Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 20

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 20 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
Modelling real number of infections February to date
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

Request to posters giving a link:
Please do so in full, so people can see in advance what they are clicking
Also at least a brief title so we know what the link is about

From the surveillance report: "Since 10 August, people who test positive are also asked about places they have been and activities they have done in the days before becoming unwell; eating out was the most commonly reported activity in the 2-7 days prior to symptom onset. Although this does not describe confirmed sources of infection, the information may be helpful to indicate possible places where transmission is happening. Local authorities and local health protection teams investigate links to settings to determine whether any further action is required."

On the tracking - better late than never, at least now there's a month of data. On pubs and restaurants staying open - well, we see now why there's the masks rule.

"Immunity" and T cells

She is a scientist specialising in vaccines & the immune system, who has been investigating T cells re COVID
and has been sounded pretty exasperated with explaining to people (including those quoting her work) that
there is no evidence that T cells are the game-changer some people claim

Shane Crotty@profshanecrotty

2. There is no direct evidence that pre-existing T cell immunity affects COVID-19 infections.

LJI researchers and other have proven that such T cells exist,
but neither we nor anyone else have shown that the pre-existing T cells make COVID-19 better, worse, or no difference.

3. To say it another way,
   There is no direct evidence that crossreactive memory T cells to common cold viruses affects COVID-19.

4. Here's our summary of the topic of pre-existing T cells and COVID-19 in Nature Reviews,

And the @ljiresearch @SetteLab @Dani6020 @ScienceMagazine article.

nature.com/articles/s4157…

We first showed such T cells exist in this paper, but we only SPECULATE that they may impact COVID-19 disease.

cell.com/cell/fulltext/…

Even IF such a pre-existing T cell immunity exists, it would almost certainly not affect herd immunity.

6. Even IF such a pre-existing T cell immunity exists, it would almost certainly not affect herd immunity. (We have a paper about to come out explaining this with @mlipsitch and @yhgrad and @SetteLab)

7. Even IF such a pre-existing T cell immunity exists,
   those people are still susceptible to infection.

COVID-19 disease severity for them would be less bad.

Consistent with statements of CDC director Redfield and Fauci that 90% of Americans are still susceptible to infection.

8. We have made these points and clarifications repeatedly, for months. In Twitter, media, and scientific journals

@MRex

From the surveillance report: "Since 10 August, people who test positive are also asked about places they have been and activities they have done in the days before becoming unwell; eating out was the most commonly reported activity in the 2-7 days prior to symptom onset. Although this does not describe confirmed sources of infection, the information may be helpful to indicate possible places where transmission is happening. Local authorities and local health protection teams investigate links to settings to determine whether any further action is required."

On the tracking - better late than never, at least now there's a month of data. On pubs and restaurants staying open - well, we see now why there's the masks rule.

Causation or correlation?

If you are eating out you are potentially more inclined to be taking risks than people who haven't...

...and if you have broken the law and seen friends and you are asked about what you have been doing and where you have been are you going to tell the truth or say the thing that you are allowed to do... ?

I wonder if eating out will still be the most commonly reported activity, since schools returned? Positive tested cases will have more likely been in school or work. This is only for 10 August - ? mid-September.

www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/breaking-manchester-metropolitan-university-halls-19000596
Manchester Metropolitan University halls of residences locked down amid 127 Covid cases... and 1,700 students will now have to self-isolate

Lucy Powell MP @LucyMPowell
Been kept up to date with this situation as it’s been progressing. Asked that local businesses and residents can get access to tests if they are concerned.

Well this looks like worth following...

Not sure what's happening @EducatingArti. We are effectively sheilding. We have deregistered DC from school. Within three days of the school opening DC's year group and two others were sent home to isolate.

RedToothBrush that flashed up on my phone as I have the MEN app and I was I can't imagine what uni life must be like at the moment and to be locked in halls must be hell. It's not like students have 2 weeks of food in. Hell, no one I knew had more than two days most of the time. There's been footage of illegal parties though so it's no surprise there's lots of cases but I didn't expect so many or for halls to be locked down. So many selfish people about. Seemed foolish to open unis to anything more than online learning though considering rates were rising before term started and letting thousands of teenagers loose away from home for the first time was bound to end in disaster combined with a pandemic.

More on vitamin D news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-vitamin-d-reduces-infection-and-impact-of-covid-19-studies-find-12081132

@MRex

From the surveillance report: "Since 10 August, people who test positive are also asked about places they have been and activities they have done in the days before becoming unwell; eating out was the most commonly reported activity in the 2-7 days prior to symptom onset. Although this does not describe confirmed sources of infection, the information may be helpful to indicate possible places where transmission is happening. Local authorities and local health protection teams investigate links to settings to determine whether any further action is required."

On the tracking - better late than never, at least now there's a month of data. On pubs and restaurants staying open - well, we see now why there's the masks rule.

Eat out to help out may have been a driver?

Is there any data for showing if people were first showing symptoms on a particular diary if the week or tests being of higher demand a particular day if the week? (Usually 5 days after infection/contact so maybe fri-sun?)

