Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 20

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 20 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
Modelling real number of infections February to date
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

Request to posters giving a link:
Please do so in full, so people can see in advance what they are clicking
Also at least a brief title so we know what the link is about

I didn't calculate the case numbers @Piggywaspushed, so apologies if there is a higher than expected discrepancy, but to me they look very similar proportionally. Higher cases are the issue that needs to be resolved.

That training sounds such a bad idea, fingon. Some really scary projections there as well.

Looked up suicide and wartime. There is evidence that suicide rates fall during times of crisis and war. However there are also reported long term effects of trauma (PTSD) on solider, those who have been brutally treated.

oxfordmedicine.com/view/10.1093/med/9780198570059.001.0001/med-9780198570059-chapter-31
Research indicates that suicide rates decline during wartime. The most likely explanation for this decline is the greater social cohesion of societies during wartime, but changes in the economy, such as reduced rates of unemployment, may also play a role. The impact of civil wars on suicide rates is unclear since the data in the different reports are inconsistent. Prisoners of war who are treated harshly have higher suicide rates after release.

Wikipaedia The Blitz
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Blitz#"Blitz_Spirit" citing Ingersol, 1940, pp. 114,117–118; Field 2002, pp. 15–20; Titmuss 1950, pp. 340, 349; Mackay 2002, pp. 80–81.
According to Anna Freud and Edward Glover, London civilians surprisingly did not suffer from widespread shell shock, unlike the soldiers in the Dunkirk evacuation.[69] The psychoanalysts were correct, and the special network of psychiatric clinics opened to receive mental casualties of the attacks closed due to lack of need. Although the stress of the war resulted in many anxiety attacks, eating disorders, fatigue, weeping, miscarriages, and other physical and mental ailments, society did not collapse. The number of suicides and drunkenness declined

@Perihelion

Wheresmymojo which is why I assume, we're not allowed in each others houses at the moment, or meet up with more than 1 other household, in Scotland. The way the rule of 6 has been promoted in England, as far as I can see, doesn't seem to stress that distancing is still important.

Yes, exactly.

The comms around the fact that longer gatherings indoors are the highest risk has not landed at all.

The Govt have done a shit job at explaining why certain regulations are in place or how the virus works.

I was personally happy about the rule of 6 staying (from a very selfish point of view as it's okay in South East for now) but I actually think it's not a good rule. Two households was better IMO.

Anyway...even in the South East we have areas now creeping up to where some of the North/Midlands were a few weeks ago so it's probably just a matter of time here. I haven't done the data analysis but gut feel is we're 4-6 weeks behind the North.

The Zoe app estimates nearly 20000 cases per day compared to the official figures of between 6000 and 7000 is there a reason for this.

I remain befuddled because in absolute terms the risks are infinitesimal yet the caution and lockdown seem disproportionate to me at least. I cannot reconcile the damage of shutting schools and universities with the potential risk but am perhaps missing something.

@Piggywaspushed

It's the just that is concerning, though. 30% is way in excess of representation of the Asian community in the general population.

Not in the areas hardest hit...

Leicester & Oldham = closer to 40% Asian
Bradford = 30%

As examples...

For me this brings up issues of who we assume is affected during Covid19. I saw many, many posts, media reports about the danger of increased suicide rates and increased mental health problems particularly in the young. These were all assumptions.

However I do know at least one consultant who worked in ICU in London the whole way through who is now pretty traumatised. I know of older people who are distressed but also older people who are having a pretty OK time, they are stoic, even my family members who are still shielding.

Domestic violence rates have gone up, and I can believe child line too with children stuck in families that they can no longer escape from. Families with SN children (my DS one of them) I know of who’s supports completely fell away, but also SN children (my DS included) who had some respite from outside demands too.

