Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 20

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 20 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
Modelling real number of infections February to date
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

Request to posters giving a link:
Please do so in full, so people can see in advance what they are clicking
Also at least a brief title so we know what the link is about

@littleowl1 I receive your daily emails for my local boroughs and find them very useful and informative, particularly with the addition of watchlist status. My vote is to keep including it. Thank you for providing the service, it is much appreciated.

So how does this work? My toe doesn't matter but my brother's borough does

*town. Obviously my toe matters

And thank you littleowl for your fabulous service

@littleowl1
Personally I love it. As it's at the bottom, if people only want the basics, they don't need to scroll down. simples.
Living in Cheshire, it's getting to when not if, so any any info I can get is good info.
Thank you again for all your work on this.
I keep passing the link on.

Another vote for keeping it! Thank you.

@HoldingTight

I do agree its a bit of a black box. But for what its worth here is what PHE say in their Surveilllance report:

"The Watchlist is produced by first considering the lower tier local authorities with the highest weekly
incidence rate and its trend, combined with a range of other indicators including the test positivity
rate, an assessment of the local response and plans, and the trend of other metrics such as
healthcare activity and mortality. The classification decision is therefore a blended assessment drawing on professional judgement."

In the midst of the watchlist build out and plaster of paris debacle yesterday afternoon I didnt manage to read the full article but I did see somewhere that the bulk of London boroughs were added as a precautionary measure as cases have started rising.

I kind of get this. its a really large area of high population density and if one area of city has outbreak it probably will require quite significant management and oversight to control. So I get the impression (my opinion only - not qualified!!) that London boroughs went on earlier than might happen in less populated areas as the speed at which it could get out of control if they didnt get on top of it quickly would be really significant. But that is me speculating!!

They just added all London Boroughs regardless of actual rates in the individual one including boroughs where it never got out of control, or even many cases despite no protective measures. I'm sure it was just "all of them", rather than selecting individual ones.

Another here thanking little owl for my helpful emails .

We are finding little owl's messaging service so very useful. We were shielding but the children are currently back in school. It is very reassuring to know that our area's figures are currently low, as it is great to have the kids back, at least for a bit, but we would want to be careful if the risks increase. So thank you very very much.

@littleowl1
completely off subject, but how do you remove plaster-of-paris from floor tiles? 🤔🤞🏻

@littleowl1my vote is keep it in. I can’t thank you enough for your emails, they are so useful and I’m so grateful for your work.

Thank you all. So glad you find useful.

@pussycatinboots I wish I knew! You get it off and then it dries and there are still white smears . Our tiles are about 20 years old and porous so I'm not having much luck getting it off so far!

I'd like to keep it in. It's helpful for me-I'm keeping an eye on my parents' area which was really low, but not on the watchlist,

I like the addition @littleowl1, thank you.

I find the emails really helpful too @littleowl1 and like the addition of the watchlist. Thank you and good luck with the floor!

@littleowl1 - most acids should work, muriatic acid will be best if you have a wickes or similar nearby.

Littleowl I am still really appreciating your emails, they are excellent. I haven’t found it too much information and often scroll down to see list.

@herecomesthsun what level are the figures in your area if you don't mind me asking? Although my area isn't on the watchlist there were over 90 cases in the last week which is 45 per 100000. Is that high? I am in a similar position to you as previously shielding and while I keep am eye on the figures I don't know when to act!! I'm ready to take them out of school when needed but can't tell when that would be sensible so interested in other people's views.

Thanks for all the feedback - very helpful.
And @MRex thanks for the plaster of Paris tip. I will try that!

@herecomesthsun
If you click the “live update” link on my website you can see the number of cases for all the councils in England and there is also a rank column so you can get a feel for how your council compares. The rank is on the total number of cases (not cases per 100k). Although I am deliberating changing this.

Here is the link:

www.covidmessenger.com/coronavirusliveupdate/

If I have time later I will try to knock a chart together of cases over last week for all councils and will post it here. Which will make it easier to see how your council is doing. It will be evening before I get to doing this and depending how day goes I might not manage to till Monday but I will try

I'd prefer rank per 100k of population, as I think that's a more accurate check. (others may disagree)
Thank you for doing it.

[quote MRex]@littleowl1 - most acids should work, muriatic acid will be best if you have a wickes or similar nearby.[/quote]
be careful though as some type of floor tiles can be eroded by acids.

@Witchend

I'd prefer rank per 100k of population, as I think that's a more accurate check. (others may disagree) Thank you for doing it.

.... For a full picture, one needs both sets of data Ideally in columns with a filter so the user can choose which column to rank by

Where this is not possible, I agree / 100,000 pop is more fundamental

Venturing onto this thread because it’s the only place I can trust a very emotive topic to be discussed without it going off the rails.

I’ve been looking at the weekly excess deaths vs 5 year average by age group on the ONS stats. We all know the story they tells for the over 45s - where we see more than 50,000 excess deaths.
But I’m fascinated by the story of the “missing deaths” in the under 1s and 1-14 age group.

Deaths for each age group over 45 are about 15% up on the year (bearing in mind that that includes the January to March pre-CV period).

But deaths in the under 1s are 10% down and in the 1-14s they’re 15% down. That equates to about 200 fewer deaths in infants and about 100 in children. It’s a minor story in the wider picture but I wonder whether there are positive lessons we can learn. In particular I’d guess that the lower number of infant deaths may be linked to the reported large reduction in premature births during lockdown in many countries. If we can find out why that is then we may be able to replicate it, but it might involve having some very difficult discussions.

Another adding my thanks Little Owl. I love getting the daily emails. Funnily enough I'm in a London borough so on watch list but new app puts my postcode in medium risk catagory