Did see a funny meme earlier (if any of this is funny )

It said "last month - eat out to help out. This month - eat up and fuck off"

(paywall) FT: HoC Rebellion - Covid laws

imo, HoC should vote on all future Covid measures
and the Covid emergency powers should need to be renewed by vote every month

www.ft.com/content/2baa55e2-6655-4b3e-8a74-aa0c7e5f31b9

UK opposition parties are uniting around a plan to defeat Boris Johnson in a crucial vote next week
by joining forces with a large group of Conservative backbenchers to give parliament a bigger say over any further coronavirus restrictions.

@RedToothBrush

Just looking through the PHE Contain Framework Lower Tier Local Authority Watchlist Maps.

First of all the data this week is smaller than last week. Theres a lot less areas that they have focused on, and that in itself I think is good news.

If you look at Bolton, it appears that the positivity is starting to stablise. I think that has to be promising. The number of cases has stabilised too, and isn't still shooting up.

It looks like Salford is doing the same too.

That suggests that local restrictions are having some impact.

Manchester is interesting because it look like there was some levelling off before it went shooting up again. Is that students returning?

The trouble is, very little has changed lockdown-wise in Salford since 31st July. More recently there has been greater emphasis on mask wearing but lots still not doing it, or not doing it properly. I'm glad the positivity is stabilising in Bolton. Salford has seemed to be improving before and then it suddenly goes up again. I really don't know what is happening unless just not enough people are taking it seriously! Both Salford and Bolton have universities too although MMU and Manchester make up the biggest numbers. Salford students would be likely to go for nights out in Manchester, not sure about Bolton.

The surveillance reports also showed a very high number of cases within the BAME community and commented on this.

Previously it was reported people from the BAME community were higher risk.

Is there any data showing this is still the case with hospital admissions or something?

@RedToothBrush

More troubling are Liverpool , Knowsley and Bury.

These all didn't go into local lockdown until Tuesday 22nd. It is perhaps questionable why they didn't sooner on the basis of how the graphs show them all shooting up to 12% positivity - higher than Bolton.

Bury has been under the same lockdown rules as most of Greater Manchester since 31st July.

10th August, a week after the Eat out to Help out/spread the virus started. Where restaurants were absolutely heaving 3 days a week. I imagine that some people took huge advantage of the scheme and were eating out multiple times in multiple places, so I can totally believe that hospitality was a significant route of transmission in August.
Working in a restaurant, I couldn't understand the craziness of creating extreme demand, without allowing it to be spread out over the whole week.
I feel a bit like a lamb to the slaughter going to work. And it's going to become harder to keep the door open to help ventilation as the temperature drops.

There was another study which found that of sample of people going for tests, people who had eaten out in a restaurant the week before were 2x as likely to then test positive for Covid19

Of course a correlation but it fits with indoor transmission evidence so wise to make this a part of prevention strategies.

www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/09/11/912076989/adults-with-covid-19-twice-as-likely-to-have-eaten-at-restaurants-cdc-study?t=1601071781707

2 weeks prior sorry

‘ The study found that both positive and negative cases reported going to gyms, hair salons, shops and in-home group gatherings at about the same rate. But the positive cases were about twice as likely to report dining out at restaurants within the 14-day period before feeling sick.’

In the surveillance category the biggest group was "other" - but looked like workplaces to me.

I have eaten out a few times but not during eat out to help out as that was too crowded. I'd gone back to takeaways because it didnt feel safe to me, the staff get too close to you. I might reconsider that if staff are wearing masks properly.

I felt safe in EOTHO but we only ate as family group and we really only ate out in Scotland.

I would happily go to a restaurant now. In fact we had a lovely meal out last week when kids were at school!

Cases in Bouche du Rhone have been shocking, and now bars and restaurants forced to close ( to much uproar). The rate of incidence has been steadying and now starting to decline though with fairly light measures in place. 5th sept, bars to close at 12.30 then about 10 days ago a few more restrictions but fairly light ( no more than 10 people on beaches and parks, big events limited to 1000,). Whilst having some effect have not saved the area from the new resrictions. Will be interesting to see situation in a few weeks.

Forgot to say, probably the main changes put in place was more mask wearing, extended to outdoors in many towns. Testing has been fairy extensive, the water has been monitored but I can find any hard data only anecdotal- it is said to have lowered in Marseille, and quick saliva tests to be rolled out.

So yesterday the surveillance report with the updated watchlist of councils in England was published and for a while i have wanted to add the watchlist status to the www.covidmessenger.com daily update emails for each council.

I know lots of you receive the daily emails and I was wondering if you thought it was helpful addition? Or is it too much info? I very much want to keep the emails easy and accessible for everyone. I don't want anyone to feel overwhelmed with information.

I would appreciate any thoughts anyone might have.

I'm not sure @littleowl1, because it's so big now sadly. Maybe just a watch list status per area? However then it'll look odd for some London boroughs without context that all of London has been included, in the same way it did for Norfolk.

On another note, I also couldn't help but notice that a few councils went from not being on the list at all last week to the highest risk status which is a bit worrying, namely Blackpool and Wigan.

Anyway, I am off to scrub the kitchen floor - I hadn't quite finished building the watchlist status into the daily emails by pickup yesterday so I had to do some work on it after DD was home from school.

When I finished, I arrived in to the kitchen to find plaster-of-paris all over the kitchen floor after an independent craft session.

Tried to clean it up but still plaster-of-paris smears everywhere this morning

God give me patience......