Meet the Other Phone. A phone that grows with your child.

Meet the Other Phone.
A phone that grows with your child.

Buy now

Please or to access all these features

Covid

Mumsnet doesn't verify the qualifications of users. If you have medical concerns, please consult a healthcare professional.

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 20

970 replies

BigChocFrenzy · 22/09/2020 22:46

Welcome to thread 20 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
Modelling real number of infections February to date
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

Our STUDIES Corner

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

Request to posters giving a link:
Please do so in full, so people can see in advance what they are clicking
Also at least a brief title so we know what the link is about

OP posts:
Thread gallery
82
MarshaBradyo · 28/09/2020 10:31

@Augustbreeze

Andy Burnham was very sensible to hear on R4 Today this morning. 10pm curfew probably needs to be changed, just resulting in drinking in the streets and house, at least in Manchester. Said Antwerp had a curfew but put 9pm limit on supermarket sales of alcohol and policing on the streets.
Agree I thought he was good
Augustbreeze · 28/09/2020 10:33

Also (just been reminded by the Will London lockdown thread) saying we need to move to a national system of tiers of restrictions so everyone understands what's happening and why. He's always so sensible.

wintertravel1980 · 28/09/2020 10:35

NHS triage data seems to be moving in the right direction. The download is from the twitter account @UKCovid19Stats.

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 20
NeurotrashWarrior · 28/09/2020 10:40

red I do get that; I also see local bars with students in them.

What is the answer?

And yes there was a rave on the moor apparently.

MRex · 28/09/2020 10:46

@RedToothBrush - that was really interesting, thanks. Startling how low the early take-up rates were too, we would surely see 24-45% requesting a vaccine as abject failure. I define common sense as "the application of positive judgement without the ability to articulate facts and logical argument to back up the point of view". Defining common sense in terms of perception alone doesn't allow for evidence or effective logical debate points to be found that actually supports the viewpoint. The facts used in argument that did not back up "common sense" in this case doesn't mean "common sense" will always be wrong.

It's interesting to see the details; the EU of course already suggested that vaccines should go to those most in need throughout the world before wider populations in individual countries, a viewpoint the UK and USA have disagreed with by their purchases. A few other points seem ripe for debate further down the line:

  1. is a vaccine helpful during a major outbreak in an area, or does the time taken to develop immunity make it pointless - that time taken to develop immunity will need to be front-page news
  2. the public perception of failure of a vaccine because of an epidemic that can cause more broad-reaching issues, unclear if that will be an issue for anyone except conspiracy theorists now
  3. managing the short-term; if there is a heavy outbreak in just a few regions and lighter in others, might even vulnerable, health and care workers be asked to wait - OR, more likely not asked to wait, but loud criticism of the government whichever prioritisation path is chosen
  4. the arguments to import US vaccines couple with government / medical council concern from previous manufacturing errors; Russia and China will have vaccines out, will there be arguments that people have a "right" to be given them? Given how the world works now, will there even be a black market in vaccines being posted out?
Frazzled2207 · 28/09/2020 10:51

@MarshaBradyo
@Augustbreeze
didn't hear him this morning but he usually has the right idea IMO. Unfortunately the Mayor of GM has quite a lot of influence but very little actual power or budget. I think people in GM are more likely to listen to him than Boris though. I hope he returns to parliament one day, he was a very good SofS for Health but not experienced enough at the time to have a proper shot at the leadership.

I heard elsewhere that it was Gove that wanted the 10pm kick out and other cabinet ministers were arguing for last orders at 10pm rather than kick out. That surely would have been far more sensible.

MRex · 28/09/2020 10:51

@wintertravel1980 / anyone else looking at the lovely triage chart (anything going down I will classify as lovely), the detailed dataset is here:
digital.nhs.uk/data-and-information/publications/statistical/mi-potential-covid-19-symptoms-reported-through-nhs-pathways-and-111-online/latest (spreadsheet below or click through for dashboard).

IloveJKRowling · 28/09/2020 11:14

Better for them to have a less than ideal education temporarily than a dead mum.

Flowers You are right. And unfortunately as things are going, children will have dead Mums and Dads.

This is the unpalatable truth that no-one seems to want to say.

The way schools have gone back IS NOT OK - perfect environments for spread, no quick testing so no fast shutting down of transmission chains. It forces vulnerable teachers and parents to take on huge risks.

I'm not ECV (as far as I know) but I do have underlying conditions and I feel like I'm being forced by the government to gamble with our lives. It's a complete gamble sending them to school. No option for homeschooling at all at the moment (even when isolating).

