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Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 20

970 replies

BigChocFrenzy · 22/09/2020 22:46

Welcome to thread 20 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
Modelling real number of infections February to date
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

Our STUDIES Corner

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

Request to posters giving a link:
Please do so in full, so people can see in advance what they are clicking
Also at least a brief title so we know what the link is about

OP posts:
Thread gallery
82
deflationexasperation · 27/09/2020 16:28

We know there is a seasonal aspect because of the cold meat factories.

OhTheRoses · 27/09/2020 16:33

Thank you very much here comes the sun

AlecTrevelyan006 · 27/09/2020 16:37

twitter.com/RP131/status/1310234864294277122

chart from 21-Sep briefing where they showed an "example scenario" of positives doubling every 7 days. Actuals overlaid in blue.

Jenasaurus · 27/09/2020 16:50

Another day with the number of cases dropping, something positive?

TheSunIsStillShining · 27/09/2020 16:57

I'd love to take it as a positive, but it's more likely the usual weekend fall.

BigChocFrenzy · 27/09/2020 17:00

@FingonTheValiant

BigChoc I think that New York might be and interesting case study for antibodies and retransmissions/ duration of immunity etc. Fingers crossed it is only a tiny ripple there and we can all have something positive to look forward to!
.... Yes I'm expecting NYC would only have a very small 2nd wave / ripple with few if any deaths

If not, this pandemic is much more serious than current mainstream calculations:

They are a major city in one of the most advanced countries in the world and with one of the highest veriified concentrations of antibodies

OP posts:
FatGirlShrinking · 27/09/2020 17:05

I live in Leicester and used to work in a large call centre in North Evington which is one of the big CV areas. Probably 70% of the people working in that call centre lived within 1 mile whole generations of families living and working together. At lunchtime mums and wives would gather outside with hot meals for their husbands, sons, nephews, grandsons. Families have several houses on the same street and open door policies where people are in and out sharing meals, sharing childcare. It's like an old fashioned community that you see on call the midwife.

Yes there are factories where people are not given correct working conditions, but I think it's the inter-generational housing and family life that is really causing the spread in these areas.

Sunshinegirl82 · 27/09/2020 17:12

We seem to be hearing less about people being unable to access tests now, I know test numbers have generally been up. Has access improved?

BigChocFrenzy · 27/09/2020 17:19

[quote Mentounasc]@BigChocFrenzy You're in Germany and following the rki.de figures, right? Do you have any idea how come no district in mainland UK has yet been designated a high-risk area, even though some towns have shockingly high 7day per 100000 figures? The danger level is supposedly 50. So Utrecht has (rightly imo) been designated high risk at approx 90, while places like Bolton, Caerphilly, Leeds are way above that but stay off the list. Is it because the rki is impressed by the British testing levels and lockdown measures, or some other weird reason? Any ideas?

Image (should be attached) is from the English-language rki.de list of current Risikogebiete.
[/quote]
...
It's certainly not respect for the Uk t&t systems:

Even neighbours & people at the gym have been asking me with horror what "Boris" (they all call him that) is doing to allow so many deaths and to appoint cronies to public health jobs.
It is regarded as extraordinary, because for many years GB has been praised as the European country who functions best in a crisis, once brits realises there is a crisis.

The last few years, especially the last 6 months, have shattered a lot of previous illusions here about British competence and common sense

Possibly political omission of Uk regions: while post-Brexit negotiations are ongoing, not wanting the UK media or politicians to be able to claim germany is "punishing" them for Brexit

Also, England in particular is so densely populated that from a public health pov it would mean putting at least all of England on the list, so very sensitive political issue there.

EEA countries / regions are only being put on the list if very high cases indeed, compared to other areas of the world
and until 1 January, the UK retains EEA & EU privileges

OP posts:
herecomesthsun · 27/09/2020 17:20

Indie SAGE thought there might be some stabilising (slower growth) on Friday.

ZOE goes by symptoms but if lots of people have non covid coughs, could that confound things?

AnythingLegalConsidered · 27/09/2020 17:21

Having attempted to book a test recently I think the reason why you’re not hearing about it any more is that it’s no longer news because everyone knows that tests are like hens’ teeth.

