Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 20

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 20 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
Modelling real number of infections February to date
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

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Request to posters giving a link:
Please do so in full, so people can see in advance what they are clicking
Also at least a brief title so we know what the link is about

4044 my dashboard says. Very good news if true.

@Frazzled2207

4044 my dashboard says. Very good news if true.

Yes seems to be falling dramatically

I think possibly the spike last week was due to catch up factors with people not being able to get tests the week before.
I really hope things level out a bit, or at least, stop increasing at such a dramatic rate .

How does that compare with last Monday? The rule of 6 has been in now for 2 weeks? So perhaps having a steadying effect. Obviously will depend on what happens over the next few weeks as to whether it's a blip or a sustained plateau/drop.

Really hope I'm being overly pessimistic here, but could it be because people have given up trying to get a test?

@Augustbreeze

Possibly, presumably if that is the case the percentage of positive tests will continue to increase even if numbers stabilise?

@Augustbreeze that’s my concern and that people could be avoiding testing because they can’t afford to take time off to quarantine (although presumably both measures will lead to an increase in the longer run).

It's 226,900 tests, so not the most they've reached but not terrible either. The pillar one tests are lower, as they seem to be on a Monday, so that could have an effect.

1883 in hospital in England, so continuing to go up- but not at scary April rates

[quote Sunshinegirl82]@Augustbreeze

Possibly, presumably if that is the case the percentage of positive tests will continue to increase even if numbers stabilise?[/quote]
Sorry I'm probably being dense, but why would this be? Unless you mean that those with worse symptoms are more likely to persist, and also more likely to be positive (I think)?

Hospital admissions might be plateauing - 244 new admissions for England on Sep 26.

Weekend numbers of reported admissions are always on the low side but it is pretty certain COVID cases are no longer doubling every week.

@Augustbreeze
I was trying to feel cautiously optimistic as that's two days of drops, but I do wonder if people just aren't bothering to get tested because they don't want to isolate or because they've given up trying to get tests having heard how difficult it was.
Zoe app was on around 20k this morning, so still going up, but I don't know how accurate that is.

If numbers are still rising but we are not catching large numbers of those cases with testing then test positivity will creep up. A bit like how we had similar official case numbers to now in April but the percentage of positive tests was something like 40% suggesting that actually there were huge numbers of cases that weren't being caught by testing.

Total numbers of processed tests (Pillar 1 and Pillar 2) are going up so, in fact, we are getting more people tested.

That's good, hopefully once the new lab open that will improve access again. Anecdotally, my DC seem to be over the initial snotty nose etc, I wonder if things are calming down a bit on that front generally which will help.

I am sure I read 12.5% positivity in Liverpool.

@Piggywaspushed

I am sure I read 12.5% positivity in Liverpool.

You did. That was the Friday figure.

Today:
liverpool.gov.uk/covidcases
^Report published 28th September 2020
Cases data from week 19th-25th September 2020^
Data extracted covering testing up to 25th September 2020 show that the total number of confirmed cases for the last 7 days is 1306, an increase of 577 cases on the previous week. The latest weekly rate of Covid-19 in Liverpool is 262.2 per 100,000 population and the latest positivity testing rate* is 15.2%.

Not great news.

However Liverpool does seem to be the place with the biggest problem with the positivity rate.

I do think that this may also be because if the people being tested are students then the positivity rate might skyrocket briefly atm because you would be testing a target more likely to have caught covid due to the close proximity of living and socialising with other students. It means a very high R rate but if its due to a student outbreak and is contained, its not quite as bad as in the general population as a whole.

It would provide an alternative explanation than purely people giving up getting tested. It would mean targeting of the right people successfully in a high risk population.

Thank you against to all those who take the time to delve into all the figures being generated at the moment

I can’t be optimistic about the case figures today because I feel so many people have really taken the ‘don’t waste test’ message to heart plus the actual problems in some areas of getting a test. I just don’t have faith in the case numbers at the moment.

I was kind of hoping schools having such strict policies would flush out cases that would have otherwise gone undetected and had a positive effect on the spread (silver lining to my nervousness around sending my own dd back) but that’s been shattered now from what I can tell.

School in Merseyside closes after 40/1100 found to be positive in whole school testing, only 15 had symptoms. This is the first example of the whole school testing that was mentioned in the DfE guidance actually happening.

PHE seem to think it's community transmission leaking into school.

<a class="break-all" href="http://go.mumsnet.com/?xs=1&id=470X1554755&url=www.sthelensstar.co.uk/news/18753228.principal-pens-letter-parents-four-students-staff-member-test-positive-coronavirus-rainford-high/" target="_blank">https://www.sthelensstar.co.uk/news/18753228.principal-pens-letter-parents-four-students-staff-member-test-positive-coronavirus-rainford-high/

*first example I've heard of anyway!

There were 4362 cases last Monday so even if we just compare Monday to Monday to avoid weekend issues it’s a drop.

We processed slightly less tests last Monday too so of processed tests today’s number is out of a slightly bigger pool.

Obviously could be issues in that were people most need tests (Liverpool) they are harder to get which will impact figures but I do think the last few days maybe early signs that the rule of six could be quite an effective policy (and I was pretty skeptical myself!)

testing figures no longer mean a thing without the positivity rate. If tests are being better targeted then the rate should go up a bit but that's a big jump in Liverpool.

On the positive side the hospital admissions are not rocketing up as they were in April. I'm also optimisitic that getting infections out of the way now might mean they are less severe than they would be in winter. The death rate should be lower than at the start of the epidemic.

The Liverpool and Merseyside data are not just being driven by a university outbreak (although there is one in Liverpool). Knowsley has 236 cases per 100k and has no student population/ contained outbreak, it is all community transmission and cases. Knowsley council are doing an outbreak control information Zoom session soon to try and get info out to residents and businesses.

Knowsley is one of the most deprived councils in the country. There was always a concern about a covid out break hitting the area because it was one of the ten most vulnerable councils in the country due to poverty and underlying health.

But yes I agree, I think it a combination of things driving it, but I also think student outbreaks will push up the positivity rate notably too.

I follow this guy on twitter and looking at specimen dates, it is looking like there may be a surge from weekend results that haven't come back yet.