I did not feel like this in summer when DD in a small, socially distanced class. And her school could do that again - all they need is some money for extra TAs. It's just so unbelievably depressing and I don't know what to do. I feel like I'm living in some kind of parallel universe at the schools - they are operating just as normal, completely the same as March. Everyone else seems to be acting as normal. I'm one of about 4 people wearing a mask and people touching each other, chatting as normal.

CharlieParley · 28/09/2020 11:16

[quote MRex]@RedToothBrush - that was really interesting, thanks. Startling how low the early take-up rates were too, we would surely see 24-45% requesting a vaccine as abject failure. I define common sense as "the application of positive judgement without the ability to articulate facts and logical argument to back up the point of view". Defining common sense in terms of perception alone doesn't allow for evidence or effective logical debate points to be found that actually supports the viewpoint. The facts used in argument that did not back up "common sense" in this case doesn't mean "common sense" will always be wrong.

It's interesting to see the details; the EU of course already suggested that vaccines should go to those most in need throughout the world before wider populations in individual countries, a viewpoint the UK and USA have disagreed with by their purchases. A few other points seem ripe for debate further down the line:

  1. is a vaccine helpful during a major outbreak in an area, or does the time taken to develop immunity make it pointless - that time taken to develop immunity will need to be front-page news
  2. the public perception of failure of a vaccine because of an epidemic that can cause more broad-reaching issues, unclear if that will be an issue for anyone except conspiracy theorists now
  3. managing the short-term; if there is a heavy outbreak in just a few regions and lighter in others, might even vulnerable, health and care workers be asked to wait - OR, more likely not asked to wait, but loud criticism of the government whichever prioritisation path is chosen
  4. the arguments to import US vaccines couple with government / medical council concern from previous manufacturing errors; Russia and China will have vaccines out, will there be arguments that people have a "right" to be given them? Given how the world works now, will there even be a black market in vaccines being posted out?[/quote]
  5. will there be longterm negative side effects of the vaccine? Is there going to be an honest acknowledgement that this can happen? The government can set up a fund to specifically support those who might suffer adverse reactions in this pandemic, over and above the existing one.

There are so many conspiracy theories already floating around, so many people scared of vaccinating their children, I don't think ignoring this issue will be the best strategy.

6.) Which vaccine? Will there be any choice, or will government make a choice? Will those better off be able to choose a safer version, leaving the less fortunate with only a take it or leave it choice? All of this may influence uptake.

With the swine flu epidemic, there were different vaccines and different advice on who should and who shouldn't receive them, depending on which country you lived in.

By that I mean, I was offered a vaccine for my then under-four-year old here in the UK, that the medical authorities in Germany were saying was counterindicated for that age group. I tried to ask my GP about it, but they just shrugged me off like I was an anti-vaxxer, even though they could see from my kids' records that they had more vaccinations compared to other UK kids, not less (an artefact of living in three different countries that all have slightly different regimes and our steadfast belief in vaccines).

And that was an epidemic where unfortunately the cure turned out to be worse than the disease btw. Because it happened within the last ten years, in my view it would be naive to expect this not to become a hotly discussed topic. They need to plan the right response which cannot be nothing to see here, move along.

tdm1 · 28/09/2020 11:49

@Augustbreeze

Piggy sometimes the invitation doesn't come til the next day
My daughter's invitation still hasn't arrived many days after reporting a sore throat, so I don't think it's automatic anymore
wintertravel1980 · 28/09/2020 12:12

ONS has just released a more detailed survey - Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey: characteristics of people testing positive for COVID-19 in England, September 2020:

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19infectionsinthecommunityinengland/characteristicsofpeopletestingpositiveforcovid19inenglandseptember2020

There are a few interesting points:

-Between 23 July and 10 September, COVID-19 Infection rates have increased primarily in the least deprived areas within each region.
- In recent weeks, COVID-19 positivity rates have been higher amongst people who have travelled abroad, although increases are seen in both those who have and have not travelled.
- There is no evidence that working location is driving the greater increase in positivity rate in younger age groups in recent weeks.

wintertravel1980 · 28/09/2020 12:15

There is also a suggestion that:

Positivity rates have increased over time amongst those aged under 35 years who had socially-distanced direct contact with six or more people aged 18 to 69 years, suggesting socially-distanced direct contact in younger age groups is an increasingly important factor in contracting COVID-19.

However, it is a self-reported definition of a "socially-distant direct contact" and I would question whether responders could be entirely objective when assessing their compliance with social distancing rules.

CoffeeandCroissant · 28/09/2020 12:15

Expert reaction to JCVI’s updated interim advice on priority groups for COVID-19 vaccination.

The Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI) have updated their interim advice on priority groups for COVID-19 vaccination.

