entirely clear whether the school is 'closed' or the pupil has merely been asked to isolate. He has NOT been offered remote learning because most of the rest of the class are still in school and its impossible for the teachers to provide both in school and remote learning for the same group at the same time.

@RedToothBrush i would say they are fully open in those cases.
In our school a batch of children were sent home because their childminder is positive. This is nothing to do with the school - HT clarified this to me when i said why weren't we told (several children in my kids' class affected). As far as he is concerned he is fully open, the fact that some kids have been sent home for reasons beyond his control are nothing to do with him nor was it his decision. Ditto there will be individual children at home where their parents are positive I imagine. I think 'not fully open' would insinuate the school has taken the decision itself (or been told to) to send children home, but not necessarily a full class/bubble.

[quote whatsnext2]Report of patients in critical care since 1 September and in total from Covid. Breaks it down by age, bmi, deprivation, ethnicity, etc

www.icnarc.org/DataServices/Attachments/Download/baa7de02-3f00-eb11-912b-00505601089b[/quote]
@BigChocFrenzy can I just check my posts are getting through? page 24 from Sunday

I wondered that too RTB. I don't think your situation describes a partial closure as the class still runs but that definition suggest it does.

We are having so many students at the moment off one day coded X (special code) and then changes to I (ill ) the next day. 'had a test and it's negative. Just a bug, back tomorrow'. I am really sceptical about the rapid turnaround of test results must say! We are a 13-18 school so a real exam factory and lots of anxiety about attendance.

Red our school has not been impacted by Covid yet.

BUT the school have given links to home learning if your child is self isolating.

I've not looked to see what it is and I don't yet know how similar it would be to if they are in class but at least its something. So I guess it must be at individual school level.

I know they are getting further plans in place to offer lessons through teams but I guess they haven't had to do that yet.

we haven't had any official closures yet but just been made aware that 'home learning' is now put on the class webpage weekly - in anticipation of people being off I guess. Is definitely a lot to ask for for teachers to have to deal with several kids off for isolation as well as teaching. If everyone sent home however I would expect the teachers to be on the ball with all this. Pleased that school is being proactive.

"SAGE predicted a reasonable worst scenario of 85k over winter"

Currently only the worst case scenarios are that it will be worse, not the mainstream ones
Hence why I posted "most predictions"

It is possible that winter will be worse, but atm the scientists are predicting it probably won't be
The outlook for winter may worsen or improve, as the year progresses

eeeek 7143

Ouch.

whah

Liverpool latest positivity

Report published 29th September 2020
Cases data from week 20th-26th September 2020

Data extracted covering testing up to 26th September 2020 show that the total number of confirmed cases for the last 7 days is 1323, an increase of 501 cases on the previous week. The latest weekly rate of Covid-19 in Liverpool is 265.6 per 100,000 population and the latest positivity testing rate* is 15.7%.

Yesterday 15.2% so still going up.

Liverpool's mayor has been calling for a full Mersey lockdown today.

It might be getting to a point where there may not be a viable alternative as there isn't much more that can be done in the way of restrictions. I thought the case of Rainhill Hill closing after widespread testing in the school identified numerous asymtomatic cases in this context.

Also just a point about 'missing data'. To use Warrington again as an example as i suspect there is a similar issues elsewhere. The number of cases is still continuing to go up, after a temporary lull. Restrictions have now been in place for a week. However the first local walk in testing centre in the town centre was only opened YESTERDAY. So the question is, is capacity being expanded quickly enough to keep pace with expedental growth? I find it hard to believe it is.

So I suspect we will see a lot of people in the next few days saying that restrictions aren't working as we aren't seeing a reduction in numbers BUT I counter this by saying we didn't know the scale of the problem due to lack of testing, and this may have led to a surge of cases which would have been avoided if there had been local testing facilities available.

The focus is on the restrictions as being the thing that reduces cases - I think this might be a flawed way of looking at things meaning there is a massive oversight.

When people look at the data for a number of places under local lockdown and they say 'the restrictions are working', don't automatically assume its purely a failure of restrictions thats led to a continued rise in cases as I don't think its likely to be as black and white as that.

The data isn't telling us much about testing facilities per head of population.

Is anyone aware of a map of all current testing facilities to get an idea about location / accessability? Or if there has been any kind of up date on whether the the number of cases in relation to testing capacity? It WAS 30% of cases in the NW but only 15% of testing facilities but I don't know what the current situation is, and I think its information I'd be keen to see. My fear is that actually given the rise in the NW this has possibly got worse and there is probably a similar pattern in the NE because everyone is looking at the headline figure of the number of cases correlating with a continued rise in cases, but aren't paying enough attention to that positivity rate and testing capacity/accessibly in the worst hit areas.

TBH I'm not entirely sure how you'd do a measure of 'accessbility' to testing sites but it should be something that is looked at keenly.

Over 1800 in the north west....