Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 20

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 20 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
Modelling real number of infections February to date
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

Request to posters giving a link:
Please do so in full, so people can see in advance what they are clicking
Also at least a brief title so we know what the link is about

The Zoë app doesn't invite you for a test if you are in Scotland.
Slightly odd figures for Scotland today. Under 4000 tests on new people, has been over 6000, so the 344 positive tests is quite a drop from yesterday, but probably due to reduced testing. 9.1% positive of newly tested.
43% of positive tests on Thursday were in the age group 15-19.
It's also getting colder, down to -2C last night.

Do Uk recorded cases tend to be lower on Sundays ?

Previous Sunday had 3,899 cases vs 5,693 today

We probably need to wait a week before seeing the effect of Rule of 6 and the trend after that

Cases rising in Stockholm region, almost a weekly doubling in numbers for the past 2 weeks. 248 > 445 > 855
www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/qAnam0/smittan-fordubblas-i-stockholm

Don’t know if relevant but my area of Lancashire is top ten since July. Rates are still going through the roof despite strict rules since July . The council two weeks ago announced the testing capacity cannot cope with demand so they reduced opening hours of the popular walk in testing stations from 7 day a week to 5 day a week . The stations are now shut thur and Friday in the entire area. Except for a pre book drive in .I wonder if this affects Sunday results.

People are not complying with the rules now as they have been going on so long and even a testing station was set on fire one night.

I assume Swedish uni students and older school students have returned?

Peston on Twitter

A public health official alerted me that some students testing positive for #COVID19 have their result attributed on government’s data dashboard to their home local authority not the uni one. I asked @DHSCgovuk* and attached is the response. Not a denial, more a “we have a plan” t.co/jdboq6Zue1*

Not terribly surprised considering how everything else is managed but means we have absolutely no idea who's got the infection and where.

It was understandably one of Sturgeons worries when peoplenwere using an Aberdeen postcode to get a test and then taking it to their local test centre in South of England.

@Timeforanotherusername yes that could auto happen wouldn't it if the students entered their home postcode not the uni...

A systematic review and meta-analysis of published research data on COVID-19 infection-fatality rates

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.03.20089854v4

"Based on a systematic review and meta-analysis of published evidence on COVID-19 until May, 2020,
the IFR of the disease across populations is 0.68% (0.53-0.82%).
< medical advances since May have likely lowered this somewhat >

However, due to very high heterogeneity in the meta-analysis, it is difficult to know if this represents the true point estimate.

It is likely that, due to age and perhaps underlying comorbidities in the population, different places will experience different IFRs due to the disease

< Looking at the evidence has indicated this for some time, as has population density, health services, deprivation etc
The Uni Bonn Gangelt study suggested as low as 0.36% for Germany >

Given issues with mortality recording,
it is also likely that this represents an underestimate of the true IFR figure.

More research looking at age-stratified IFR is urgently needed to inform policy-making on this front."
< Age is absolutely dominant, hence we need to consider IFR in the 65+ cohort, among whom the vast majority of feaths occur, alongside the general population IFR for a country or group of similar countries >

Useful to consider alongside 1-year mortality risk for various conditions (NHS GP data)
under scenarios for different strategies:

full suppression / partial suppression / mitigation / do nothing

Estimating excess 1-year mortality associated with the COVID-19 pandemic according to underlying conditions and age: a population-based cohort study

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30854-0/fulltext

Given that the students in most cases brought the virus from home, it makes current cases more accurate for identifying risk areas - but understandably creates an issue with explaining locked-down halls of residence.

I wish I could see the covid support groups being advertised more, I worry that people have forgotten about them and it would be a useful counterpoint to the fines.

Mortality data is interesting. However since March so many vulnerable people have been shielding, taking themselves off the figures, I wonder if we will get a true picture?

And on another note, I am increasingly concerned about schools. As figures rise, and in some places are not going down, it feels like the community transmission rate is very high yet hardly any schools seem to be putting in extra precautions, or plan Bs.

Even plan A, the current guidelines, seem to be very laxly applied with bubbles of whole year groups. In Ireland all secondary pupils and teachers wear masks all the time now, and pupils are still getting Covid and there are some school clusters. This is a very precarious time. Schools open with little or no effective aerosol barriers seems madness.

