Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 20

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 20 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
Modelling real number of infections February to date
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

Request to posters giving a link:
Please do so in full, so people can see in advance what they are clicking
Also at least a brief title so we know what the link is about

[quote NeurotrashWarrior]lockdownsceptics.org/addressing-the-cv19-second-wave/[/quote]
Well that's aged very poorly. A lot of their argument hinged on the fact that deaths and hospitalisations hadn't risen in line with increases in case numbers here, in France and in Spain but we all know now that hospitalisations and deaths are rising. They also tried to argue that there's no second wave, it's just the first wave hitting new locations - Madrid having high numbers of cases now and in March disproves that.
The T cell stuff is taken out of context - an author of one of the papers the minimizers like to quote has been saying this on twitter. The PCR test stuff is just bollocks - we might be finding some cases that are no longer infectious but these wouldn't cause the positivity rate to increase as these will be a steady proportion of recently recovered cases. False negatives are a way bigger problem.

That sceptics paper is really hard to read because there are so many errors in it it's hard to know where to begin - and I lose the will to live reading rubbish.

Still I suppose we must so "It is now established that at least 30% of our population already had immunological recognition of this new virus, before it even arrived"

Even these idiots admit "objections might be raised about the clinical correlates of this T-cell recognition. While that is a fair challenge, it would be unreasonable to dismiss it and assume is has no relevance."

So scientists didnt actually dismiss the idea until it became obvious that it was wrong. Far more people got infected in populations that were studied carefully (the cruise ship, italian town, mumbai slums) that was compatible with this hypothesis. Scientists discard an hypothesis when the evidence shows it is wrong, therefore these people are self-important idiots and not worth more of my time.

[quote TheSunIsStillShining]@AnythingLegalConsidered
Because of another thread discussion I looked up suicide rates and during the covid period there were less suicides by teens. That was an interesting find. 65 compared to 100, Q1-2 2019 for ages 0-19.

My worry is that the shitshow that the gov is putting on with schools will cause a comparative rise potentially.

And I'll also be looking at it with interest in the long run how the now often cited "huge mental health issues for kids" will or will not translate into actual MH issues.
I think there are a lot of parents who project their fears, anxieties to their kids and it's not actually the kids that have MH issues.
----
I am also flabbergasted by what the unis are doing. It was a predictable (so preventable) outcome that young ppl going to a certain place from all over the country will lead to a rise in cases and that most lessons will have to be online. And that is what happening, but with the added stress of having to be in lockdown in a dormroom. I really think the kids/young adults would have been better off with with full online courses only (where applicable).[/quote]
I'm not surprised by the figures for suicides amongst teens, bearing in mind the study by the University of Bristol that found anxiety levels in young teens were lower during lockdown:
sphr.nihr.ac.uk/news-and-events/new-report-shows-young-peoples-mental-health-improved-during-lockdown/
sphr.nihr.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Young-Peoples-Mental-Health-during-the-COVID-19-Pandemic-Report.pdf

Sage expert warns of 100 deaths a day within four weeks

This is a clear prediction and very short terms, plausible, so let's see if this happens,
also to assess modelling being given to govt

(Medium term modelling has too many variables, but getting it significantly wrong for just 4 weeks ahead would considerably reduce my confidence in the modelling)

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/26/uk-will-see-100-coronavirus-deaths-a-day-within-four-weeks-sage-expert-warns

The UK’s daily coronavirus death toll will rise from 34 to 100 a day in three to four weeks’ time,
an expert on the government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) has warned.

Infectious disease modelling expert Prof Graham Medley said there is little that can be done now to prevent daily deaths climbing to 100
– but “we need to make sure transmission comes down now” to prevent the figure increasing further.

223 people on ventilation in England today and figures rising, he's likely to be right.

@wintertravel1980

The daily number of tests has not been updated since yesterday so I am afraid the 243k tests performed is an old number.

6042 positive tests is a bit too good to be true. I am afraid there might be a catch up coming. The numbers for England looks low.

The good news, however, is that the hospital admissions in England have been flattish over past 4 days (288 cases reported today vs 314 reported yesterday).

Have a look at the first part of the indie SAGE broadcast yesterday. There were indications there that the increase in numbers was flattening out, so I'd be inclined to some optimism that the daily figures might be plateauing, at least for the time being.

It's good that the overall numbers of tests had gone up yesterday, that is going to be really important for us to have some some idea what is going on.

