Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 20

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 20 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
Modelling real number of infections February to date
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

Request to posters giving a link:
Please do so in full, so people can see in advance what they are clicking
Also at least a brief title so we know what the link is about

6874 apparently. So an increase, but a relatively small one (fingers crossed things might just conceivably be stabilising)

@herecomesthsun
I hope so
Testing continues to increase most day, latest figure is 245k

Just received a letter from NHS Test and Trace from our school, setting out criteria for isolation and testing. Hopefully if this is going out to all parents, it will clarify who should have a test and under what circumstances.

Locally, data from Covidmessenger, shows all my 5 local councils going falling. We were always low, but then had a small rise a week or so ago, now going down again.

@JustMary thank you.

Can someone check the map from the gov dashboard please? I don't think my area has been updated - there should be lots more blue areas or higher numbers - it just doesn't add up!

@Baaaahhhhh

Just received a letter from NHS Test and Trace from our school, setting out criteria for isolation and testing. Hopefully if this is going out to all parents, it will clarify who should have a test and under what circumstances.

Locally, data from Covidmessenger, shows all my 5 local councils going falling. We were always low, but then had a small rise a week or so ago, now going down again.

Exactly what we have had.

3 weeks ago went form average 7 cases a week to 18. Now down to 10/12. Regularly 1-4 cases a day but it's been like that for 2/3 weeks which makes it at least feel under control.

We also had the letter so it must be being circulated fairly widely.

Cases here also still low, 0 cases on 19th September (latest CM result) and 6.5 cases per 100,000 for the 7 days 13-19 September.

www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-covid-19-surveillance-reports
Updated

@WhyNotMe40 - each area is only shown if there are 3 or more cases and the date currently shown is 14th-20th Sept. Do either of those explain the discrepancy?

[quote MRex]@WhyNotMe40 - each area is only shown if there are 3 or more cases and the date currently shown is 14th-20th Sept. Do either of those explain the discrepancy?[/quote]
Hmm yes the boom in cases has been over the last few days so that would explain it.
Thanks

Those in London, the coronavirus cases and deaths pages here may be of interest: data.london.gov.uk/dataset.
Nothing new compared with other datasets (still no test positivity at borough level reported), but it brings together London data nicely with good age/sex and borough charts.

Nothing new compared with other datasets (still no test positivity at borough level reported), but it brings together London data nicely with good age/sex and borough charts

It also shows that the "peak sunday/Monday" calls for symptoms to 111 is driven by the over 70's group, so not the "back to work / back to school" supposition we'd theorised before?

Weekly PHE Surveillance Report

data from week 38 and partlyup to 22 September.
Cases increasing among the elderly ==> will be reflected soon in deaths

Seroprevalence: London 10.8%

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachmentdata/file/921561/WeeklyyCOVID19SurveillanceeReportweekk39FINAL.pdf

"North West and Yorkshire and Humber, with sharp rises noted in Merseyside and Tyneside.

By age group, cases rates remain highest in the 20-29 year olds.

Further increases in detections for week 38 are expected as more results for the most recent samples become available.

Positivity rates have increased further across most age groups
particularly in the 80+ year olds tested through Pillar 2
and those in the 20-29 years in Pillar 1.

Positivity by regions remains highest in the North.

At a local authority level, incidence remains highest in Bolton.

Case detections are limited by testing capacity,
therefore positivity rates provide a better indication of change in activity in some areas.

Lab test summaries:

Latest numbers for greater Manchester. Just getting worse.

There was an article on the bbc about how local lockdowns work and the stricter the more it works. But how is that the case if the figures in the NW keep going up despite greater Manchester being in local lockdown? Has the rise in Merseyside cancelled out a fall in Manchester?

Nothing new compared with other datasets (still no test positivity at borough level reported), but it brings together London data nicely with good age/sex and borough charts.

London has now been added to the "watch list" so this week's surveillance report actually includes positivity at the borough level. I have only quickly scanned through it and have not seen anything striking. The Pillar 2 positivity seems to be between 4 and 5%. Central boroughs (e.g. Camden, Kensington and Chelsea, etc) are closer to 3%.

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/921685/Contain_framework_lower_tier_local_authority_watchlist_-maps_by_Lower_Super_Output_Area-25_September_2020-_5_of_5.pdf

France, Spain, NL
All warning of worsening situation
Looks spread to the elderly
Current SD measures seem lax imo considering their crisis e.g. French Open goping ahead with 1k spectators

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/25/france-covid-cases-hit-record-high-as-anger-grows-over-restrictions

Paris
7-day incidence 217 / 100,000

the regional hospital authorities warned that 20% of surgical operations would have to be postponed from this weekend because hospitals were “approaching saturation” with coronavirus cases.

Madrid
14-day incidence 722 / 100,000

In an article published in the Lancet this week, a team of experts compared the lockdown exit strategies of nine different countries and
found that Spain, like the UK, had struggled to implement an effective “find, test, trace, isolate and support system” before lockdown restrictions were eased over the summer.

NL
PM:
"“The figures look downright terrible … In short, the situation is very worrisome and will force us to take extra measures,”

@Autumnleaves200

There was an article on the bbc about how local lockdowns work and the stricter the more it works. But how is that the case if the figures in the NW keep going up despite greater Manchester being in local lockdown? Has the rise in Merseyside cancelled out a fall in Manchester?

.... Compliance ? Other areas not in local lockdown ?

@Autumnleaves200

There was an article on the bbc about how local lockdowns work and the stricter the more it works. But how is that the case if the figures in the NW keep going up despite greater Manchester being in local lockdown? Has the rise in Merseyside cancelled out a fall in Manchester?

Lots of Greater Manchester has been in local lockdown since 31st July. It just isn't having enough effect!

Seroprevalence: London 10.8%

So in May, that was 17.5%
www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-covid-19-surveillance-reports/sero-surveillance-of-covid-19
So the decline is quite marked, it was using the 72% sensitive assay in May, has that changed, seems unlikely that they'd have moved to a less sensitive one?

The question obviously is if those people who have lost antibodies are being re-infected, or are likely to be re-infected.

Or of course they are actually two entirely different measures despite both supposedly being from blood donor data.

@wintertravel1980 - thank you, really useful to see. (Though not happy about why I'm seeing it obviously.)

Just looking through the PHE Contain Framework Lower Tier Local Authority Watchlist Maps.

First of all the data this week is smaller than last week. Theres a lot less areas that they have focused on, and that in itself I think is good news.

If you look at Bolton, it appears that the positivity is starting to stablise. I think that has to be promising. The number of cases has stabilised too, and isn't still shooting up.

It looks like Salford is doing the same too.

That suggests that local restrictions are having some impact.

Manchester is interesting because it look like there was some levelling off before it went shooting up again. Is that students returning?

More troubling are Liverpool , Knowsley and Bury.

These all didn't go into local lockdown until Tuesday 22nd. It is perhaps questionable why they didn't sooner on the basis of how the graphs show them all shooting up to 12% positivity - higher than Bolton.

Finally is South Tyneside. They went into local down on Fri 18th 4 days before Liverpool.

The positivity rate has gone up past 12% BUT right at the end there is a dip. Is that the start of a dip and restrictions starting to kick in? Hard to tell at this point, but it does give a bit of hope.

So I think there are reasons to be optimistic here. Liverpool I think still has some way to go before it tops out, which isn't good. We shall see next week if restrictions have made any difference at all.

Mixed bag, but I think these graphs are overall on balance better reading than last weeks.

Fingers crossed that the seeds of hope do produce what we hope.