Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 20

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 20 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
Modelling real number of infections February to date
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

Request to posters giving a link:
Please do so in full, so people can see in advance what they are clicking
Also at least a brief title so we know what the link is about

Leeds Councillors are saying they expect to be going into lockdown midnight tonight. I'm amazed it hasn't been already tbh

Last night the local MP said that he was expecting restrictions on Wednesday if not before. The numbers in and around the Hyde Park area are going up and up. Interestingly the numbers in the villages to the north/ne of the city, haven't gone up in the same way, they've stayed stable or decreased.

Sorry I should have been more specific. I mean the weekly national COVID surveillance reports, published here
www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-covid-19-surveillance-reports

If anyone knows what time the publish please let me know.

Indie SAGE currently have Michael Rosen on, asking about long Covid.

All modern developed industrialised countries have an economy based overwhelmingly on services,
including Scandi / Nordic countries

People sometimes complain that the UK has given up manufacturing while Germany is going strong

In fact, the UK - and the US - economy is ~ 10-11% manufacturing and 80% services
whereas Germany with ~ 24% manufacturing still has 70% services

So any developed country depends massively both on its own public feeling safe / confident enough to indulge in discretionary spending,
and - to a lesser extent - on its mostly similar customers in other countries delling confident to buy its exported goods & services.

Large numbers of deaths shatter confidence and hammer the economy, whether it is the govt shutting down, or the customers choosing
Govt restrictions have an effect while they last, but before and after this, the customer is king

[quote littleowl1]@littlestpogo

So glad you are finding my Covid Messenger daily updates for your local area helpful!

I'm adding watchlist status to the daily emails this weekend - a lot of councils were added last Friday.

I think that's probably a trend that will continue into winter. I think of the watchlist status is an indication of how "worried" Public Health England are about a council area. So I think it helps to know if your area has been added and at what level (PHE have three different risk tiers).

It's also reassuring to see that some councils were removed from teh watchlist last week too. Which I have found very reassuring. So things can turn around.

__
Get coronavirus case numbers in your local council area straight to your inbox every day. Sign up at www.covidmessenger.com[/quote]
My husband is yout number one fan now.

@littleowl1

Sorry I should have been more specific. I mean the weekly national COVID surveillance reports, published here www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-covid-19-surveillance-reports

If anyone knows what time the publish please let me know.

.... As with the dash, the time seems to vary

littleowl1 - they are often quite late. Last week they came out after 5pm.

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk

Today's R number range for UK =1.2-1.5
Daily growth rate range for UK =+4% to +8%
Every English region has positive growth

NW = +3 to +9%
London = +4 to +9%, so one to watch

"It is SAGE’s expert view, however, that this week’s estimates are reliable, and that
there is widespread growth of the epidemic across the country."

Zoe estimates - not PHE / SAGE - is that cases with symtoms have > doubled over the last week,
the 2nd sucessive wek:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2020/sep/25/coronavirus-uk-live-rishi-sunak-students-cases-covid-crisis-scotland-updates?page=with:block-5f6dcc648f088d8c714e8c5e#block-5f6dcc648f088d8c714e8c5e

"in the north-west where infections are estimated to have tripled over the past week from 12,544 to 36,316.

In the north-east and Yorkshire cases appear to have doubled to 27,731."

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/24/mps-move-to-require-vote-on-future-covid-restrictions

More than 40 cross-party MPs, including Labour’s Harriet Harman and Conservative Iain Duncan Smith,
are backing an amendment to force a vote in parliament on future Covid-19 restrictions
amid a brewing revolt among Tory backbenchers over extending emergency laws.

MPs are due to vote next week on a six-month renewal of the Coronavirus Act
< should be every 30 days, imo >

@BigChocFrenzy @Abraid2 @wintertravel1980 Thank you

From BBC live reporting:
www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-54291490

Demand for coronavirus tests in the UK has been high over the past few weeks and that’s led to delays in people getting tested and receiving their results back.

All this at a time when children were returning to school and young people to universities.

So which age groups were responsible for rising demand?

Between the start of August and start of September, the number of tests booked by the under-20s nearly doubled.

In England, figures from the government’s test and trace programme show that tests for young children have been in particularly high demand.

Since the start of September, more than 200,000 children under the age of nine have been tested – nearly three times as many as in the weeks before.

But only 1% received positive test results.

This compares to around 3.4% of 10-19 year olds, and people in their 20s and 30s, testing positive for the virus.