BigChocFrenzy · 27/09/2020 17:23

Estimates for daily cases in March-April range from 100k -200k,
depending on modelling methodology
and how many cases the model includes that wouldn't be detected at the moment either

There were 22 consecutive days of > 1,000 deaths, with a 1,445 peak on 8 April
(that's including care home and other deaths outside hospital, which have now ben added in the official figures)

So a massive difference to where we are now and even to the 200 daily deaths predicted in 4 weeks

OP posts:
BigChocFrenzy · 27/09/2020 17:26

R at peak was ~ 2.5+, compared to R = 1.2 - 1.6 atm
So current doubling time of the number of infections is probably 9-10 days instead of 3 days then

OP posts:
Regulus · 27/09/2020 17:30

@Sunshinegirl82

We seem to be hearing less about people being unable to access tests now, I know test numbers have generally been up. Has access improved?
Anecdotal but in my area lots of people seem to think they can't get a test so much more happy to self diagnose. Had several people tell me at an athletics meet that their child had a cough or temp in the week but it was just the cold thats going around. Also a fear of being seen as wasting a test.
Chaotic45 · 27/09/2020 17:31

@MRex that's a good question and I don't know the answer. I'd hope that the leaders are now spreading the message and being listened to.

We have a strong representation from Muslim, Sikh and Hindus religion.

My dad who lives in Leicester said some of his Asian friends have a strong belief that their fate is already written and that seems to be skewing their thoughts towards the steps they personally take to avoid the virus. That's anecdotal via Dad though.

sirfredfredgeorge · 27/09/2020 17:37

ZOE goes by symptoms but if lots of people have non covid coughs, could that confound things?

I don't even begin to figure out how you'd control for the varying amounts of non covid respiratory infections, most of the UK is in absolutely peak time for rhinovirus, how you separate out these symptoms to decide must be very difficult, do Zoe report the number of symptomful people in its entirety and how it adjusts for covid?

Augustbreeze · 27/09/2020 17:53

I suspect ppl are just not bothering to test (and probably not to isolate for 10 days either). There are MNers who report results coming back much quicker, others that report an instruction on the website to just isolate for 10 days as they cannot chase delayed results.

wintertravel1980 · 27/09/2020 17:58

Zoe is supposed to adjust for COVID. However:

  • Its estimates so far have been based on spring-summer trends. The split between COVID and flu/colds in September might have changed significantly and Zoe's algorithm may need to be reviewed.
  • Zoe has also started deviating from NHS/111/999 triage figures which in theory should move in the same direction. This might raise a question of how representative Zoe's sample is. Also, if I had been Tim Spector, I would have checked and double checked my submitters for potential bots and dodgy IPs. I am usually not a conspiracy theorist but there might be a few interested parties keen on messing up with the UK/European/Western COVID response. Zoe's research project would be an obvious target.
TheSunIsStillShining · 27/09/2020 18:01

@wintertravel1980
and IP with location filtering is easy enough to implement post report as a cleanup of the db.
I thought they were cleaning the db for things like number of responses per IP, non-uk IP,...

TheSunIsStillShining · 27/09/2020 18:03

This is the 5th day in a row:

We’re sorry. There are currently no tests available in your area.

Son's friend would need a test, he's been off school since Monday, but still no test.

wintertravel1980 · 27/09/2020 18:06

I am sure they are doing the basic clean up but some overseas hackers can be quite sophisticated especially if the attack comes from a nation state.

Unfortunately, I do see this regularly in my line of work (which has got nothing to do with healthcare or COVID). Hacking attacks from nation state actors are very real and very regular.

Sunshinegirl82 · 27/09/2020 18:09

That's a shame. I was hoping demand might be starting to stabilise and/or testing might be starting to close the gap a bit. Perhaps not.

Let's hope things improve when the new lab opens (this is due to happen any time now I seem to remember).-

InMySpareTime · 27/09/2020 18:11

Does anyone know WTF has happened in Trafford? Cases for the last week have been in the 30s per day, but today added 58, making 62 cases for 24/9 which is twice the previous daily peak (even in the "first wave").

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 20
AnyFucker · 27/09/2020 18:12

.

littlestpogo · 27/09/2020 18:31

Article on a study on children in the guardian ( it links to the study but I haven’t read it yet myself)

www.theguardian.com/society/2020/sep/27/too-many-children-tested-for-covid-leading-study-schools