On the other hand, it is of course a weekend (however that is affecting data collection now)

"Another 6,042 COVID-19 cases in UK - first drop after five straight days of rises
It comes as contact tracing app developers say over 60,000 tests carried out in England on Friday cannot be linked to its systems."

here

On T Cells:
mobile.twitter.com/profshanecrotty/status/1309170530126376960

I was just about to post this @herecomesthesun

uk.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-britain-apps/englands-covid-19-app-does-not-accept-a-third-of-test-results-idUKKBN26H0JK

So what exactly is the point of this app? Is the issue with tests linked to who made it?

On Toby Young's grasp of false positives
mobile.twitter.com/BristOliver/status/1308413427409444865

(He eventually deleted it a day or two after several people called him out on it).

Toby Young /Lockdown sceptics = right wing 'commentator' / grifter with an agenda and not in any way, shape or form an expert in infectious diseases, immunology, virology, public health etc.

I get the covid message from little owl.

It says infection in my area has fallen this week and last week.

However I know local sm is absolutely raging because people cannot get tested.
People with symptoms or a family member and no one can get a test.

Why is it too good to be true?

6042 cases vs 243k tests today in comparison to 6800+ cases vs 243k tests yesterday would have been too good to be true. I suspect the number for today is lower (at least partially) because we have processed fewer tests.

I also hope the numbers might be flattening up judging by hospital admissions but, of course, it is way too early to say anything with certainty.

The only question on hitting 100 deaths a day is whether we get there in 3 weeks or 4.

For the anti-maskers I

"n Joplin, Missouri, a mask ordinance was allowed to expire in mid-August as virus fatigue grew. Since then, the number of positive cases there and in surrounding Jasper County — a deeply conservative county that Trump won by more than 50 percentage points over Hillary Clinton in 2016 — has risen about 80%." from

apnews.com/article/virus-outbreak-iowa-new-york-city-new-york-michael-brown-050ddaa249c97c222d4fd2f1460dbd94

I notice by specimen date that 22nd was 5883, reported figure 4926. Usually the comparison shows a trend, it can get messed up by test delays, but right now 22nd is expected to be near complete and it's lower than 6042. Lower numbers are always welcome, but I'm not sure that they're lower yet.

A fall in every single region of England, seems to be a good sign (unless some kind of major issues or delay with testing that I am unaware of?)
mobile.twitter.com/Anshul__K/status/1309881493574090752

Although aware not to read too much in one days data, look for the trend etc.....

major issue like inability to get a test perhaps?

Some good news - viral lowers do appear to have declined, although these are unpublished studies www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/09/falling-covid-19-viral-loads-may-explain-lower-rates-icu-use-deaths

The government literally can't lose.

Numbers lower than predicted, their measures are working.

Higher than predicted, it's our fault for not obeying the government.

I promised this earlier so here it is.

The number of cases over 7 days up to and including Sept 21. T

There are 315 councils in England in total and while they are all on this bar chart, all their names can't fit on the axis. So for anyone wanting to benchmark their council vis-a-vis the rest of England, check your councils number of cases over 7 days and eyeball the chart to have a sense of where your council falls. I have added some data labels to the bars so you can see the approx value level. And for anyone wanting more granularity you can get the data here
www.covidmessenger.com/coronavirusliveupdate/

And I apologise, it's not the best chart - 314 bars on a bar chart is never going to be particularly readable but it does give you a sense of how concentrated the recent surge in cases is - 76% of cases occurred in 25% of councils.

@AlecTrevelyan006

The government literally can't lose.

Numbers lower than predicted, their measures are working.

Higher than predicted, it's our fault for not obeying the government.

Or higher than predicted "actually some of them are for earlier days"/"we tested more today so would expect higher".

Thank you for those expert analysis!

I don't know why but it makes me feel more at ease

Dh did point out that current death trends in Europe outdate it.

@BigChocFrenzy
Yes, sorry, should be automatic by now :)
www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/deathscausedbysuicidebyquarterinengland

I've actually realised that this is only for England. I still automatically expect data to be for whole country.....

[quote TheSunIsStillShining]@BigChocFrenzy
Yes, sorry, should be automatic by now :)
www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/deathscausedbysuicidebyquarterinengland

I've actually realised that this is only for England. I still automatically expect data to be for whole country.....[/quote]
....
Thanks, sun

Love your watchlist little owl

Your daily email is always eagerly awaited

I check cases on gov dashboard daily but you email outs it all into perspective, is quick and visually simple and a great summary.

Saves me having to expend brain every doing the math

Brain energy!

I also prefer rank per 100k of population. Mh town has 120k so it's easier to compere against bigger cities and towns with much larger population as well as small villages.