Suicide rates are often linked to access to means, and within men 20 to 50 years, particular vulnerable groups are prisoners and those cut off or financial problems. However in this pandemic many had financial difficulties and so whilst hard this did not come with ‘shame or blame’ to oneself. Teenagers are not the most at risk group for suicide, comparatively. However suicide ideation is a known trigger esp among younger people so lack of access to this, perhaps the huge distraction of Covid19, may have helped.

The comms around the fact that longer gatherings indoors are the highest risk has not landed at all. Absolutely. I really don’t think the
Length of time + indoors = increased Covid-19 risk
Is being communicated well at all.

There are a number of separate issues - do asian people take up tests as often (no idea if they are disproportionately affected by lack of test availability). Are asian people more likely to be infected (yes, because they are disproportionately concentrated in areas with high infection rates). Are asian people more likely to be admitted to hospital when infected (dont know the answer to that, I suspect yes, because they are more likely to be seriously ill). Are asian people more likely to be on ventilation in hospital (yes, because they seem to be more affected).

MH - DV increased during lockdown probably mainly as a correlation with increased alcohol and drug abuse. As lockdown eased other issues such as feelings of abandonment and rage will have been triggered especially in those with borderline personality traits.

In addition, as any agoraphobic will tell you, retreat into a safe bubble is easy, it is the stepping out into the world again that triggers feelings of panic and helplessness.

@BigChocFrenzy

Interesting: Two Nobel Prize-winning economists have urged France to consider an Advent lockdown

That would certainly return Advent to its original religious purpose of being a time of fasting and reflection, rather than office parties and excess!

@whatsnext2 I am really interested in solid evidence emerging. However I do think that it will show a mixed response. Some people’s mental health will have improved, other’s will have not. Even with DV, it may well have been the critical moment for some that made them think ‘no more’ and leave a relationship as soon as they could. For example a University college opened it’s student rooms (which had emptied) to those fleeing DV on lockdown and there were increased numbers in the area fleeing their homes.

As another example I answered a lot of questionnaires about families with severe SN children, which focused on difficulties and would now report ‘difficulties’ such as lack of support. However on the whole I would say some SN families (not all) had a very positive experience like myself, but because it was assumed we were all having a terrible time those questions weren’t even asked.

Sorry this probably belongs in another thread to itself!

Yes indeed wheres but why are those areas hardest hit?

We know in Leicester that they found at least one factory with slave labour wages and poor conditions. I suspect there is something lurking in the North West that is helping with spread. Several superspread events have been identified, but there's clearly something else going on.

I have the app.

I've turned off contact tracing as I spend my time at school and ds swim club where they have systems in place.

Went to McDonald's yesterday and did the QR code.

Will turn it on for things like supermarket and if I go out somewhere I can't check in with QR code.

I'm just not sure how much I trust it's accuracy to have to on all the time.

Although with 2-4 cases a day in my town of population 120k it would be highly unlucky to catch it from someone in public'!

Figures seem to indicate it's still very much household and very close contact transmission.

Little owl love the new info on COVID messenger. Thanks for being so on top of this. The data is so easy to read and gain an instant picture.

@Piggywaspushed

Yes indeed wheres but why are those areas hardest hit?

I wonder if the vitamin D thing has any correlation?

The SE is lowest and SW second lowest and they are predominantly much sunnier and much more "outdoor" during the summer months.

@BigChocFrenzy You're in Germany and following the rki.de figures, right? Do you have any idea how come no district in mainland UK has yet been designated a high-risk area, even though some towns have shockingly high 7day per 100000 figures? The danger level is supposedly 50. So Utrecht has (rightly imo) been designated high risk at approx 90, while places like Bolton, Caerphilly, Leeds are way above that but stay off the list. Is it because the rki is impressed by the British testing levels and lockdown measures, or some other weird reason? Any ideas?

Image (should be attached) is from the English-language rki.de list of current Risikogebiete.

In my nearest city of Leicester a large proportion of Asian people live with extended family- so grandparents, aunts, cousins etc all in one home. This is the case for both affluent and less affluent families.

