Anyone Changed Their Mind?

[ClimbDad]

As the second wave approaches and hospitals and ICUs start to fill up again, have any of those who spent the summer saying the pandemic was over changed their minds? If so, what caused that change? If not, why do you still believe this is nothing to worry about?

@repeatswan pretty sure the death tally isn't up to 65k, and also, lets not pretend that the counting is anything close to accurate.

People who tested positive then died in car accidents are counted on there...take everything reported with a pinch of salt.

Unfortunately people die every single day, but this is never reported so people think the number of covid deaths are excessive.

Today 08:07 NewStart2020MyArse

@ClimbDad by the way this increase in cases has nothing to do with schools. So basically you were wrong.

Surely no one is so stupid as to believe that schools haven’t worsened everything and will continue to stop other circuit break measures working effectively. All those teenagers together every day

@Lazypuppy

Cases may be going up, deaths are still very low...i'm not sure what the panic is about if i'm honest

The gov told us the first lockdown was to protect the NHS, NHS is fine, plenty of capacity and Nightingale hospitals ready to go, so why would we have another lockdown...

NHS is not fine

NHS doesn't have capacity - it's full of sick people who will have to leave to make room for covid

Nightingales have to be staffed by current NHS workforce. There isn't enough staff to open them. Not unless joe public want to have a go at being a nurse....usually it takes 3 years though.

I’ve not changed my mind. It’s not over and probably won’t be for a long time unless current strategy changes.

Vaccine: lots of positive noises but we have never created a successful one for a Coronavirus. So don’t hang your hat on it.

Treatment: yep, possible, but will clearly take time, do we really have that time?

Track & trace: hahaha.

Lockdowns: not enough compliance in UK, strict ones quite possibly don’t work anyway, just delaying the inevitable whilst trashing the economy, see Spain.

Sweden: Yep, for me, Sweden with some intermittent braking (light touch lockdown measures) is probably the way to go. Put it this way, on the Imperial College doomsday prediction, Sweden would have comparatively lost between 40-85,000 lives. Despite a cock-up in their care homes, they are below 6,000.

How many people actually died in a car accident with Covid?

Also, on the other side of the argument, how many heart attack, stroke, pneumonia, and summer flu deaths were actually undiagnosed Covid?

We have the indisputable fact of our very high excess death rate.

our government is so inept
Unfortunately you're right. We have world beating incompetence when it comes to our handling of the pandemic. I'd like to think lessons will be learned. Fast. I'll keep on hoping but won't be shocked if nothing changes for the better.

[quote Lazypuppy]@repeatswan pretty sure the death tally isn't up to 65k, and also, lets not pretend that the counting is anything close to accurate.

People who tested positive then died in car accidents are counted on there...take everything reported with a pinch of salt.

Unfortunately people die every single day, but this is never reported so people think the number of covid deaths are excessive.[/quote]
There are >65k excess deaths: medicalxpress.com/news/2020-06-excess-deaths-uk-figures.html

I do understand the numbers of covid deaths vs other deaths, that's how I know the UK's covid death toll was very bad, especially in comparison to other countries.

@LaurieFairyCake

Yes, its about to go almost the same as before

We'd be utterly idiotic as a species to fail to notice it's the same as 6 months ago

I'm sort of wondering if all those Covid deniers from 6 months ago wised up

If they will wise up again this time as they all fucking disappeared in June

And if we then get to next March and start a fucking third wave are we STILL going to get people saying 'there won't be a third wave/only 40,000 died the second wave so its bound to be weaker'

Honestly, it's GOING TO BE LIKE GROUNDHOG DAY until there's a vaccine or we've frankly killed off the vulnerable through our own numptiness

Brilliant post!! I’m going to use that last line as a quote from now on!

@MummyPop00
Re Sweden. Do you think it's realistic to very quickly get 50% of the population into single households? To get the NHS up to the standards of the well-funded Swedish healthcare system? Get the British public to unofficially semi lockdown by choice?

And, if you're a fan of the Scandi approach to Covid, would you not prefer the more economically successful measures taken by Sweden's neighbours?

we've...killed off the vulnerable
The problem is lots of people don't care if we do. The vulnerable are Other People.

They'll only support preventative action if and when they realise that they too are at risk - which they are because of the economic damage and Long Covid.

The problem for all of us is that things will already be pretty dire by the time the penny drops.

@SheepandCow

Hey, no solution isn’t fraught with problems.

No, can’t shift the demographics in the UK overnight. We are semi unofficially locking down. Plenty of people haven’t dropped their guard no matter what the government is saying. Plenty of others have if course so yeah, it’s a mixed bag.

Regarding the economics, Sweden is not an economic unilateralist. If it’s trading partners get burned, so does Sweden. Last time I looked JP Morgan had both Sweden & Norway 4% down at years end.

I wouldn't complain if it was somehow possible to be more like Sweden!
More spaced out population and a better healthcare system sounds good to me. I hope this pandemic encourages people to see changing the NHS doesn't have to mean following the US model.

things are already pretty dire given we are approaching a winter of coronavirus and a no deal Brexit led by an incompetent set of men with those who could do better too scared to try now

SheepandCow its interesting you notice the differences between us and Sweden (rightly) but insist we can follow the AUstralia model (we cant too different again).

Its going to be like Groundhog Day until both sides accept that this is going anywhere and we need to find our own version of being able to deal with this.

Though where is @ClimbDad he seems to have disappeared from his own thread. Perhaps unsure as to what his own mind is? One suspects it all hit the fan far too soon for him - schools are merely now seeing the effects not causing (and that is not to say they arent adding to the problem they of course are but they havent caused this)

I swear @ClimbDad, you’d be actually happier choking out “I told you so” as they sedated you to put you on a ventilator than you would be if there was a vaccine announced. Why are you enjoying this so much? What’s wrong with you?

