Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 20

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 20 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
Modelling real number of infections February to date
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

Request to posters giving a link:
Please do so in full, so people can see in advance what they are clicking
Also at least a brief title so we know what the link is about

Red - our school has 3 entire year groups off. That's out of 5. Is our school still considered to be open?

"When pupils are unable to attend school because they are complying with clinical or public health advice, schools are expected to be able to immediately offer them access to remote education."

If this not being done, parents should contact their head, their school governors, then their MP
Some schools may be unable to fulfill this requirement without more resources, e.g. support staff for those isolating
and additional budget won't be given without kicking up a fuss

This situation is likely to continue for the next 9 months or so; hence failure to provide remote education needs addressing,
even if it takes longer than the isolation period of 1 particular child. It is about all children.

@Timeforanotherusername

Red our school has not been impacted by Covid yet.

BUT the school have given links to home learning if your child is self isolating.

I've not looked to see what it is and I don't yet know how similar it would be to if they are in class but at least its something. So I guess it must be at individual school level.

I know they are getting further plans in place to offer lessons through teams but I guess they haven't had to do that yet.

My fear is that some kids are going to 'drop off the radar' in terms of what is provided and in attendance / whether the school counts as open/closed.

I know there is widespread disparity in how schools handle positive cases, with some taking a hard line of closing the whole bubble but others being a lot more 'flexible' with only sending a small group out.

21 deaths north east
24 deaths north west

0 in south east and west....

7,143 new cases
71 deaths

Yep, I was expecting a record high, going by T of 1.2 - 1.5, daily growth 3-8%,
the increase in cases over the last 2 Sundays and the likely delays in test results, especially over Sunday

R of 1.2 - 1.5

@RedToothBrush agreed there does seem to be some disparity in how schools handle positive cases but our head is adamant that he acts on PHE advice and it is actually totally out of his hands.

@Dustballs

According to various reports ‘ The DfE defines schools as “fully open” if they are able to provide face-to-face teaching for all pupils on roll for the whole school day and they have not asked a group of pupils to self-isolate.‘

Red thats exactly what would happen at our school. The levels of Pupil Premium in school are much higher than national average and many of the children would have done no learning through lockdown.

As a school it is very proactive and has really been making a difference to the lives of many kids. But there is only so much they can do.

They have said they will close a whole year group down if positive case but we will see. This may be a deliberate decision though.

BCF do we have an R value for the NW only or the NE only?

Global Covid deaths now exceed 1 million

A grim milestone
Excess deaths compared to the historical average for the same period would be higher still

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/29/global-coronavirus-deaths-pass-1m-with-no-sign-rate-slowing

"But the official figure probably underestimates the true total, a senior World Health Organization official said"

I understand that they are closing whole year groups down if the positive case was in school or mixing after the test was taken but before results.

It is absolutely not the heads making the decisions!

We allegedly still have only one staff case and no pupils. I don't believe it for one moment. Attendance is low.

@RedToothBrush

BCF do we have an R value for the NW only or the NE only?

..... Yes link to R in the OP gives the official national & regional R numbers and growth rates

Latest update was Friday:

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk

cheers.

I was honestly expecting it to be higher today after yesterday’s clearly very artificial low.

On the school discussion.

1. indy school response rate is terrible. With all schools having LMS why does the gov have to ask? Technically this should be easy to implement, chuck the data into a datalake, and use BI tools to mine. DfE had more than 6 months to think this through ... grrrr....
2. Indy schools are going to be drivers most potentially. They are less likely to close, as parent pressure is huge. And the parents who pay for their kid's school express that they expect proper service for their money and online is not proper. The parent who get bursary feel they need to send their kids in so they won't be left behind and it's like an obligation thing to be "loyal" now that they got help with funding.
3. They also tend to have much wider catchment areas so they are in the perfect place to actually spread the virus into multiple boroughs and areas.

Private schools often have larger grounds, meaning more scope for spreading out, portacabins, sports halls that can be temporary extra classrooms, etc.

I was also expecting a higher number. Almost 1,400-1,500 cases are catch ups from the weekend.

The hospital admissions for England continue to look positive - 244 on 27/9 vs 237 on 20/9.

London admissions are down to 23 on 27/9 from 38 on 20/7. I hope Sadiq Khan (or his team) are following the numbers.

@Abraid2

Private schools often have larger grounds, meaning more scope for spreading out, portacabins, sports halls that can be temporary extra classrooms, etc.

They’re also likely to have much smaller class sizes.

I would have also thought that private school students are a lot less likely to live in multi generational households

Re: the North - hospital admissions in both North West and North East may be plateauing. In fact, North West might even be going down although it is too early to say if It is a blip or a real trend.

@wintertravel1980 I think inpatient and ICU numbers are more useful that admissions give a broader picture than just admissions.... those are increasing in the badly effected regions

Private schools are quite often in v old buildings with tiny rooms not purpose built at all. With corridors like rabbit warrens. I don't think it's quite as simple for them as people may think....

@wintertravel1980 the in patient and icu numbers for north east and west are going up v dramatically.....

Todays figures are high - I suppose that's due to be expected after the last few days of lower numbers.
Deaths seem to be higher, is that due to the weekend 'lag' too?