Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 19

[BigChocFrenzy]

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 19

Welcome to thread 19 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Welcome to thread 18 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
Modelling real number of infections February to date
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists each Thursday
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data test positivity etc, DIY graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

Cracking picture here

Where that from @HoldingTight. Looks like CW is being very firm with them.

That is a great shot

HoldingTight Matt Hancock looks horrified.

Utterly brilliant shot , where's it from!

Is that a genuine pic??

There's a grouse hunter there, explains a lot.....

@Oldbagface

Where that from *@HoldingTight*. Looks like CW is being very firm with them.

It's from Peston's Spectator article, which I can't even be bothered to read. There's so much nonsense about - like people believing that the chart up thread indicates falling cases rather than the lag in testing results. The science of this virus has not changed; the direction of travel is obvious. I suppose we clutch at straws to help our mental health but isn't it time to get real?www.spectator.co.uk/article/with-scientists-divided-it-s-time-for-politicians-to-decide

From the graphs on gov dashboard it looks like we are seeing massive increase in testing too?

So could this account for daily rise in cases and also is the daily rise actually likely to be higher because so many actually can't get tests?

BwanaMakubwa no, like you we were told we would only know if we were positive. However they did say they were working on a text message service, and also that if I needed to know (because I had symptoms and was self-isolating) my GP would be able to find out. Haven't needed to test that yet!

www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/sep/18/coronavirus-live-news-global-cases-on-brink-of-30m-as-france-reports-record-new-infections?page=with:block-5f650d788f083ee3ac1f2360#block-5f650d788f083ee3ac1f2360

Eton used a private provider to test all pupils before / on arrival to school, costs paid by the school

Can't blame them for doing that, but obviously not feasible for state schools.
"80% of schools in England have pupils stuck at home waiting for a test."

Yes, Hancock mentioned that we are starting to see new outbreaks in care homes. According to the week 38 surveillance report, "there were 228 care home outbreaks with at least one linked case that tested positive for SARS-CoV-2". It is quite high - the number of outbreaks was 43 2 weeks ago (week 36).

Here is a tweet and chart from Christina Pavel (quoted in the Mirror) :

Fitting an exponential growth curve with 8-day doubling to admissions from 4 September is v worrying - we'll be at 18th March admission numbers by next weekend and lockdown admission numbers by early October. Hopefully recent restrictions & hot weather has slowed spread...

mobile.twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1307039314803658752

Looking at the chart there were (according to her) approximately 400 admissions on 18 March, so that number seems possible by next weekend or a bit later. However there were approximately 1100 admissions on 23 March, so without the huge volume of cases and the high number of cases amongst older people that there were in March it doesn't necessarily follow that admissions will reach 1100 per day by early October. In fact I would say it's highly unlikely , as there are far fewer cases now and of those cases most are still concentrated amongst younger people (as can be seen from heat map data visualizations of current and recent cases by age).

Christina Pagel - damn you auto carrot 🥕

Also, 194 admissions figure yesterday, 183 today, so while 1 day won't tell you the trend, at least it's a fall not a rise.
coronavirus.data.gov.uk/healthcare?areaType=nation&areaName=England

Can someone help me understand / unpack the current argument I am seeing proposed by lockdown sceptics that the current positive tests in the UK are 91% false positives, and therefore people should ignore them. For example on this Twitter thread: twitter.com/JuliaHB1/status/1306916494773755910?s=20
Thanks

@Bifflepants who is she? Twitter is mind boggling to me at the best of times. I'm too tired to get my head round stuff like this but BCF will no doubt be able to explain. It sounds like a way to manipulate the stats to deny there's an issue but that's my pessimism showing.

Not me @Bifflepants. Have just read the extract from wiki that she posts and it didn't help me at all! Am sure someone on here will be able to help though.....

Googling her she seems to be a dreadful journalist.....
I'm sure she's wrong but I can't explain why!

@Bifflepants - a statistically common error doesn't statistically magically increase, increased positivity means cases are rising. There are differences in accuracy between different tests and some are thought to give higher or lower false positives; dual testing with different test types reduces the number of false positives significantly.

UK false positives are thought to be under 1% by the way, she's got confused with the spit tests I think.

It’s bad, isn’t it? I am struggling to find any straws to clutch on to.

Today they’ve impoSsed several rules in Madrid. Their best place is 350 cases /100k and worse is 1500/100k. The ones over 1k have had new measurements taken as of Monday.

I was checking this and if I’m right Bolton is one of the current worse places with 190 cases per 100k in one week so more or less 400 in 2.

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-51768274

Spain is much ahead than the uk by a few weeks (id say month and a half) but they’re taking rules more slower than here (not quarantining anyone coming from abroad) everyone back to the office.
Even if the masks are compulsory everywhere and schools ... seems like the virus is acting in family get togethers and mainly care homes (I’ve read about a few places already having problems)
Id not understand with the current numbers and the info you’ve provided in this thread that a second lockdown was imposed nationwide. Where I’m we currently habs around 22 cases per 2 weeks.

It's not just her though, she's an example. A friend I have with a science based PhD and good knowledge of stats is arguing the same on SM, and although I know instinctively it's a dangerous argument when positivity is rising, I just don't know how to counter argument effectively.

About lockdown I mean a nationwide one in the uk btw

Christina Pagel also in that twitter thread talks about the emergency plan put forward by Indie Sage today.

Link here www.independentsage.org/measures-to-avoid-a-national-lockdown-an-emergency-ten-point-plan/

Cut and paste of immediate measures below:
IMMEDIATE MEASURES (to be reviewed, as appropriate, when testing is functional and infections are back under control)

1. Close indoor service in pubs and restaurants
2. Work or study at home if possible. If impossible; don’t return to the

workplace/University/College until certified COVID safe and provide financial support to employees in the interim

1. Limit indoor social interaction to a bubble of three households
2. Fund schools to allow smaller socially distanced classes and provide digital resources for all students and teachers, should they have to study and work at home
3. Create an emergency fund to support all those needing to shield or self-isolate (including those unable to get tested and their contacts)
4. Re-establish the 2 metre distance rule

All sounds sensible to me. Until they do 4, 2 will mean teachers can't be in school, unless masks are implemented. A lot of them, particularly ECV, shouldn't be now.

The only thing I think they've missed is masks. The head of CDC has said face coverings may provide better protection than a vaccine. Why the UK is so behind on mask wearing I don't understand. So many children world wide wearing masks in schools no problem. If schools can't SD surely masks is better than nothing ?

www.cnbc.com/2020/09/16/cdc-director-says-face-masks-may-provide-more-protection-than-coronavirus-vaccine-.html
"We have clear scientific evidence they work, and they are our best defense,” CDC Director Dr. Robert Redfield said