Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 20

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 20 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
Modelling real number of infections February to date
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

Request to posters giving a link:
Please do so in full, so people can see in advance what they are clicking
Also at least a brief title so we know what the link is about

It’s a meta analysis that seems to indicate lower susceptibility to coronavirus

If Professor Viner thinks it so important that schools stay open, he should perhaps be advising the government to make them -safer-, especially in secondary.

Schools won't stay open effectively if their teachers keep getting infected or isolating (or have enduring symptoms, or even die). We know that primary age children are said to be less susceptible, but that doesn't apply to older secondary age children. Far from it.

I find the testing side of things interesting.
I’m in Leeds. 2 weeks ago I could not get a test. Tried for hours over a week and there was nothing. I looked just for interest over the last few days and there has been something available within 10 miles most times I’ve checked. So I do think the situation is better - at least here.

But - looking at my local Facebook site This morning, lots of children have coughs. But everyone is saying, there’s no point getting tested because my friend X had to travel 10 hours last week for one. And it will just be a cold. Along with the usual you only have to take a test if you have all 3 symptoms.

So unfortunately the Real issues with testing now means that even more people aren’t bothering to get tested

The study also concludes that there is insufficient evidence on transmission by children.

I think you're probably right re testing @TheSunIsStillShining. Confidence in the system has been lost.

Sorry I meant @NaturalLight

The Black Death probably killed half the population of England the first time around and 20% the second time round. After that there was some natural social distancing because the population was spread rather more thinly (and was a lot thinner than now to start with).

Covid is not that fatal but the big unknown is whether people who survive will have permanently reduced capacity or not. The lung damage looks to be improving but it can affect many organs and it was killing off health care staff because they didnt have enough PPE. So - when you dont know what you are facing but you do know it's going to be tough lockdown gives you time to prepare, find out more and try and protect your health care service.

People are being encouraged not to test children and the penalty for not self isolating is probably deterring people from testing. Whether that pushs numbers up again remains to be seen. Students returning to university would also be expected to push up infection, they are partying in the streets in some places.

I dont trust case figures, watch the admissions.

I will never get the ostrich effect.
We NEED to know on a per kid level who has Covid now, so we can monitor 1-5-10-20-... years later (if needed) these patients.
As a human race we now have enough knowledge to know how vital gathering data can be later on, and yet still won't do it.

There's a more immediate reason though, surely - if we don't know who's positive we can't tell them to isolate and stop spread to the vulnerable...

@Augustbreeze - yes that’s why I specified suseptibility. I think it says they are intending to carry out a meta analysis on transmission of children.

I haven’t read the study but if accurate then it could help feed into thinking about what measure should be prioritised in schools.

I ahve actually read this already. It's not brand new. This bit stands out :

Most of the CTSs were undertaken when strict social distancing measures had been introduced, eg, closures of schools and workplaces and restriction of travel. This would have reduced contacts outside the home, especially contacts between children, but it may have increased contacts between children and adults by increasing the household contact rate. The number of contacts nominated and traced for those younger than 20 years was low compared with adults in some studies,12,23 which may have introduced bias.

Only two of their studies are high quality and the tone is very tentative and yet Viner, and The Guardian, make very definite pronouncements. More caution might help.

I was reading immune compromised people may take longer to clear the virus than the 10 days. So if say that happened with a teacher or child then they would infect (if it is still active virus) the people in their bubble that were susceptible but either they would eventually clear the virus so maybe the effect of that would be large at the start then reduce as the whole bubble off and once the parents have had it. In the same way as anyone not isolating from holiday going into class or with incubations over the 14d.
Secondary may be worse as always sat with different people and anyone remaining infectious could maybe keep setting off more infections.

Ideally you want to take actions when an area is growing not only when they have become a hotspot

.

I think testing availability has improved, at least for priority groups. I logged a sore throat on the Zoe Covid app yesterday. I got an invitation to test from them today and was able to get a home test using their instructions on how to fill in the form. DH was invited by them to test 1.5 weeks ago for a cold and tried 2 or 3 times but was unable to get any home tests.

@Piggywaspushed

I ahve actually read this already. It's not brand new. This bit stands out :

Most of the CTSs were undertaken when strict social distancing measures had been introduced, eg, closures of schools and workplaces and restriction of travel. This would have reduced contacts outside the home, especially contacts between children, but it may have increased contacts between children and adults by increasing the household contact rate. The number of contacts nominated and traced for those younger than 20 years was low compared with adults in some studies,12,23 which may have introduced bias.

Only two of their studies are high quality and the tone is very tentative and yet Viner, and The Guardian, make very definite pronouncements. More caution might help.

I was going to comment on this earlier and had the exact same passage copied. I think it's actually quite scandalous that people in such prominent positions abuse their authority to make sweeping statements on the basis of such weak evidence. I deleted my post because it was even more of a rant than this one.

I think in general scant information has lent itself to sweeping statements.

It’s a good thing we are all on these excellent threads by BCF. It’s right to look deeper into any pronouncements.

Misreporting of science is unfortunately very common even before coronavirus.

Tbf I think the guardian has exaggerated in its heading. On testing at least what Viner seemed to be saying was just the same as the government’s position now - only test children for the three main symptoms.

Hopefully more studies will come out that capture the back to full time school experience.

The media are working in a vacuum somewhat and every serious paper has spun a line to fill it in. Others do it all the time anyway.

But it’s better to go to the source for sure.

Anyone can tell it's bonkers to make statements about children when few children were in school when analysis was done.

And it's a good point about knowing who has had it longer term imo.

I've not understood something that happened at my friend's school recently. A bubble at school closed as family members of a child were positive. Child was then negative so they all came back.

1. That's a new one on me; I've not heard of that before?

1. How did they know when the right time to test the child was? I'm assuming there were no symptoms.

Unless they did have symptoms and due to the positive family test they were extra cautious?

Though that makes me worried for false negatives!

@NeurotrashWarrior
These are good questions...

I get it if someone says they don't care and school life is more important than their lives. It's their choice. But luring (or forcing) back kids with the song of Sybil and parent's buying into that crap is astonishing.

sorry, not song of Sybil (although apocalyptic is fitting as well :)), but song of the sirens.
This is what you get when listening to dead can dance and writing a post in parallel.

RE that guardian article - what is worrying is the numbers of positive tests that are currently coming out in schools - more outbreaks in primary than secondary, too. The message there seems to be "dont bother testing your child" yet it hardly makes sense to restrict the number of tests available given the numbers they are throwing up?

Can I please ask a question?

Looking at the cases for my LA it shows 4 cases for today. However when I click the data tab it shows 0 cases for today and yesterday. Does this mean the new cases recorded today were backdated for some reason?

I put sore throat in Zoe App and didn't get invited to test!

Piggy sometimes the invitation doesn't come til the next day

Oh... well, it was DS and he has a load of your classic cold symptoms, so...