Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 20

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 20 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
Modelling real number of infections February to date
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

Request to posters giving a link:
Please do so in full, so people can see in advance what they are clicking
Also at least a brief title so we know what the link is about

I believe after the age of one, injury or accident is quite a significant cause of death amongst children, although I didn't think it was the highest one like this website does

www.rcpch.ac.uk/resources/why-children-die-research-recommendations

Fewer children would have been involved in RTAs during lockdown, fewer sports being played - I can see why accidental deaths would fall.

Under ones is interesting as I think the UK has a comparatively high infant mortality rate linked to prematurity.

That is interesting re lower death rates from all causes in under 14s, @AnythingLegalConsidered.

Could fewer RTAs involving children be a factor? (not going to school and activities)

But yes, it would be a good thing to look into.

I think there is an expectation that women work up to as close as possible to there due date now and 'pregnancy is not an illness' culture when actually, outcomes might be a lot better if we encouraged pregnant women to put their feet up a bit more and facilitated them doing so.

I say this only as there appears to be some suggestion that the drop in premature births may have had something to do with this.

When I finished, I arrived in to the kitchen to find plaster-of-paris all over the kitchen floor after an independent craft session

@littleowl1 Well now I'm even more impressed at how good your messenger service is given you're also dealing with things like this. :) - good luck with it.

I like all the information currently in the emails and agree, as it's clearly laid out and you need to scroll down to see the watchlist information, if you don't want to see it, easy not to. My parents also get your emails for their area now (70s so they need to be very careful) and finding helpful.

Satsunday I'm also interested in discussion about that question - at what level is taking children out of school sensible? I know it also depends on factors such as parents health status and age, but I have no sense of at what number I need to think about taking action. A discussion about this would be good.

This is why I've been trying to look at hospital admissions for covid specifically in my local area - but finding it hard to find local data that isn't quite out of date by the time it's published (and which is confirmed covid). I think the triage data on the dashboard can be quite mismatched with the testing data. In our area testing data shows relatively low levels of positive sars-cov-2 but triage is currently high - probably down to the other respiratory viruses with similar initial symptoms circulating since schools back? But possibly also local testing problems / delays underreporting cases?

It seems to me covid diagnosed in hospital and admitted even without a positive test is probably one of the most reliable metrics, if it could be found (I know it's available nationally). ICU staff presumably know what it looks like now. 111 and 999 I think are inevitably going to be less accurate. And they probably need to flag anything possibly covid in order to do the correct infection control pathway at the hospital... then weed out those that aren't coronavirus? Just thinking aloud here...

Anecdotally - before lockdown, we took our DD out on 10th March - the school was about to do an indoor activity with a number of other local schools and we thought that was a bad idea at the time - our timing was right, several children caught coronavirus at the school in the last week and a half, and their parents caught it from them and suffered badly with some still struggling with long covid (with impact on ability to work and hence finances) - all people in our age group.

714 new cases in Scotland today

@AnythingLegalConsidered
Because of another thread discussion I looked up suicide rates and during the covid period there were less suicides by teens. That was an interesting find. 65 compared to 100, Q1-2 2019 for ages 0-19.

My worry is that the shitshow that the gov is putting on with schools will cause a comparative rise potentially.

And I'll also be looking at it with interest in the long run how the now often cited "huge mental health issues for kids" will or will not translate into actual MH issues.
I think there are a lot of parents who project their fears, anxieties to their kids and it's not actually the kids that have MH issues.
----
I am also flabbergasted by what the unis are doing. It was a predictable (so preventable) outcome that young ppl going to a certain place from all over the country will lead to a rise in cases and that most lessons will have to be online. And that is what happening, but with the added stress of having to be in lockdown in a dormroom. I really think the kids/young adults would have been better off with with full online courses only (where applicable).

[quote Satsunday]@herecomesthsun what level are the figures in your area if you don't mind me asking? Although my area isn't on the watchlist there were over 90 cases in the last week which is 45 per 100000. Is that high? I am in a similar position to you as previously shielding and while I keep am eye on the figures I don't know when to act!! I'm ready to take them out of school when needed but can't tell when that would be sensible so interested in other people's views.[/quote]
It's really hard to know what "limit" to act on. Son's school area is coming up as 5 cases per 100k over 7 days, daughter's school, where we live, is coming up as 11 cases per 100K over 7 days.

