Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 20

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 20 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
Modelling real number of infections February to date
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

Request to posters giving a link:
Please do so in full, so people can see in advance what they are clicking
Also at least a brief title so we know what the link is about

I work in Knowsley. I don’t think that students would be having any impact on the numbers as it’s not a student area and too far out from universities for accommodation purposes. Knowsley is very family oriented community so more likely due to local pubs/social clubs and multiple households mixing.

Unfortunately Knowsley and Liverpool have a large proportion of Covid deniers so there’s not much compliance and not just in the younger generation.

I don’t understand why MH announcing further restrictions in the NE as cases per 100,000 are over 100, in Knowsley and Liverpool they are getting close to 300.

Local news reporting hospitals are reporting early stress.

@HeyMacarona watch this space... the NE restrictions were brought in before NW a couple weeks ago and news said that now the NE has been discussed and reviewed the NW is next.

@PrayingandHoping

I hope you’re right. It’s like March all over again screaming for them to do something

London's been made an area of concern now hasn't it? It was only a matter of time.

@HeyMacarona that’s exactly my point - student outbreaks can explain some of the Liverpool data but not the Knowsley rates. Deprivation and high rates of covid are a really toxic combination and a spiral that I can’t see us escaping out of easily

At least we’re making the news now, maybe that will prompts some help

@FatGirlShrinking I follow him too, he is doing a great job of presenting the data.

@GetAMoveOnTroodon

Yes the universities in Liverpool have certainly contributed to the numbers, 87 in Uni of Liverpool last week I think

I posted a few weeks ago about Merseyside (and the NE). For some reason media and government focus was largely confined to Greater Manchester and the Midlands. On a similar note, the rise in cases in London was downplayed.

When will people, particularly the government, learn that prevention is better than reaction. Early measures to nip it in the bud. That's what was needed.

On a similar note, the rise in cases in London was downplayed.

London has not hit any formal triggers to be made an area of concern. It was largely a political decision.

Sadiq Khan's hypothesis that London is a few days behind the North did not turn out true. The cases have been on the rise but so far they have been following a much flatter trajectory.

The hospital admissions also do not look too bad although I would not put too much reliance on the most recent drop.

@HeyMacarona

I work in Knowsley. I don’t think that students would be having any impact on the numbers as it’s not a student area and too far out from universities for accommodation purposes. Knowsley is very family oriented community so more likely due to local pubs/social clubs and multiple households mixing.

Unfortunately Knowsley and Liverpool have a large proportion of Covid deniers so there’s not much compliance and not just in the younger generation.

I don’t understand why MH announcing further restrictions in the NE as cases per 100,000 are over 100, in Knowsley and Liverpool they are getting close to 300.

Local news reporting hospitals are reporting early stress.

The restrictions in the NE were not as strict as most of the NW. The review now brings the NE into line with the NW.

@RedToothBrush

Reported earlier NE to ban household mixing? Never gone that far in Liverpool or the surrounding areas. FWIW I’m not sure how effective that would be anyway.

@wintertravel1980

On a similar note, the rise in cases in London was downplayed.

London has not hit any formal triggers to be made an area of concern. It was largely a political decision.

Sadiq Khan's hypothesis that London is a few days behind the North did not turn out true. The cases have been on the rise but so far they have been following a much flatter trajectory.

The hospital admissions also do not look too bad although I would not put too much reliance on the most recent drop.

Like the government cares what Sadiq Khan wants! They didn't even include in previous Cobra meetings - when the discussion involved London.

Several London hospitals have had to plan closures (again) of childrens departments (to divert elsewhere). In preparation for the expected surge in admissions.

Cases most definitely are rising there, including in hospitals.

Political decision? That would be NOT making London an area of concern. Rich people make money out of London (often at the expense of Londoners).

They won't have made London an area of concern until it was impossible to continue to deny the case increase there.

I made a prediction in February that London would be worse hit. I was right.

