Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 20

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 20 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
Modelling real number of infections February to date
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

Request to posters giving a link:
Please do so in full, so people can see in advance what they are clicking
Also at least a brief title so we know what the link is about

@Timeforanotherusername

That's really interesting.

It has been noted that there are disproportionate numbers of women aged 20-40 being admitted to hospital, and we have been speculating as to why.

You may imagine the lines of argument.

So it's fascinating that, though technically at less risk, because being male is more of a risk factor, women are in ICU in equal numbers with men.

Just to say I love this thread and a big thank you to BigChoc and the other regular contributors.
I like the fact that it is factual and data driven, bar the occasional "my DD has a runny nose and I can't get a test".
I wish I could contribute but while I understand it all and read all the links I'm just not clever enough to add much!

Looking at the tables for cumulative deaths in both the UK and Germany, the higher risk for males is in the 20-40 age group too

In Germany (the RKI publish handy tables) men have died at about 2.5 x the rate of women - once we allow for the increasing % of women in the 70+ population

*- NHS/111/999 triage date is showing a positive trend; and

• Even Zoe estimated daily transmission rate has flattened for the first time ever since mid-August (the absolute number of nearly 20,000 is, of course, very high but I feel the trend is more important than the actual level)*

I think it was reasonably clear there was a distinct bump in both of these due to the normal rhinovirus peak at this time of year, so I'm not sure the reduction now actually suggests much about covid, it could just be an artifact of the "normal" rhinovirus pattern and how it influences behaviour. There could be a genuine underlying rise in covid triage/symptoms that weren't caught in that data.

here we can speculate but as yet that's all it is.

There are more woman being infected in thatnage group.

There are multiple factors that could explain that away, even that more woman are teachers or take on more of the childcare than males.

From my experience (and this is my experience only) I tend to socialise more than DH. And I would argue that its the same for many of my friends. Especially when the kids were younger. I know that won't be the same for all.

So it's fascinating that, though technically at less risk, because being male is more of a risk factor, women are in ICU in equal numbers with men.

Hmmm.... the latest ICNARC report actually shows that men still outnumber women in ICU.

Out of 291 people admitted into ICU after Sep 1, 205 (70%) are men. Only 86 (30%) are women.

winter that was a dig at me due to another thread!

@wintertravel1980

So it's fascinating that, though technically at less risk, because being male is more of a risk factor, women are in ICU in equal numbers with men.

Hmmm.... the latest ICNARC report actually shows that men still outnumber women in ICU.

Out of 291 people admitted into ICU after Sep 1, 205 (70%) are men. Only 86 (30%) are women.

No dig! really, I'm very interested in this as an ECV mum as you can imagine.

But I hadn't seen the figures, I was responding (with interest) to @Times's post and comment earlier.

It might well happen that some sort of discrepancy develops, along these lines though, this is a space to be watched.

Ah, I guess the point is that for the group under 40 the ICU numbers for men and women are almost equal.

It is indeed the case but we are only talking about 33 people (both men and women) The group is too small to draw any meaningful conclusions.

@herecomesthsun - it's an interesting note about there being more women in ICU, but more male deaths. So many possibilities:

• occupation
• women get tested and seek medical help sooner, so they reach ICU rather than dying
• the medication trialled so far works better on women
• male cardiovascular health is generally poorer in that age group, affecting recovery (example stats: www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3362050/#!po=0.724638)
• women hug more, so more get infected.

Harvard review suggested social and occupational factors: www.hsph.harvard.edu/news/features/more-men-than-women-are-dying-from-covid-19-why/ (easy to read article, links to the research).

Going against all that, Chinese research suggested equal infection rates, but a clinically more severe illness in males: www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2020.00152/full. I remember we wondered if it was smoking or other factors, but now we see the same effects in other countries maybe that's not it.

BCF
Other research indicates that immunity to Covid probably lasts about a year

Do you think that means now to Feb will be ripples.
March onwards will be the 2nd wave, when those who have had it (possibly asymptomatically) first time around may catch it a 2nd time?

I appreciate that's pure speculation/conjecture.
Just interested in the opinion of others.

@pussycatinboots - a lot depends on community rates; if there is widespread infection then those with immunity get a booster, as their immune system recognises and fights off the virus. Second wave definitions aren't clear, it could be some sort of virus mutation, but people keep referring to current rises as second wave when arguably it's the first wave revisiting, because it wasn't sufficiently suppressed.

I haven't looked at the figures yet but here is a recent stat re schools:

*The number of schools in England affected by coronavirus outbreaks has continued to rise, with secondary schools hardest hit, according to official figures published by the Department for Education in England.