The difference between Sweden and Australia is we can't overnight change how millions are housed, nor can we suddenly bring the NHS up to the same level as the Swedish healthcare system (which has been well-funded and run for years).

But like Australia we are an island, which means borders can be easily restricted. And no I don't mean no food coming in. Freight and emergency travel including asylum being the only travel makes containing any spread easier to do. With proper quarantine where necessary. We would have to go through a couple of months strict lockdown to get numbers down (and keep the border restrictions going after easing lockdown) but that might be worth doing to avoid being stuck in this same situation several months on.

The vaccines are very likely almost ready but the issue is how quickly we can organise mass production and distribution. That might not be possible until this time next year.

I don't think the countries should lock-down either.
There is a middle ground some people don't give a shit.
I think people need to stop gathering in large crowds at parties, protests, bars etc.
We all need too get on with it while maintaining social distance wearing masks if possible and be conscious to how we could catch and pass it on to others.
I will be doing as I do while taking care not to catch or spread it to another.

@SheepandCow there may have been a time our Island status would have helped (and I say maybe given the fact that the first death in the UK from Coronavirus is now January I suspect there never was). But we arent the same as Australia. In this the only real thing we have in common is that we are all one Island. They have much better regional responses than we do

Shutting down the borders now is a bit like closing the gate once the horse has bolted. Its too widespread now. Elimination is next to impossible I think and we need solutions that enable us to deal with it.

Lockdown isnt that. Lockdown just punts the problem forward it time (pretty much like Marchs lockdown has done). And the downsides of lockdown to the economy are at the point where it would be more detrimental to do so than to not.

We need the middle ground that Sweden found for themselves because that is the way out.

"We need the middle ground that Sweden found for themselves because that is the way out."

Will never work here. We have too many people that go on benders when they should be isolating, go on an annual piss up trip while waiting on test results " because that's what we do every year", think covid is bollocks, have a party in the garden because since when are we east Germany or have decided that it is best that the virus is spread was widely as possible as quickly as possible and the vulnerable should cower in fear in their houses if they want. Anyone who says different is a " dementor"

It's more realistic and achievable to close the borders (excepting essential travel) than it is to overnight have the same housing and healthcare setup as Sweden. Land borders make border restrictions more difficult for many countries. Islands, like us, have an advantage.

We can't repair the damage already done, no, but we can certainly prevent it getting even worse. This won't be over by Christmas. We have a choice. Strict measures now so we can start a return to normality and economic recovery by the New Year, or this dragged out, half lockdown, in out, in and out situation for another year. Which would be economically disastrous.

Two-three months strict lockdown WITH border restrictions that continue AFTER lockdown eases would get us to a position where we could contain the spread. Which means we could begin our recovery. Hospitals, schools, offices, shops, pubs, restaurants, gyms, etc.

Why do so many posters confuse the belief there will be a second wave with wanting there to be one, or being pleased if there is?
It’s utter nonsense and makes them look pretty stupid.

@TheGreatWave

Just because they're old doesn't make them disposable.

And neither was my friend because she was not dying of covid. Except she was because it wasn't covid. Why was her life worth less when she was actually dying than a theoretical risk to an 80 year old?

Although I am sorry for your loss in losing a good friend, if she was that ill, she was very likely to have died anyway.

My mum (age 80+) and many of her octogenarian friends are not dying. But COVID does not - with all of the data and stats over the last 6 months - represent a theoretical risk. It is pretty clear that if that age group contract COVID they are likely to die.

As a family we have complied with all the restrictions. Whereas others have chosen to not. I work in a school - we are back physically in the building with x thousand students. My risk of transferring COVID to my mum has just increased exponentially, which means how I support her has changed. Our students needed to be back in education. So that's what we do. But nobody is prepared to discuss how we get the elderly back into their normal routine. Or are they disposable, so a normal routine doesnt matter? I do my bit, so your children can be back in education. What will you do so my mum gets her normal back?

@walksen and @SheepandCow yes I know which is why we need to find our own version of the middle ground.

Except we cant or wont because we are both too entrenched in the idea of opposing views and we have an incompetent Gvt

Two-three months strict lockdown WITH border restrictions that continue AFTER lockdown eases would get us to a position where we could contain the spread

its too late for this. The public wont do it and we dont have the money to survive it.

And that very helpfully puts us at a no deal Brexit

@cardibach

Why do so many posters confuse the belief there will be a second wave with wanting there to be one, or being pleased if there is? It’s utter nonsense and makes them look pretty stupid.

Bit like those who if someone criticises the Government start going on about how they’re better than Labour, total failure to recognise shades of grey and can only recognise absolutes it seems.

@cardibach

Why do so many posters confuse the belief there will be a second wave with wanting there to be one, or being pleased if there is? It’s utter nonsense and makes them look pretty stupid.

It’s not the belief in a second wave, it’s the gloating. And if you can’t see that the OP of this thread was gloating, you look pretty stupid.

It was obvious that there would be an increase in cases once lockdown measures were relaxed. Looks pretty smug and self-satisfied to start a thread saying basically, told you so!

Why is it too late?

It's false economy not to do it.
If we don't have the money for a temporary lockdown, we're in very serious trouble because we definitely don't have the money for the consequences of failing to contain the spread.

We've spent what 30bn on furlough.

We spent 120bn on bailing banks out and were committed to another 300bn. Not like our credit rating is likely to suffer when all other lenders are in the same boat.

I'm not sure what the cost would be of shutting the borders but it might be significantly more and a bit pointless since we probably have little chance now of eliminating covid even with the borders closed.