These numbers seem to support the suggestion that we need to review our criteria for testing younger children.

Looking at that PHE report the rate of increase in the north west has dropped - not massively but it's a start.

South East, South West and East of England should not be seeing the same restrictions as the rest of the country, that is economic damage that seems unnecessary.

Up to what age are only nostrils swabbed ?

I'd like to know the % of invalid tests for different age groups

@MRex that is absolutely incredible insight. Thank you.

I guess this kinda highlights that there is an element of "luck" in the structure of an economy and it's resilience to the pandemic as well as the actions and restrictions government's take.

Very hard to draw conclusions on the economic impact of differing government approaches when the underlying economies are so different.

I wish it was easy - as I would love to know. But it is just so darn hard to assess.

Scotland numbers today
558 no deaths
9.5% Testing positive
Testing way down from 1 Sept 12k yesterday under 5k

@cathyandclare

Leeds Councillors are saying they expect to be going into lockdown midnight tonight. I'm amazed it hasn't been already tbh

Last night the local MP said that he was expecting restrictions on Wednesday if not before. The numbers in and around the Hyde Park area are going up and up. Interestingly the numbers in the villages to the north/ne of the city, haven't gone up in the same way, they've stayed stable or decreased.

Hardly surprising. Thats the student district.

R rates are calculated from poat data, so don't represent current values:

www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2020/sep/25/coronavirus-uk-live-rishi-sunak-students-cases-covid-crisis-scotland-updates

Dr Deepti Gurdasani, a clinical epidemiologist at Queen Mary, University of London, has put the government’s updated R and infection growth rate into context, highlighting that the actual growth rates are likely to be higher.

"Estimates of R are derived from data on hospitalisations and deaths, as case numbers can be dependent on testing capacity, and are therefore less reliable.

Because of this, as stated on the government website, these reported estimates represent the R values from 2-3 weeks ago due to the time delay between someone being infected, having symptoms and needing healthcare.

Estimates from daily cases are currently not reliable due to testing capacities having been reached, and lack of availability of widespread testing.

However, if the cases are doubling every week, as suggested by the government, this would suggest that the current value of R is higher than these estimates.

We would expect the current growth rate to be reflected in estimates of R calculated from hospitalisation and death data 2-3 weeks from now."

R rates are calculated from past data, so don't represent current values:

When I took my 10 year old, I was told it was up to me, so 10 must be a grey area. Although I was advised to try and get a throat swab as they are more accurate. And they didn’t give us the information booklet about how to swab children!

The low % in under 10s could be to do with the fact they are more likely to get Covid-like symptoms in general. For example, younger children are more likely to have a temperature when they get ill with anything. And probably more likely to have general back to school illnesses with temperatures and coughs than older children and adults. That’s anecdotal I’m afraid.

For example, younger children are more likely to have a temperature when they get ill with anything

Certainly true of my two, until the age of about 5 with the eldest and the little one is still only 3.

My understanding is that with sars-cov-2 littler children are actually more likely to be asymptomatic so that combined with the fact they are more likely to get fevers with non-coronavirus illness, means it isn't surprising there's a low positivity for this age group.

Also, some of the symptoms children exhibit with covid, if they exhibit any at all, such as gastrointestinal symptoms, are not picked up at the moment by testing.

Thanks MRex for the rational discussion of Sweden v other countries.

Our government need to wake up to the risks involved in globalisation and in particular the need to ensure supplies of food and medicine. I have no faith at all in our incompetent government. It's annoying that while I'm willing to spend to help the economy my choices are heavily constrained if I dont wish to buy from China through Amazon!

Tonsillitis / ear infections with DS inevitably mean DS will be sick.

When he was younger he was often sick with a temperature. Strangely though its been rare for him to ever have a stomach bug (touch wood) so actually gastrointestinal symptoms would probably concern me the most as he seems to now fight colds easily now without spiling a temperature. Completely different from a few years ago when he had a temp weekly.

For the ONS test all my children do back of the throat and then both nostrils. When we took them to be tested due to symptoms we were told nostrils only. All under 10.

@Coquohvan

Scotland numbers today 558 no deaths 9.5% Testing positive Testing way down from 1 Sept 12k yesterday under 5k

This message is on the gov website regarding Scotland deaths.

Due to a power outage at National Records of Scotland we have not been able to update the deaths figures for Scotland.

Today's deaths figure does not include Scotland.