Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 20

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 20 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
Modelling real number of infections February to date
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

Request to posters giving a link:
Please do so in full, so people can see in advance what they are clicking
Also at least a brief title so we know what the link is about

Italy have also had a more cautious return to school. Our return as normal has been detrimental not just because of massive bubbles with no SD but because of how people interpret this. Loads of threads on here saying may as well do - insert risky behavior - as my DC is mixing with 300+ people for six hours, 7 days a week. If schools return had been more cautious then so would peoples behavior.

The type 1 interferon stuff is very interesting and would make sense among some populations who have had fewer / more deaths.

As with genes associated with surviving the Black Death in Europe.

@Morfin

Italy have also had a more cautious return to school. Our return as normal has been detrimental not just because of massive bubbles with no SD but because of how people interpret this. Loads of threads on here saying may as well do - insert risky behavior - as my DC is mixing with 300+ people for six hours, 7 days a week. If schools return had been more cautious then so would peoples behavior.

Absolutely.

I'm a teacher and have found myself thinking this.

Interestingly, the introduced local restrictions in the NE have mentally over ruled that attitude in me; we don't have rule of six, it's zero mingling. Apparently advisory but police have been seen out and about and no one knows what's what anymore!

I was a bit annoyed at first but we've adapted. I've had the odd snatched masked distanced chat outside school but that's it. Can't speak for others though...!

I do not think Italian success can simply be attributed to "better compliance with rules".

I spent the last week of August on holidays in the south of Italy in an area with low prevalence. I have not noticed significant differences in the level of compliance between the two countries. Yes, more people wear masks in the street but we all know that masks outside make very little difference (if any).

Whenever we had meal indoors, no-one asked for our details. People in general did seem to be careful but I still remember an episode when two older Italian ladies (probably, friends) saw each other in the street, stopped, removed their masks, hugged, kissed, put their masks back on and started chatting. It is human nature - people cannot avoid physical contact even when they try their best to follow the rules.

The difference must be in targeted testing. I am still convinced that we are wasting thousands of tests by testing children with coughs. According to Zoe data, while cough is indeed one of the main symptoms of COVID for adults, it is not for children. We need to be smarter in identifying the "at risk" groups and prioritising them for testing.

On the Italy point I am more interested in the difference between Spain and France and Italy than the U.K.

I appreciate the general attitude that the U.K. isn’t complying school return here is different etc. But take Spain

• very strict initial lockdown
• high compliance with mask wearing including for all children in school 6 plus

Yet very high numbers and positivity rate now. What is Italy doing different to them?

Masks do make a difference outside, where keeping distance is not possible

Outside events, when allowed in Germany, e.g. (reduced) audiences at football matches
require masks

No scientists here would forget how outdoor carnivals in early March became the epicentres of mass infection

@Qasd

On the Italy point I am more interested in the difference between Spain and France and Italy than the U.K.

I appreciate the general attitude that the U.K. isn’t complying school return here is different etc. But take Spain

• very strict initial lockdown
• high compliance with mask wearing including for all children in school 6 plus

Yet very high numbers and positivity rate now. What is Italy doing different to them?

..... Points from FT article up thread:

More gradual reopening of restaurants, clubs etc

Closing down clubs etc in August as soon as infections started rising again

Likely better track & trace systems, hence missing fewer infections
and hence also better able to target testing

and greater emphasis on WFH when possible

@BigChocFrenzy

Masks do make a difference outside, where keeping distance is not possible

Outside events, when allowed in Germany, e.g. (reduced) audiences at football matches
require masks

No scientists here would forget how outdoor carnivals in early March became the epicentres of mass infection

.... There have been studies in Germany on areas which made face masks compulsory everywhere outdoors, during height of epidemic e.g. city of Jena

They showed significant reduction in cases compared to neighbouring regions which did not have these rules

I want to know how many UK clusters have been started by returning holiday makers.

How many Brits have travelled abroad compared to italians?

Whilst its clearly not the only issue here, I think quite a few clusters would have been imported (or possibly exported and reimported).

And that is where it gets seeded throughout the UK.

Peoples actions though and incompetent people in charge in UK mean that it is a much bigger problem.

As an aside, I am really unhappy about the treatment of uni students in Scotland.

Yes we need to stop the virus spreading but at what cost.

This would not be even considered acceptable for any other demographic.

I don't get the furore about Scotland and students. Seems sensible to me that they should be asked to curb their socialising for a while to restrict transmission. They generally live with others so will not be alone. I understand that there will be exceptions and some vulnerable to mh issues but most will be fine. My ds is at Edinburgh and he's fine with staying in.