We are all set to home school if needed, but we think they are okay where they are for the time being. There is still an element of risk, however,

@herecomesthsun
It’s heading towards 80 per 100,000 here which is scary. GM. Still sending kids to school but loads locally have had issues and sent kids home etc.

sorry, checked again son's school is actually 20 per 100k (I think I can see how that mistake happened

But still we are lucky that this is relatively low...

We are all quite interested in maths in our family, so all check the figures regularly.

@herecomesthsun
as a vulnerable person i have not sent my son back. I know that the school had to report it after 10 days, we'll see what happens with the LEA.
Our school has the catchment area of almost full London + some surrounding areas like Reading/Guildford and 80% of the kids take public transport. IMO these 2 factors make it higher risk than ... let's say a primary where most kids walk to from a much smaller area.

I looked up suicide rates and during the covid period there were less suicides by teens. That was an interesting find. 65 compared to 100, Q1-2 2019 for ages 0-19.

Interesting - I think it's good to have actual data. Often it doesn't show what people assume (i.e. that lockdown caused huge rises in suicides)

I agree that I think the uncertainty and disruption of the current situation with schools - poor testing, no SD, bubbles closing etc, and the constant fear of this happening - will cause worse mental health.

Certainly I'm much more anxious now, knowing the indoor, poorly ventilated no SD and no masks environment my kids are going into daily. Who wouldn't be, really? I'm sure it does have some knock on effect on them though I try hard not to let it. I do wonder, every time they come to kiss and hug me, if they've caught it.... I didn't feel this way at all when DD1 was in a socially distanced class for 4 weeks in June and July.

Universities - I think it's scandalous - they could do it all online but halls of residence are where they make most of their money. That's the only reason they're going back.

(for many courses - not things like medicine naturally)

[quote pussycatinboots]@littleowl1
completely off subject, but how do you remove plaster-of-paris from floor tiles? 🤔🤞🏻[/quote]
Have you tried vinegar?

lemon juice for the plaster of paris or cola if you havent got vinegar? Cola is really acidic, cleans toilets well.

More evidence that checking sewage would be useful www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/08/poop-tests-stop-covid-19-outbreak-university-arizona

@TheSunIsStillShining

Did you notice any trend in suicide rates for other ages?

Could you point me to the data?

Better news today? 34 deaths. 6048 cases despite > 245k tests- so pretty steady.

6042 positive tests today, which on a positive is less than yesterday. Always got to look on the bright side.

Thanks for this thread, find out more useful facts here than anywhere else

Sorry you're right Emma 6042

Hi, I need to catch up on the thread.

A number of skeptics are sharing this.

I wondered if anyone had any thoughts or knowledge of criticism of it?

One mum I know is using it as evidence there's no need to wear a mask,

lockdownsceptics.org/addressing-the-cv19-second-wave/

The daily number of tests has not been updated since yesterday so I am afraid the 243k tests performed is an old number.

6042 positive tests is a bit too good to be true. I am afraid there might be a catch up coming. The numbers for England looks low.

The good news, however, is that the hospital admissions in England have been flattish over past 4 days (288 cases reported today vs 314 reported yesterday).

[quote TheSunIsStillShining]@AnythingLegalConsidered
Because of another thread discussion I looked up suicide rates and during the covid period there were less suicides by teens. That was an interesting find. 65 compared to 100, Q1-2 2019 for ages 0-19.

My worry is that the shitshow that the gov is putting on with schools will cause a comparative rise potentially.

And I'll also be looking at it with interest in the long run how the now often cited "huge mental health issues for kids" will or will not translate into actual MH issues.
I think there are a lot of parents who project their fears, anxieties to their kids and it's not actually the kids that have MH issues.
----
I am also flabbergasted by what the unis are doing. It was a predictable (so preventable) outcome that young ppl going to a certain place from all over the country will lead to a rise in cases and that most lessons will have to be online. And that is what happening, but with the added stress of having to be in lockdown in a dormroom. I really think the kids/young adults would have been better off with with full online courses only (where applicable).[/quote]
Problem is with children’s MH is that it is usually enmeshed within family systems, so projection, splitting and identification get all absorbed, even under normal conditions. Children, especially teenagers need to be able to separate and form own identity which they can’t do under lockdown.

Suicides down:

"65 compared to 100, Q1-2 2019 for ages 0-19."

==> Could you give the links to this, please

Why is it too good to be true? There’s always going to be a bit of fluctuation from day to day but the overall trend upwards is still quite clear.