Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 20

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 20 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
Modelling real number of infections February to date
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

Request to posters giving a link:
Please do so in full, so people can see in advance what they are clicking
Also at least a brief title so we know what the link is about

re teen suicides, that study and lower ONS numbers:

it needs investigating why "normal life" could be more stressful for teens than a damn lockdown
Academic pressure, peer bullying at school ?

Is that teen study the same one that was reported in August but conducted in May?

It appears to be:

When surveyed in May - several weeks after schools shut to most pupils and nationwide lockdown restrictions came into force - the proportion dropped to 45% of girls and 18% of boys.

Results will be different after long term lack of school.

My very rough estimation is that our growth seems to be roughly three times slower than at this point than in March. In March, it took around 1 week to go from 30 cases to over a hundred, so I think a four week period to get there, allowing for a little slowing, is about right.

30 deaths, sorry.

Place marking. Thanks for the great thread - over time.

From actual report

Participants were contacted by their schools in April/May 2020 during lockdown and invited to complete a similar survey online.

7 day moving average by specimen date for confirmed cases in England.

Up to the 23rd Sep - so with the caveat that there will be more cases still to be added to the 23rd along with the few days prior to that. The 23rd September will increase from the current 4151 cases.

It needs investigating why "normal life" could be more stressful for teens than a damn lockdown. Academic pressure, peer bullying at school?

I'm not sure it's that surprising. After all, there are plenty of adults who also enjoyed the change from going to work-and felt it less stressful, even though they often had children to look after, money/job worries etc.

From my side, I enjoyed school pretty much entirely. However I used to regularly be ill for the first day or so of any holiday (most frustrating it was) with relaxing into it. I still do tend to get ill if I've been under pressure and you take the pressure off.
I missed almost no school days but was almost always ill beginning of half term and full holidays throughout secondary.
I looked forward to going back the next term too.

From my dc's side. Ds would tell you it has been the best 6 months of his life. He's had little work to do, and able to spend time doing what he wants. He'll tell you he's crossed two things off his bucket list (one being having a drip in as he had his appendix out). He is definitely more stressed being back at school.

DD2 would tell you that her MH suffered from being off. She was GCSE year, so slightly different from younger ds. However I would say from knowing her that actually she's been far more relaxed and her MH has generally been better all round. I'll also note that she was quite happy being off until news articles starting saying that children's MH was suffering. This could be a fluke but she's always been very easily influenced by reading how she "should" feel.
She's been able to reduce some of her medication significantly and her mood is calmer than it's been for years. It's done her, mostly, a lot of good.
I also note that having gone back, despite generally enjoying doing A-levels, she's not as enamoured with it as she made out she was while she was off, and is beginning to vocally look forward to half term.

I read into that report because it was at odds with Ds. And I wasn’t surprised it was from April / May. That’s not long out of what would have been Easter break.

He’s happy back at school but likes to be active and around people, not in front of a screen learning. He’s not an anxious person generally though.

Interesting new studies looking at inadequate interferon response in people with severe covid-19

www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/09/hidden-immune-weakness-found-14-gravely-ill-covid-19-patients

This is interesting (and concerning) as regards symptoms and testing for children :

schoolsweek.co.uk/government-flying-blind-over-covid-tests-for-pupils/

The ONS suicide stats were Q1+Q2, so until just before iirc restaurants etc opened up on 4 July
Should have covered lockdown & beyond, but let's see if there are updated figures due to e.g. delayed inquests

I must look it up, but I remember learning about mental health during the Blitz, when suicide rates really plummeted and it was put down to the increased feeling of community, of ‘pulling together’ for a common cause, despite the obvious trauma, people’s homes decimated, discomfort.

I often wondered if there would be a similar increase in overall mental wellbeing during this pandemic and the results do seem to be going that way.

Teenagers can be thoroughly obnoxious to each other and if you are not in school you dont have to talk to/ see the worst of them. You also probably get more parental attention. I can see why it would improve mental health for the more vulnerable children.