Is it today that the new R rate estimate is published? Anyone know what time?

@Timeforanotherusername

I want to know how many UK clusters have been started by returning holiday makers.

How many Brits have travelled abroad compared to italians?

Whilst its clearly not the only issue here, I think quite a few clusters would have been imported (or possibly exported and reimported).

And that is where it gets seeded throughout the UK.

Peoples actions though and incompetent people in charge in UK mean that it is a much bigger problem.

As an aside, I am really unhappy about the treatment of uni students in Scotland.

Yes we need to stop the virus spreading but at what cost.

This would not be even considered acceptable for any other demographic.

.... Well, Germany’s track & trace enabled weekly reports on this to be published

It’s a lot and the RKI for several weeks was saying returning holidaymakers were causing lots of little clusters, which was causing total cases to rise
It was the additional new big driver which created the 2nd wave here

Similar factors apply for the UK, but looks like t&t is not up to providing the evidence

However, we know millions returned to the UK from Spain, France etc so the public health deductions based on the known creation of lots of tiny clusters, seems logical

I don't get that if unis are doing their online courses why have the kids onsite at all? They can socialize (and get drunk*) at a later date when it's safe. And they save loads of money on rent.

*be honest: we all did that, it was part of being at uni :)

Other countries' public health authorities reporting similar conclusions

@HoldingTight

I don't think it's the fact that many will. I think it's more that saying "you can't go back" will potentially effect students MH. If they'd said before they started "we will ask students not to return home during term time" they could make an informed decision whether to go or defer. By announcing it now, I don't think it actually will effect many (what proportion go home weekly? ) but it may effect the way they feel about staying.

I feel for the students isolating, it is exactly as those in care homes had to live and look as though they will need to again. Confined to rooms, no family, little or no time out doors. Hopefully it will be for weeks not months. Entirely foreseeable though and I imagine most families have discussed potential issues with Christmas socialising.

@TheSunIsStillShining

Many students will already have paid or committed for accommodation for the year anyway, so they won't save on money.

But it's more than having lectures and tutorials. It's the peer support that can be so valuable. We used to have a group of us that met the evening before the tutorial and we talked through the questions. Often that was as helpful as a tutorial.

It would appear logical that returning holiday makers combined with the UK’s issues with track and trace contributed at least some to the rising numbers.

I’ve been getting little owls very helpful numbers for my borough and those around it. Last week the numbers suddenly dropped a lot from what had been a very steady increase ( we’d been up to 30/1000k). This week I’ve noticed they are jumping back up again ( although not yet at the same level). It looks very much like the testing problems having an impact ( I’m in London where I know the mayor was going on about issues with testing but assume this was not London alone). Does make you think how many infections must have been missed in that week and a half ( and presumably the effects are still filtering through - so the cumulative numbers still reflect the drop atm).

I feel really sad for university students too. It couldn’t be more different to our experience back then, if we went. It was the most sociable (yes plus drunk) times but also so much sharing of ideas in groups. Endless fun and knowledge.

I just hope it passes sooner than later so it’s not too many terms like this.

@BigChocFrenzy

Countries that have done well for both deaths & reduced economy damage are in top left of chart:

This chart is a doozy. Really hits home for me.

I just hope that vaccine is in circulation and working soonish

FT: Thousands of UK students isolate as university cases rise

https://www.ft.com/content/6a35914c-b1d1-48fb-bfc0-f7e2c2e3c229

Scottish students could be only 16. If your Highers are good enough you can leave school after 5th year so would be Year 11 in England.

Very very young to be cut off from their families.

Although i don't know who many would stay in halls at that age. But many 1st years will not yet be 18 even if they completed 6th year at school.

Its also the fact that they have been told not to go to pubs this weekend. They should be able to (as long as they are not self isolating) as long as they follow the rules.

Yes, unless their bit of the Uni has cases, I'd have expected they would be allowed to go to pubs, clubs, gym, sports teams etc unless these are closed in their area
as well as walks, runs ....

@littlestpogo

So glad you are finding my Covid Messenger daily updates for your local area helpful!

I'm adding watchlist status to the daily emails this weekend - a lot of councils were added last Friday.

I think that's probably a trend that will continue into winter. I think of the watchlist status is an indication of how "worried" Public Health England are about a council area. So I think it helps to know if your area has been added and at what level (PHE have three different risk tiers).

It's also reassuring to see that some councils were removed from teh watchlist last week too. Which I have found very reassuring. So things can turn around.

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