Our school plan was the put a fun autumn display on the way in so everyone slows down to look on the two-way system impossible to socially distance anyway but this made it worse. No masks on anyone, teachers up close to children. The risk is too much for me and we've already had 3 weeks off ill. Better for them to have a less than ideal education temporarily than a dead mum.

I am absolutely torn personally. DS is primary but in special school, which I may lose if I just take him out.

Ireland has a breakdown of age, which does show it is the 16-25years that has the most cases. Attached here. However under 16s are climbing and other studies have estimated 50% are asymptomatic. I can’t see the up to date age breakdown for the UK. Would be useful, especially if broken down by area.

Susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2 Infection Among Children and Adolescents Compared With Adults

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamapediatrics/fullarticle/2771181

"there is preliminary evidence that children and adolescents have lower susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2, with an odds ratio of 0.56 for being an infected contact compared with adults.

There is weak evidence that children and adolescents play a lesser role than adults in transmission of SARS-CoV-2 at a population level.

This study provides no information on the infectivity of children."

It really is a case of different rules in different places, our primary schools all demand masks in the queue outside.

@IceCreamSummer20 - see the Figure 14 in the data file of the surveillance report, here is this week's: assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/921562/Weekly_COVID19_report_data_w39.xlsx.
Children continue to have lower incidence of infection, particularly the under 10s. It's been widely reported that they had a huge proportion of tests in the initial weeks, largely due to rhinoviruses, but have much lower positivity rates than the adults.
Based on the previous Chris Whitty graphs, I think if under 15s were separated we'd again see a difference in the rates for young teens compared with the older teens who are closer to the higher infection rates of early 20s.

This is Newcastle at the mo.

The dark blue areas north of the Tyne are primarily student accommodation areas.

It was rising at the start of sept but has now gone bonkers.

Newcastle schools have done a full 3 weeks now.

It must be schools and students helping to drive this. Bare in mind a week or two ago positivity rates were 11% iirc? Due to difficulties getting tests.

Re masks - schools are asking parents ta to wear them on the school run.

I note a lot of compliance round me where there's a lot of hcps.

A friend has said there's much less compliance in an area further north with slightly lower socioeconomic demographic. They've been told to do so but many parents are refusing.

Slightly off topic whilst still on topic of political pressures and potential vaccine shortages, this is a really very good article into the history of the polio immunisation programme of the 1950s.

I think we could see many similar problems arise - and we should be increasing awareness of what this are by using this historical example.

Its great because it looks at the whole science and evidence v politics debate but from the distance of history without getting sucked into the current emotive debates that we are living through.

www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13619462.2016.1247701
'A matter of commonsense’: the Coventry poliomyelitis epidemic 1957 and the British public

Its really good food for thought about what might happen... And helps to identify the difference between rhetoric rather than evidence based decision making in the national interest that we might be seeing now and in the immediate future. It should help to enable people to question what they are hearing / seeing more objectively.

I don't want to derail from the data stuff on this thread, but i think this is a really useful tool which will be appreciated by quite a few people here.

This is Newcastle at the mo.

The dark blue areas north of the Tyne are primarily student accommodation areas.

It was rising at the start of sept but has now gone bonkers.

Also see Manchester, Salford, Liverpool and Exeter amongst others.

Yes.

And actually, closing pubs and bars etc would help as unfortunately Newcastle is definitely a party city. Which I've just heard they may do soon.

I accepted my EE offer based on a fab night out at planet earth

We also have a lot of teaching hospitals and teacher training here.

This isn't the student's fault, I really feel for them.

Students'

@NeurotrashWarrior

Yes.

And actually, closing pubs and bars etc would help as unfortunately Newcastle is definitely a party city. Which I've just heard they may do soon.

I accepted my EE offer based on a fab night out at planet earth

You just get student parties onsite though... You cant stop it happening completely. All you do is move the problem underground. Remember at the end of the original hard lockdown we started to see a big rise in the number of big illegal raves occurring.

At present we dont have evidence that the curfew will reduce the number of infections in the population who like to party, and i think that its important to be mindful of that.

Andy Burnham was very sensible to hear on R4 Today this morning. 10pm curfew probably needs to be changed, just resulting in drinking in the streets and house, at least in Manchester. Said Antwerp had a curfew but put 9pm limit on supermarket sales of alcohol and policing on the streets.