Prof Jon Cohen, Emeritus Professor of Infectious Diseases, Brighton & Sussex Medical School, said:

“The publication of an initial discussion of how a COVID vaccine would be rolled out is a welcome and important first step. Sensibly, JCVI (the government’s independent advisory body on the use of vaccines) makes the point that this advice is preliminary and may well change as further information becomes available.

“At present their advice is basically that high risk individuals in health and social care settings would be the top priority, followed sequentially by groups of older people, descending in stages of 5 year intervals (so, first 80 year olds, then 75 year olds etc). On the basis of what we know at the moment, this is logical and reasonable. However, it does not address directly other high risk groups, for example those with serious underlying diseases that make them more vulnerable or people from certain ethnic groups who are also more vulnerable.

“The really tricky issue though will be if the first vaccine to become available offers only limited protection, and (as is certainly possible) is only weakly effective in older people. As JCVI say, this may significantly alter the priority ranking. And even more tricky will be deciding whether a protective efficacy of, say 30% in those over 75, means that the vaccine should not be offered to that group or indeed whether having that vaccine might then be a contraindication to receiving a second, different, but more effective vaccine 6 months later.

“These questions are clearly also in the mind of JCVI and the answers will ned to wait until we start to get hard data coming out of the vaccine trials.”

www.gov.uk/government/publications/priority-groups-for-coronavirus-covid-19-vaccination-advice-from-the-jcvi-25-september-2020/jcvi-updated-interim-advice-on-priority-groups-for-covid-19-vaccination

www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-jcvis-updated-interim-advice-on-priority-groups-for-covid-19-vaccination/

Augustbreeze · 28/09/2020 12:21

Apparently the advice in Glasgow/Wedt of Scotland is now that if one member of a household may have had contact with a positive case, the whole household has to isolate.

Presumably this is because of rising/high rates locally. I wonder if this approach will appear elsewhere?

CoffeeandCroissant · 28/09/2020 12:40

Lots of details on Covid-19 vaccine candidates in this Twitter thread:
mobile.twitter.com/florian_krammer/status/1310372301314101250

conkersarebonkers · 28/09/2020 12:44

Another big drop in new daily case numbers in Scotland today.

26th - 28th: 714 > 344 > 222

The FM thinks the lower-than-expected numbers could be a "weekend effect", so it'll be interesting to see what happens over the next few days.

Numbers in hospital and ICU still rising (+17 and +4 respectively).

Frazzled2207 · 28/09/2020 14:38

Just 10 nhs hospital deaths reported today which is the least in a while. Also Wales numbers seem to be down as well (0 deaths, 286 cases, has been in the high 300s for a few days) Hoping these are signs of some levelling off if not a true decrease. Also maybe a sign of the testing capacity catching up a bit.

EducatingArti · 28/09/2020 14:40

@Augustbreeze

Andy Burnham was very sensible to hear on R4 Today this morning. 10pm curfew probably needs to be changed, just resulting in drinking in the streets and house, at least in Manchester. Said Antwerp had a curfew but put 9pm limit on supermarket sales of alcohol and policing on the streets.
Andy Burnham is my main hope of something being done to sort out the situation in Greater Manchester.
AnyFucker · 28/09/2020 14:52

Nobody seems to listen to Andy B though Confused

IceCreamSummer20 · 28/09/2020 15:03

Thanks @Mrex for those figures. It is heartening to not see huge accelerations amongst under 16s. However I’d still like to see schools up their game with the latest evidence e.g. aerosol transmission (ventilation, masks, small pods, possibly shorter days or half children in different times) with community transmission climbing.

Frazzled2207 · 28/09/2020 15:18

@AnyFucker
I think anyone in GM is more likely to listen to Andy B than Boris.

IceCreamSummer20 · 28/09/2020 15:18

@Augustbreeze

Also (just been reminded by the Will London lockdown thread) saying we need to move to a national system of tiers of restrictions so everyone understands what's happening and why. He's always so sensible.
Yes even though it is probably also wise to be able to locally tailor a response to your population and particular risks too.

In Ireland there have been recent levels of restrictions as shown in the pic.

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 20
IceCreamSummer20 · 28/09/2020 15:49

@wintertravel1980 thanks very interesting. I wish it was more up to date for children, as it’s up to 10th September so won’t measure schools reopening and its effect.

AnyFucker · 28/09/2020 15:51

Unfortunately, it seems that no one is listening to Andy B in London Smile

itsgettingweird · 28/09/2020 16:01

I don't think he 10pm in pubs is any good without a curfew of 11pm in general. And if you work etc you get a card from work to state why your out. I'm sure France did similar?