Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 19

[BigChocFrenzy]

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 19

Welcome to thread 19 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Welcome to thread 18 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
Modelling real number of infections February to date
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists each Thursday
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data test positivity etc, DIY graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

It is about risk reduction, not risk elimination

One of the biggest issues regarding schools, is that our class sizes are so much bigger than other countries.

My eldest attends a special school setting. Whilst he does has issues with changes to routine, he did settle into homelearning no issues at all. In fact he made massive improvements.
I do know how lucky I am in that though, especially as he doesn't have any behaviour issues. No social services involvement here & none needed. I would hope it hasn't reached the point where schools are stating SS involvement is needed for children who don't attend - especially as figures continue to rise.

Agree with all you said @herecomesthsun

imo, the system in Germany is a reasonable compromise:

Students with a medical certificate of ECV can stay home, or also if a resident family member has one
So can staff with a medical certificate, who can teach them

Yes, that's only about 3% of staff, so can take quite some organising, shifting around staff online to get the necessary subject teachers for all the various children at home
so not ideal,
but the kids are safer and being taught, even if sometimes by a few different subject teachers to the ones they know

I gather that sometimes the classroom lessons are simultaneously shown online

I'm sure it may have been asked previously BCF but what is the average class room size in regards pupils?

Also of course, staff and kids temporarily isolating join the online study groups

Thanks @boys3. The suspense will surely be worth it in the end.

@NeurotrashWarrior - if you feel it would significantly impact the children, then is it worth doing a petition and / or MP question to HoC? A quick Google suggests there's roughly 200k children in SEN schools, even double the number for staff = 400k. That's a lot of tests, but if it's about priority only then that should surely be easy enough.

Can I ask. Will today's measures actually bring the infection rate down?
Also, is BJ likely to add any further measures tonight when he addresses the nation?

@Oldbagface

Can I ask. Will today's measures actually bring the infection rate down? Also, is BJ likely to add any further measures tonight when he addresses the nation?

Honestly i think the best we can hope for is a slowing rather than a decline in cases.

The R is too high with schools open for it to drop.

@Derbygerbil be very careful of Henaghan - he has already written an article promoting anti masks, totally ignoring the masses of recent evidence, even though only a few years previously he wrote an article saying that ‘hand washing, social distancing and masks’ had strong evidence instead of relying on vaccines. He is also not a public health specialist.

No one scientifically is arguing for herd immunity as a strategy. Because it is not a strategy. It is what happens without a strategy (after millions of deaths).

Some pupils are safer in schools. Other pupils are clinically vulnerable or their families are clinically vulnerable. Those pupils may reasonably feel that their best interests are served in staying home while there is a pandemic raging exponentially, as they would rather not risk either being ill or being bereaved of a parent. Especially if a reasonable education could be delivered at home by said parents, and there are no exams or transition years looming. I would suggest that most pupils are not in the situation of needing oversight from social services.

Great post. Agree 100%. The 'send them in or fines' approach is awful. And even for those kids who do need to be in school, they're not going to be - infections with covid like symptoms (as well as covid) are raging in schools and people can't get tests so lots of kids are in one week and off isolating the next until a negative test received (7 days from trying to get a test to result for me).

Also BigChoc your posts make me want to live in Germany. It sounds so much better than here.

@Shitfuckoh

I'm sure it may have been asked previously BCF but what is the average class room size in regards pupils?

... There are ~ 11 million students and 700,000 teachers, 40,000 schools

OECD report is that average class sizes = 21 in primary, 14 in secondary,
but I gather this can be much higher in e.g Berlin and lower in sparsely populated areas

I heard that teachers in most schools change classroom, students don't, primary or secondary
So just as well that the school "day" is normally just mornings, e.g. 8am - 12:30 plus homework

Only a few all-day schools, in which case the afternoon is basically child-minding,as they do non-academic stuff - sports, drama, music, homework

Every action can reduce infection rates

Working from home again will help
Closing late night activities likely to prevent mingling with strangers
Random actions that people take to reduce social contact// protect themselves ...I think we saw the effect of that early on in London where transport patterns changed significantly a few weeks before lockdown

But it all rather depends upon adherence

@ bigchoc, can I ask if the figures for deaths is only those with a positive test? I thought that it was both a positive test and if on the death certificate but looking at the explanation on the gov site seems to be just positive tests? Surely this will lead to undercounting again?

