[quote littleowl1]**@MarshaBradyo* and @BigChocFrenzy*
That chart is brilliant.
I must admit I haven't been following the international picture the last few weeks with the same granularity as the domestic outlook but I did see a very interesting interview with the Swedish Health Minister earlier this week.
He made a really interesting point but whether it was just a "cheap" soundbite or has real substance will remain to be seen.
Sweden is often compared to its neighbour's Finland, Norway etc who had much stricter approaches to the outbreak than Sweden and have had much, much lower death rates.
His point was that now that lockdown in Sweden's neighbours are lifting, they are seeing a much more rapid increase in cases than Sweden - Sweden's case rate is fairly stable.
He was implying that in 6-9 months time the cumulative death rate in Sweden's neighbours will likely be similar as they are at higher risk of major outbreaks as lockdowns lift. He felt Swede's had learnt how to live in a reasonably safe way and a degree of immunity had been built in to society which resulted in a less liklihood of major, sudden increase in cases.
Now I haven't looked at the figures and I know these soundbites can be a load of nonsense. And I'm not agreeing or disagreeing with what he said.
But I did think it was interesting.
You can kind of imagine the charts in 9 months time side by side - Sweden with one long, relatively flat bell curve and its neighbours with peaks-and-troughs-and-peaks-and-troughs and the inevitable disruption to society/economy that causes.
Now, I have no idea if he is right. It just caught my attention. It was an interesting hypothesis, I thought.
On another note - and maybe it is answered earlier on the thread (apologies if so) - but I am pretty surprised that Sweden's neighbours had such little economic impact given they had fairly strict lockdowns (I think?). Any idea how they achieved that?
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What the end comparison is between Sweden and its neighbours would best be done after next spring,
but imo
the 6 months knowledged gained of the former "Novel" virus will be crucial:
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The 2nd wave is likely to be much less for countries than the 1st wave, because of the knowledge of targeted measures that work to reduce case & infection spread, hence deaths
E.g. in the UK, mainstream prediction is days of max 200 deaths vs the 22 consecutive days of > 1,000 deaths in March-April
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Sweden still looks far from herd immunity - especially because of the 20-25% "overwhoot" we have discussed when achieved by infections rather than a vaccine
It's cases may be low atm, but they are still higher / million than e.g. Germany
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By the end of winter, quite a bit of Sweden's existing immunity may have woen off
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Improved treatments like O2, the 2 steroids and other meds have reduced the death rate, probably 30%+
Conclusion:
MUCH better to reduce any 1st wave as much as possible, in a virus that does not mutate in a clinical sense
(e.g. not like the 2018 flu with its bigger 2nd wave)
COuntries are much better able to reduce a 2nd wave