Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 20

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 20 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
Modelling real number of infections February to date
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

Request to posters giving a link:
Please do so in full, so people can see in advance what they are clicking
Also at least a brief title so we know what the link is about

Surely it is most important that pillar 2 cases are registered on the app because these are the ones in the community that need to be tracked and traced. The pillar 1 ones are in hospital tracing of patients and staff and they already know where they are anyway.

@BigChocFrenzy totally agree ! I’m a bit like that with going to office. But easy to get anxious about things when you aren’t doing them and often the reality not quite as bad- that was definitely dd’s experience, time away made her more anxious about going back. But then it’s been fine. Interesting to look into how other teenagers felt as lockdown went on.

@tootyfruitypickle

Like *@MarshaBradyo* I also looked into that report and it was so early in lockdown to be meaningless. My Dd started off far less stressed and would have recorded this effect at the time of the survey - but was an anxious mess by the end. Completely ok now back at school thank goodness

... Maybe it is the most vulnerable, desperate children at school who had relief, obviously not those who enjoy school and their friendship groups

The ONS statistics for suicide were to 30 June, so would have picked up the later part of lockdown too.

Of course, the exam cockup is a stressful but separate matter:
other countries who locked down seem to have made better choices

I hear you BCF!

Although I enjoyed the mental stimulation at school I hated the social aspects.

Office working was hell. I adore Wfh and so fortunate it is available to me.

[quote tootyfruitypickle]@BigChocFrenzy totally agree ! I’m a bit like that with going to office. But easy to get anxious about things when you aren’t doing them and often the reality not quite as bad- that was definitely dd’s experience, time away made her more anxious about going back. But then it’s been fine. Interesting to look into how other teenagers felt as lockdown went on.[/quote]
...
I retired in Feb, but I never minded work - because I could choose where and what

School was like a particularly harsh prison sentence of about 13 years

Interesting:
Two Nobel Prize-winning economists have urged France to consider an Advent lockdown

Yes I think so re most vulnerable and relief. Which would make sense re CAMHS talking about lower anxiety for their students they see.

Ds was fine at the beginning but really lagged. Being able to see friends half way though helped. But back to normal first day back to school.

Re suicide is this being used as a statement against lockdown elsewhere? Ie overstated against figures? I haven’t looked into it but I think bad effects such as DV, alcoholism etc will be more marked as people feel they lack power to change circumstances or feel isolated.

My marriage was DV. It makes me cold to think of being in it during lockdown. People in that situation will be feeling desperate as services so limited, harder to find a job (this was the key to me leaving), to find new accommodation etc, difficult to run to elderly parents etc. If abuser works, any relief from that with having some time alone will be gone. Then everything playing out in front of DC Just awful.

Any idea as to what an advent lockdown would look like?

Full lockdown was brutal for my teen. No siblings, school, friends or sport ( which she used to do approx 12 hours, outwith school ).
When we were allowed to meet up outside with someone, her and her pals were all freaked out about going out, to start with...but soon got over that.
They've adapted to socialising outside. Helps that Edinburgh has fab outside spaces, including beaches.
I just hope that the schools can stay open for as long as possible (QR codes to scan now introduced for different areas of DD's school ), but the recent rise in Scotland and Edinburgh, makes me wonder if they'll open after the October holiday. I think stay local travel restrictions will be next though.

Anyway, lower suicides and RTAs etc is no reason to have a lockdown !
Instead, we need to work on making school less stressful for the minority who hate it

Advent lockdown...

I gather the proposal in France is that people would do their christmas shopping in November
Lockdown 1-20 December
then be free to spend the Christmas holiday with extended family members
So, the aim seems to be both a chainbreak and "saving Christman" ... but the latter may render the former pointless

A radical idea, but imo not particularly worthwhile, in the sense of getting enough bang for the lockdown buck

It would make sense to close schools two weeks before Christmas .

I’d rather them in school but I have exam year child and my family is o/s so can’t see them anyway

Looks like the issue with the app and recording tests has been fixed

news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-nhs-tracing-app-problem-that-left-tens-of-thousands-of-tests-unlogged-has-been-fixed-government-says-12082178

I’m thinking more because people will do Christmas anyway. I’m seeing my elderly parents at the end of the two week holiday, not on Christmas Day .

Worrying that New York has recorded 1005 new cases today. Apparently the highest since 5th June.

Just thinking, the new NHS app monitors the length of time you are

@FingonTheValiant

Worrying that New York has recorded 1005 new cases today. Apparently the highest since 5th June.

.... oh not again

At least one NYC burough had 70% antibodies and last I heard was that NYC averaged 30%
That should hopefully limit a 2nd wave into a small ripple

The Sunday People has a front page headline about "500,000 Long Covid sufferers" being let down by the government

Hopefully they are over-estimating by at least a factor of 10 - I've seen no evidence that the current number is anywhere near this magnitude

The Guardian reported a study which estimated 60,000. And another interviewed 4000 GPs and a third said they had patients with long Covid.

BBC reported:

‘ Tim Spector, professor of genetic epidemiology at King's College London and leader of the Covid Symptom Study app, said around 300,000 people in the UK have reported symptoms lasting for more than a month - so called "long Covid".

I just saw this thread and just wanted to say about DV because I feel it keeps being seen like DV victims are immune from the virus. I'm in a refuge and although it's hard anyway the big reason I keep thinking I may need to go home is because of the virus. I know I can't speak for other victims and I'm no longer in my twenties or thirties so higher risk than some. I'd rather my ex killed me than the virus. It would be quicker and he'd go to prison. I feel like he'd get away with it if I catch it here. I'm in a refuge because of him so if I die of the virus from being here it's because of him but he'll get away with it. Anyway sorry for coming on to this thread. It's stupid of me too to be so public about it all but I just keep seeing people talk about DV and the lockdown and the virus.

Is Sunday People owned by the Mirror? If so it's probably this story: www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/scandal-500000-long-covid-victims-22747986

Doesn't seem to give any source for 500,000 people, so no idea where that figure comes from?

Tim Spector of CoVid App said here 60,000 of people reporting symptoms still after 3 months.

www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-long-covid-symptoms-months-fatigue-breathlessness-b406206.html

*Just thinking, the new NHS app monitors the length of time you are