Also, for children with covid symptoms and chaotic home lives, surely the amount of time needed to isolate might be longer. Anyone with a dodgy internet connection will be back of the line for tests, anyone who would find it difficult to continuously refresh a browser every 5 mins for 4 days likewise.

I honestly don't think today's measures will make much difference and will just justify a proper lockdown when the time comes.

Ben Bradshaw (labour mp) made an interesting point in the HoC earlier, basically suggesting that Germany and Italy were doing better because they had proper locally based contact tracing. Of course Boris waffled out of it .I know Andy Burnham in GM is trying to sort this out locally despite not really having proper funding for it as far as I am aware.

Separately a welsh mp is kicking off because a busload of tourists from Bolton which is supposedly in local lockdown have been doing pub crawls in pembrokeshire which must be striking a nerve. Welsh local lockdowns say that you can't leave your county (though I'm not sure this is actually enforced). I don't think it's unreasonable to leave a local lockdown area to go, for example, with your own household to go on walk or something but it seems totally ridiculous that you could apparently get on a bus in a lockdown area with lots of others and go elsewhere on a pub crawl. While people get away with stuff like this there is no hope for the rest of us, sadly.

@Oldbagface

Can I ask. Will today's measures actually bring the infection rate down? Also, is BJ likely to add any further measures tonight when he addresses the nation?

I think timing 10pm shutting with freshers week won't help. Either they will start earlier or rush drinks and be unable to make sensible decisions come 9.30pm or bring everyone back to theirs and no SD in homes. There are not enough police to attend burglary/theft where I live and there are streets of uni accommodation, they won't be informing on parties.

@Humphriescushion

@ bigchoc, can I ask if the figures for deaths is only those with a positive test? I thought that it was both a positive test and if on the death certificate but looking at the explanation on the gov site seems to be just positive tests? Surely this will lead to undercounting again?

... Deaths in the UK are only counted with a positive test Only Belgium afaik counts deaths without; one reason for their very high official death rate

Undercounting is normally picked up later by the ONS
Hence why the ONS state > 57,000 deaths

Banning pub crawls would be top of my list!

14 in secondary??????? It's mind blowing. 33 in my school. 33 in a room built for 28 desks. I knew it was smaller classes in Germany but I didn't realise it was like comparing Apples and elephants.

You cant balance out schools +0.4? With such minimal measures.

@Oldbagface

Can I ask. Will today's measures actually bring the infection rate down? Also, is BJ likely to add any further measures tonight when he addresses the nation?

... All the measures will help to some extent, but may just slow down the increase. Or indeed make it level off, especially if some people are a bit more compliant after the Whitty / Vallance explanation without the politicos

As for what BJ may add later:
probably confusion !
(going by his previous addresses to the nation)

Ah @ bigchoc, thanks, thought they had changed this at some point.

@IloveJKRowling

Also, for children with covid symptoms and chaotic home lives, surely the amount of time needed to isolate might be longer. Anyone with a dodgy internet connection will be back of the line for tests, anyone who would find it difficult to continuously refresh a browser every 5 mins for 4 days likewise.

Absolutely!

There's a 3 or 4 tier system going on on many levels!

People do change behaviour however when the tide turns.

Didn’t we peak quite early just before schools closed because some companies etc were taking own decisions.

The mood is different now to March, possibly lower fear, 200 deaths is far under what we experienced and although it will go above that is the number that was highlighted.

But overall behaviour around a long stark winter will feel different to our just finished happier summer.

Not sure obviously but always find the behavioural part of it interesting.