Families tend to be very close and occasions are huge family affairs.

Religion is an enormous part of their lives. Many many would usually worship before and after work each day, and their faith is a huge part of their lives and their community.

There is a real distrust of police and politicians. They trust their religious leaders. Many don't believe what they are told about Covid.

It's a wonderful community of great people, but for so many reasons it's a covid nightmare.

Yes, very close communities. Often several houses on the same street will have various units of the same extended family in them. They visit each other all the time so very easy to spread across several multi-generational households and then further via places of worship.

In fact it's very much like the working class communities in the North back in the late 1800s to 1940s where you would have the exact same set up (multigenerational households, large families, extended families in different houses on the same street).

There are a couple of good radio docs on BBC Sounds by Dr Fozia Hayat, a frontline NHS doctor - I caught the tail-end of one of them at the beginning of this month. She's at Bradford Royal Infirmary. The cultural pressures, eg to hold huge wedding gatherings, is so very strong that even families who've already lost members to Covid don't feel they can go against them.

The producer, Sue Mitchell, has worked with Dr Hayat on another documentary exploring Covid-deniers, vaccine-sceptics and peddlers of fake news. Both well worth a listen, I reckon.

I saw something on TV about India, don't know how things are at the moment but at the time they seemed to be doing OK. One of the reasons they gave was multi generational living as they thought things were bad here as old people get put in homes and the homes were hard hit. I thought it was interesting as here multi generation families are usually seen as a risk.

@Chaotic45 - Why aren't the imams and other religious or community leaders spreading the message? They don't want their friends and adherents to be unwell, so I don't understand why they wouldn't be promoting safe practices? Or are they, but people don't believe them either? I remember some ridiculous conspiracy theory early on that doctors were harming Asians if they went to hospital, but I thought that nonsense had gone away.
In NE London by comparison, the Indian community was hit hard early on, but various community and religious leaders seem to have been very active in spreading information and quickly getting people informed when cases started to go up again.

5693 and 17 deaths today. Testing numbers still not updated since Friday.

Patients in hospital in England

27-09-2020: 1,721
26-09-2020: 1,622
25-09-2020: 1,615
24-09-2020 1,481
23-09-2020 1,381
22-09-2020 1,335
21-09-2020 1,261

@OhTheRoses

The Zoe app estimates nearly 20000 cases per day compared to the official figures of between 6000 and 7000 is there a reason for this.

I remain befuddled because in absolute terms the risks are infinitesimal yet the caution and lockdown seem disproportionate to me at least. I cannot reconcile the damage of shutting schools and universities with the potential risk but am perhaps missing something.

Okay so the best guess is that the rate per day in March was 100,000 new infections, and this was doubling every few days. So if we hadn't locked down it would effectively have gone through the majority of the country in the days and weeks following.

At peak around 1-3 million people were thought to be infected at one time. This was where the 1000 deaths a day came from.

The NHS however, was not completely overwhelmed at that point. In countries where healthcare was overwhelmed the death rate then rose to 3-4%.

So there could have been deaths well into 6 or 7 figures, without a lockdown.

We know only a limited amount about this pathogen, but it appears that having had the infection may not confer long term immunity and indeed, there are suggestions that t can be more dangerous when you get re-infected.

The clever thing in a pandemic historically has been to get people to avoid crowded placed- and shut down places like schools and universities where people gather. In the Middle Ages even, plagues led to interruption of studies. You don't want all your students to get infected.

Even without a vaccine, or antibiotics, a modern understanding of disease, plagues tend to die out after a couple of years. You want to lie low, avoid getting infected and survive to get on with your life.

re the figures, there's a problem with availability of testing, the Zoe figures reflect the numbers of people with relevant symptoms in the community. ONS will have more prevalence figures out on Monday which give a good estimate of current numbers, you could have a look at that maybe?