I made another prediction on here last week. London will be very badly hit again. Perhaps this time I'll be proved wrong. Time will tell.

www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/london-coronavirus-cases-rise-new-restrictions-a4557736.html?amp

[quote HeyMacarona]**@RedToothBrush

Reported earlier NE to ban household mixing? Never gone that far in Liverpool or the surrounding areas. FWIW I’m not sure how effective that would be anyway.[/quote]
It’s anecdotal so not really acceptable on these threads but we went to Knowsley Safari Park at the weekend and were really shocked at the big groups of people mixing - loads of multiple groups of friends and families so the rule of 6 hasn’t penetrated let alone anything else. We’d gone as our first trip out somewhere in ages for DD’s birthday treat, but even she said it was too busy and it wasn’t fair that we hadn’t been able to bring grandparents but loads of other people had

Yes, I have seen the Evening Standard article but it is always worth looking at the underlying source.

Positive case trends:

North West

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases?areaType=region&areaName=North%20West

North East

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases?areaType=region&areaName=North%20East

London

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases?areaType=region&areaName=London

London hospital admissions

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/healthcare?areaType=nhsregion&areaName=London

Based on the last week surveillance report, London has got 4-5% test positivity in the worst hit boroughs. This is again very different from the North (where the worst hit areas are 10%+).

As we discussed on the previous thread, I do not think London is fine (whole of UK is not) but any parallels between London and the North do not appear accurate (at least at the current point in time).

One correction to my previous post - Redbridge does seem to have 6% positivity so there is clearly something going on in the area. However so far it is an exception rather than the norm.

The London figures are a long way from the rates in the north, hospital admissions are not rising rapidly and because London was hit hard the first time rises there are likely to be slower. Now Bozo has reversed the daft advice to get back to the office the only reason for thinking things might take off there is students returning.

Depends how many tests are being taken. Less tests = less official cases. We know (it was widely reported) there was a huge issue particularly with home test availability. London has a higher percentage of non drivers than elsewhere.

Really the main thing is what you said. Political decisions. The government is desperate to avoid any restrictions anywhere, but particularly in London. There's no way they'd even list it as an Area of Concern unless there was no way of hiding the increase in cases.

We shall see. I stick to my prediction. London will again be very badly hit.

Really it's the cities and urban areas across the UK that will be harder hit. Density of population, closer together housing. Ideal conditions for a virus to spread.

We'll find out in a few months who's right.

I stick to my prediction that London will be hit worse than most other places (perhaps the worse hit of anywhere).

I was right in February about the first wave (and wasn't believed then either).

Time will tell whether or not I'm right again.

One of the best indicators to assess whether we are testing enough is to look at the test positivity.

The numbers for London (from 2% to 6% depending on the borough) for now do not look too bad. Ideally we would like to keep them under 3% but even Redbridge (with 6%) looks better than most of the other places on the watchlist.

@SheepandCow

I posted a few weeks ago about Merseyside (and the NE). For some reason media and government focus was largely confined to Greater Manchester and the Midlands. On a similar note, the rise in cases in London was downplayed.

When will people, particularly the government, learn that prevention is better than reaction. Early measures to nip it in the bud. That's what was needed.

I was banging on about the NE too. But we are used to being ignored.

It was the speed at which it was growing .

Reading in the DM that men with covid had lower testosterone after.
Interestingly though i just looked and low vitamin d leads to low testosterone

@alreadytaken

The London figures are a long way from the rates in the north, hospital admissions are not rising rapidly and because London was hit hard the first time rises there are likely to be slower. Now Bozo has reversed the daft advice to get back to the office the only reason for thinking things might take off there is students returning.

Figures depend on testing rates.

Redbridge can't be seen in isolation. Despite the strange practice of reporting London's cases split into individual boroughs, any restrictions are going to be London-wide. Because it's a very interlinked city. As said by the government. If individual boroughs were that separate, restriction would be confined to specific boroughs.

Yes half a million students arriving en mass probably won't help.

Then again I doubt the mass mask-less gathering protest at the weekend helped. Particularly considering most travelled there and back on crowded public transport.

A major reason why London was hit worse than anywhere else last time round was the denial and downplaying. For too long, there was an insistence by many that cases were lower there, that it wasn't at as high risk as anywhere else. Consequently containment measures weren't put in place until too late. The same is happening again.

Deja vu.

It's not just London being failed (as in insufficient containment measures being put in place). Prevention is better than reaction.

I've been posting for weeks about the NE.
That's being failed too.

Successful containment is about acting fast before things get out of hand.