Regional breakdown - cases and cases per 100,000 over the last four seven day periods. I've taken 17th-23rd as the most recent, likely more cases will be added to that week, however given the upward trajectory I think we can live with that; well I can at least.

every region has an upward trajectory; however a number are well below the overall rate for England, including London; however, caveat time again; if there is, as Sadiq Khan has stated, insufficient testing available in particular regions then this will depress the numbers.

That said the differences between the higher cases per 100,000 regions and the lower ones is vast.

it needs investigating why "normal life" could be more stressful for teens than a damn lockdown
Academic pressure, peer bullying at school ?

A couple of things - firstly the data isn't final, the numbers do go up as more cases go past the coroner. But that's probably not that many in the younger groups as they are possibly simpler for the coroner.

A big reason though is lack of opportunity, lockdown with your family is not an easy time to commit suicide, you both have immediate crisis support of some sort available to you and limited time alone with the freedom to act and it be deadly. Need to disentangle that effect from assuming it was simply a relief from normal life. All suicides dropped considerably, women more than men, and teenagers more than adults, although Q2 2019 was a significantly bad period for teenagers, which also makes the drop look higher.

@IceCreamSummer20

I must look it up, but I remember learning about mental health during the Blitz, when suicide rates really plummeted and it was put down to the increased feeling of community, of ‘pulling together’ for a common cause, despite the obvious trauma, people’s homes decimated, discomfort.

I often wondered if there would be a similar increase in overall mental wellbeing during this pandemic and the results do seem to be going that way.

Gosh I’d really question this! But interested to know more.

We are seeing some bad side effects - DV increase / alcohol up / child line calls up - R4

Will have a look around. This is June so furlough still going strong for this

MH report

Cites social isolation, job loss, housing insecurity, reduction of mh services as bringing negative impact

Our local CAMHS was saying that for many children who suffered from anxiety, lockdown was a relief.

I keep thinking, surely we can't really take any figures from Pillar 2 as an accurate measure, because it is so hard to get a test at the moment? True rates will be much higher.

not that it makes much difference to the regional figures, but using the correct calculation for that last week, a corrected table.

I expect if you are within the group that suffers anxiety and accesses CAMHS that would be the case.

But long term more doubtful that it is beneficial to majority of children.

re the problem with the App ?

Have the govt really authorised an app that only links to tests carried out by the private Lighthouse lab network, not those by NHS hospital labs, PHE labs or ONS surveillance studies ?

@MarshaBradyo

I expect if you are within the group that suffers anxiety and accesses CAMHS that would be the case.

But long term more doubtful that it is beneficial to majority of children.

... No, but many MN posters have expressed concern about a massive rise in suicides in lockdown - some even claiming this would already exceed Covid deaths

The effects of the Covid recession on suicides over the next couple of years depend on its severity and how well / badly the government cushions the effects.
Of course the UK will uniquely suffer the double whammy of a very hard Brexit from January, that would worsen the recession, but that is nothing to do with Covid or lockdown

Like @MarshaBradyo I also looked into that report and it was so early in lockdown to be meaningless. My Dd started off far less stressed and would have recorded this effect at the time of the survey - but was an anxious mess by the end. Completely ok now back at school thank goodness

@BigChocFrenzy

re the problem with the App ?

Have the govt really authorised an app that only links to tests carried out by the private Lighthouse lab network, not those by NHS hospital labs, PHE labs or ONS surveillance studies ?

I haven't reviewed how it was tested.

Wouldn't surprise me if they tested from Pillar 2 and never actually even gave thought to the other pillars.

Hopefully it is just that as it should hopefully be relatively easy to sort out. Although not always........

But really these type of things always have bugs in them which are often not discovered in UAT.

As an Aspie hermit, I absolutely hated school:

being forced to spend several hours, plus bus travel, Mon-Fri in a place I hated with people I would never have voluntarily been with, wearing a bloody uniform I hated too
And that was decades before any additional pressure of testing, league tables etc

Schooldays were far and away the worst time of my life; I had occasional nightmares about school until I was about 40
Nothing in adult life was remotely that bad, because I had the power to make decisions about the basics of life:
what to wear, what kind of work to do, who to be with etc