Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 20

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 20 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
Modelling real number of infections February to date
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

Request to posters giving a link:
Please do so in full, so people can see in advance what they are clicking
Also at least a brief title so we know what the link is about

I hope everyone going for a test turns off the app, or that'll be a certain way to get isolated.

That's a very good point!

BigChoc I think that New York might be and interesting case study for antibodies and retransmissions/ duration of immunity etc. Fingers crossed it is only a tiny ripple there and we can all have something positive to look forward to!

plantlife I'm so sorry .And your post is a valuable contribution and you definitely shouldn't be apologising for it .

This virus has such wide reaching effects ,it's good to be aware of the less obvious and possibly overlooked ones .

@plantlife - I'm sorry you've had such a hard time. You've done really well to get away. Please remember that although the virus affects some people, others are fine. Don't step backwards into a known bad situation based on the risk of being unwell, your risk being with your ex is genuinely much higher. Take good care and I hope you get rehomed soon.

@littleowl1 thanks as ever for your fab emails. Can I ask if you’d consider doing a second table of “worst 10 by cases per 100k”? I work in Knowsley, which thanks to your emails I know is doing horrendously at 225 per 100k. I regularly do posts to our company with screenshots from your emails with the latest comparisons, but because Knowsley is a relatively small council, we don’t appear in the total case worst ten chart.

Don’t worry if it’s too much work!

NY is an interesting case. You cannot allocate the blame for increasing cases to indoor dining, people not wearing masks or schools. However it looks like the trend out there is consistent with what we are seeing in Europe (although the rise is much more modest).

My hypothesis is that the seasonal aspect of the virus is, unfortunately, stronger than initially thought.

@GetAMoveOnTroodon

Yes I have been deliberating adding that. Leave it with me.

[quote Augustbreeze]Just thinking, the new NHS app monitors the length of time you are

My hypothesis is that the seasonal aspect of the virus is, unfortunately, stronger than initially thought.

I agree with this. Not because of the virus itself per se but because of the fact that people will be meeting indoors at home, which will usually mean small rooms and unventilated spaces.

A third of all clusters in France are now in Educational settings, making it the largest contributor to outbreaks. They do give some conditions on this, but I don't completely understand the translation.

"With 285 clusters, for the first time, the educational world is ahead of that of the company, which has 195. Next come health establishments (97) and “public or private events: temporary gatherings of people” (77 ), writes SPF. In its previous bulletin, dated September 17, schools and universities counted 160 clusters under investigation (22% of the total), and only 26 as of September 10."

www.lemonde.fr/education/article/2020/09/26/covid-19-un-tiers-des-clusters-concerne-l-ecole-et-l-universite_6053758_1473685.html

Report of patients in critical care since 1 September and in total from Covid. Breaks it down by age, bmi, deprivation, ethnicity, etc

www.icnarc.org/DataServices/Attachments/Download/baa7de02-3f00-eb11-912b-00505601089b

Thanks @littleowl1 - much appreciated!!

@wheresmymojo but aren't we being encouraged not to do this? I'm not in a local Lockdown area but am not meeting people indoors as my DC are part of a humungous school year bubble.

[quote Chaotic45]@wheresmymojo but aren't we being encouraged not to do this? I'm not in a local Lockdown area but am not meeting people indoors as my DC are part of a humungous school year bubble. [/quote]

Well yes except we can still meet in groups of 6 indoors within the guidance and I'd be interested to know self-reported levels of adherence.

It seems to me that the levels of non-compliance are rising all the time.

I have a friend who is terrified of the virus (beyond rational levels as she and family are all very low risk)...she has gone above and beyond the rules all the way through and yet...on Friday hosted a 70th birthday party for her high risk uncle indoors with 15 family members and no social distancing (at least for photos on social media).

I saw that and realised that when it comes to seeing friends and family over A/W the majority of people will put themselves in risky situations.

I mean it's the first time she's broken the rules (and I'm not judging) but it's literally one of the highest risk things you can do....family coming together from different areas of the country, no social distancing, all indoors without ventilation and with at least 3 people 70+ with underlying health conditions.

And some of the family were children back at school so plenty of opportunity for them to have been exposed and then sitting on Uncle's knee.

Cases here (South East) are still relatively low but I can only imagine how guilty they'd all feel if they have Uncle COVID for his 70th!

whats the % of Asian people in critical care continues to alarm. 30% of patients in ICU is a hell of a lot.

Anyone seen a recent breakdown of occupations?

@Piggywaspushed

whats the % of Asian people in critical care continues to alarm. 30% of patients in ICU is a hell of a lot.

Anyone seen a recent breakdown of occupations?

It makes sense in terms of areas of biggest outbreak in late August / early Sept though doesn't it - Leicester, Bradford, Oldham, etc all have much higher % of Asian ethnicity than the country average?

Nellodee the article says at the end that if we look at all identified clusters, not just those that are ongoing, then businesses go back to being the main contributor.

I actually find that more worrying, as that suggests there is a huge and rapid increase in school and university clusters. Educational settings represents 32% of ongoing clusters, but only 16% of previously investigated clusters.

They are now the largest source of transmission except care homes, and immediate family.

Also that data drops on 21st September. Anecdotally it appears to have risen since then. This may explain why we've been told the rectorat (local authority) is planning for total school closure. They don't want to be caught out again if they're given the orders.

The news was reporting this morning that we risk being at over 1000 ICU admissions per day of we carry on as we are, and that's with more serious measures in some areas as of this weekend.

Anyone else notice this is the sky report "The admission on the app's official Twitter account would have meant the results of just under a third (29%) of the tests carried out a day after the app went live could not be linked."

A high percentage of tests being carried out by the NHS.

Part of the high asian figure may be down to recognising who is most at risk and getting them into ICU, also to where infection rates are rising fastest.

Forgot - not clear to me if the Zoe ap figures were scaled up or straight numbers reporting, that may be why one of the papers has come up with a bigger figure.

Stops, not drops.

I was at regional teacher training on Friday. Over 50 teachers from across 5 different departements, including those of us from Seine-Maritime which has very high numbers (hence the anecdotal reportig on clusters). We were required to be there, and all absolutely incredulous that they think it's a good idea. We have several more training days between now and the holidays, and we can't believe it isn't being done via video conference.

@alreadytaken - high Asian figures just match with case volume; particularly in the North West the surveillance report still shows the highest proportion of people with covid are from the Pakistani community.

Wheresmymojo which is why I assume, we're not allowed in each others houses at the moment, or meet up with more than 1 other household, in Scotland.
The way the rule of 6 has been promoted in England, as far as I can see, doesn't seem to stress that distancing is still important.

It's the just that is concerning, though. 30% is way in excess of representation of the Asian community in the general population.

fingon , that is madness.