The proportion of schools reporting that they were not “fully open” because of Covid-19 cases has risen by 50%, while the number of schools closed completely appears to have doubled in the space of a week.

While 93% of schools said they were fully open, the proportion who reported they were not fully open due to suspected or confirmed cases of Covid-19 jumped to 6% last week, compared with 4% the week before.

Across England that would equate to more than 1,000 state schools classed as not fully open. The DfE defines schools as “fully open” if they are able to provide face-to-face teaching for all pupils on roll for the whole school day and they have not asked a group of pupils to self-isolate.

The number of secondary schools unable to fully open increased dramatically in the space of a week. On 17 September 92% were fully open, but by last Thursday the proportion fell to 84%. That would suggest that more than 500 secondary schools have been affected, which would be one in six. The DfE said that the closures were “mostly due to Covid-19 related reasons”.

Pupil absences remained unchanged at 88% across all schools, but in secondary schools the absence rate dipped further to 84% from 86% the previous week.

There was also a small increase in the number of schools closed completely last week. The DfE said that 99.8% of state schools and settings were open in some form, compared with 99.9% the week before.

That would suggest around 40 schools in England were completely closed at the end of last week*

Several studies have suggested oestrogen may provide a protective effect - good summary here
covid.joinzoe.com/post/covid-hormones-oestrogen

Piggy

That makes sobering reading. I wonder how many children are at home rather than in school now, and what numbers are getting any form of online learning (with staff numbers stretched in school, presumably teachers there can't do dedicated at home materials as well). Also, wonder if there's any follow up on how many who are isolating get symptoms (or if any of their close contacts gets symptoms given that a high % of children asymptomatic).

Mrex
That's what I thought - this isn't a 2nd wave as we didn't kill off/stop in its tracks the first wave.
If you haven't had it and you really don't want it you're still vulnerable to it. If you've had it once v mildly, then the next time it might be milder still.

wonder if there's any follow up on how many who are isolating get symptoms
I really hope there's research on this, and stratified by age. The actual infection risks need to be identified.

Wales cases seems to be holding fairly steady at 366 cases, sadly 3 deaths today
I’m watching Caerphilly cases and they seem to have gone right down which is good news as they entered local lockdown a fortnight or so ago. Wales seem to have much clearer ideas regarding local lockdowns and from what my family tell me there is a lot of hard work going in from authorities at local level. I’m in GM- not saying nothing is going on but I’m not aware.

Surely it should be part of the bargain in local lockdown areas- people do their bit while the authorities do theirs

Afaik there is no official record of schools that are closed- probably deliberately. Read somewhere that the dfe send an email out weekly asking schools to respond and get their figures from there but potentially some schools are far too busy/stressed/overwhelmed to actually respond. Local media doing a good job of covering the local picture which in GM is fairly horrific.

The detailed schools attendance data is here, I think I posted the link on another thread, or maybe dreaming about posting links, one of the two:
explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak.

(@BigChocFrenzy - I dread to say it for yet one more, but should it be in the long list?)

And yes, not all schools respond - but actually proportionally that looks to be par for the course going back years, every week a small percentage just don't seem to get the figures in.

Table showing Proportion of fully open state schools for 'Table 1 Daily attendance in education settings during the COVID19 outbreak From 1 September' from 'Attendance in education and early years settings during the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak' in England between 2020 Week 37 and 2020 Week 39

Looks like a fairly consistent 1.2% additional absence emerging this week, largely driven by secondary schools (enough to maybe double that).

@pussycatinboots

BCF Other research indicates that immunity to Covid probably lasts about a year

Do you think that means now to Feb will be ripples.
March onwards will be the 2nd wave, when those who have had it (possibly asymptomatically) first time around may catch it a 2nd time?

I appreciate that's pure speculation/conjecture.
Just interested in the opinion of others.

.... imo, since only a small % have immunity atm, I'd expect winter to be the worst, with spring much better and summer the virus dying right down, more so than this summer with the additional % being immune and also maybe some of the most vulnerable being vaccinated by then

I mean winter being the worst as far as future waves go

Most predictions atm have a winter 2nd wave being less severe than the 1st in Mrch-April

@MRex

The detailed schools attendance data is here, I think I posted the link on another thread, or maybe dreaming about posting links, one of the two: explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak.

(@BigChocFrenzy - I dread to say it for yet one more, but should it be in the long list?)

... ooh that looks very useful Mrex I can't remember seeing it on these threads before

Yep, adding it to the next OP