Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 19

[BigChocFrenzy]

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 19

Welcome to thread 19 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Welcome to thread 18 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
Modelling real number of infections February to date
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists each Thursday
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data test positivity etc, DIY graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

Thanks @conkersarebonkers, I missed that. I wonder what the evidence was that swayed Stormont and Holyrood to pursue this rather than Johnson's lighter touch restrictions? Would love to have been a fly on the wall at Four Nations Cobr this morning

I think Nicola Sturgeon said that increase in transmission in the West of Scotland was mainly driven by socialising in people's homes and that the rate of transmission has stabilized/ started to decrease with the restrictions, so makes sense for the whole of Scotland. Edinburgh today, was over 8% of newly tested positive.

@BigChocFrenzy

"why not just isolate the vulnerable" ?

If we can't explain to someone why isolation of 15 million isn't feasible, especially if infection is rampant in the other 52 million,
then either they aren't listening to anything except getting back to "their normal", or we are too crap to try explaining anything else.

A friend today is livid. Her son has been sent home from school. Everyone knows who it is thats triggered the bubble closure. It turns out the child concerned was at an (illegal) birthday and at least two others (adults) at the same party have also tested positive.

Friend works at a school - so shes now stuck in limbo as she has to go to work as shes technically not exposed (as far as she knows). Her son cant get tested for another couple of days (as a close contact with no symptoms). Her husband works at a pharmaceutical company.

The pharmaceutical company have their own onsite testing because they absolutely can not afford to have an outbreak amongst staff because that could jeopardise the drug production line.

If the drug production line was forced to close, that could have serious implications. Especially if other suppliers / factories all had a similar problem at the same time.

Clinically vulnerable people obviously might have the biggest issue with this...

It really does fuck me off that people cant think further than their noses.

Letting it 'rip though the population' or 'just shielding the vulnerable' doesn't work with supply chains and a heavily interconnected society with short production to delivery times.

Not that the message about supply chains abd logistics has hit home (yet)...

Re drinking:

The local districts in Germany that locked down after breaching the 50 / 100,000 threshhold have included, among other measures,
either restricted hours for pubs & restaurants, or tables outdoors only, or a ban on consuming alcohol outdoors except on licenced premises

So different areas target alcohol according to where the problem occurs locally, but alcohol - impaired judgement etc - seems a common theme that public health tend to address

Not surprising:
the role of alcohol has long been established in a number of social problems;

even though most people drink responsibly, those who don't - cause a disproportionate amount of trouble, which becomes much more serious during a pandemic,
e.g. larger outbreaks have been caused by irresponsible pub crawls by a person awaiting test results in UK, Germany and presumably many other countries too.

@MRex. Sewage report development just covered on BBC news channel - no dates given, seems a work in progress still

@RedToothBrush surely the son is off school 14 days regardless as a negative test in 2 days does not mean he won't develop symptoms and a positive test in 3 days +

Hence the reason schools are not meant to be testing the rest of the non symptom bubbles....

Puts your friend in an awful position I know

"a heavily interconnected society"

Yep, that's precisely the issue, red

No person is an island;
we all depend on goods and services which aren't delivered by an immune fairy

The most vulnerable depend on family or other carers, who may not be classed as within the 15 million vulnerable, so yet more people who have to avoid infection

Red i was so disheartened last night with some of the comments on here.

Either people don't get it or they don't care.

I have witnessed a party at a venue in an area with additional restrictions recently. Was shocked as it definitely broke the rule of 6.

I am so determined that if we get the virus it will be from the school. And transmission will stop with us. We won't take it in to the school if we can.

Son is off for 14 days (so missing two weeks of school regardless).

I believe he can get a test through his dad due to his work even if assymptomatic and his Dad definitely has access regardless.

But the Mum is stuffed in the interim...

...and that might be another school bubble popped.

I do think they should have restricted the times for sale of alcohol in off licences / supermarkets.

[quote PrayingandHoping]@RedToothBrush surely the son is off school 14 days regardless as a negative test in 2 days does not mean he won't develop symptoms and a positive test in 3 days +

Hence the reason schools are not meant to be testing the rest of the non symptom bubbles....

Puts your friend in an awful position I know [/quote]
...
The issue is that the irresponsible fools held an illegal gathering at which infection was spread and this has consequences for many other people:

They then sent their child to school, bursting a school bubble, so all those kids sent home and have their education disrupted;
some parents may get into trouble at work, or lose pay and have trouble paying bills

Some family members in key roles WoH may get infected, so their work cannot be done

and of course, the risk that infection may spread to people, vulnerable or not, who are then hit hard by it

... Happy Birthday to that kid

Worst bit is parents are key workers who REALLY REALLY should know better due to their roles.

Frankly they should be facing disciplinaries for it.

Off sales are only allowed between 10am and 10pm in Scotland. Has been like this for years, not due to Covid.

4926 cases today - so close to 5000 already.

Peri i get confused what's allowed where. I remember the booze aisle been shut on a Sunday (I am showing my age 😀).

I do get mixed up with all the different rules. I can go to the supermarket in Glasgow at 7pm on a Sunday but not in England and i can buy booze in England whenever I want.

My concern with the curfew down South is that people will come out of pub and head to the nearest Tesco to stock up and carry on in a private home.

I had an A Level lesson today on individualism and collectivism. They didn't like the idea of masks in school, but not one of these 16 and 17 year olds felt the virus should just be left to them to get and sod Other People. They all understood their actions affect others. Just as a little bit of cheer for you re the young!

@RedToothBrush

Son is off for 14 days (so missing two weeks of school regardless).

I believe he can get a test through his dad due to his work even if assymptomatic and his Dad definitely has access regardless.

But the Mum is stuffed in the interim...

...and that might be another school bubble popped.

But surely his dad is still at risk even if the test comes back negative? He'd have to be tested everyday....

But totally agree the birthday party kid parents needs a massive slap!

@Piggywaspushed

I had an A Level lesson today on individualism and collectivism. They didn't like the idea of masks in school, but not one of these 16 and 17 year olds felt the virus should just be left to them to get and sod Other People. They all understood their actions affect others. Just as a little bit of cheer for you re the young!

I did wonder if its the parents that are the problem!

I was hearing all about clear masks from my 9 year old today.

I was against masks in school initially but I think now if they are needed they are needed.

If they could be safely used (without spreading virus more) even in primary school then fair enough.

4,926 cases
37 deaths

Clear masks, not visors, remove some of the issues with standard masks, especially for schools

@NeurotrashWarrior

Some pupils are safer in schools.

Other pupils are clinically vulnerable or their families are clinically vulnerable. Those pupils may reasonably feel that their best interests are served in staying home while there is a pandemic raging exponentially, as they would rather not risk either being ill or being bereaved of a parent. Especially if a reasonable education could be delivered at home by said parents, and there are no exams or transition years looming.

I would suggest that most pupils are not in the situation of needing oversight from social services.

Oh goodness at todays figures.
Could pass the 5000 mark within the next couple of days

Except if you are allergic to the clear masks!

I had a boy wearing a mask for a lesson today as he has a cough ( has had a negative test) and didn't want to worry people . It made no difference to his learning at all. He contributed just as much. I love him; he is so nice!

@Timeforanotherusername

Peri i get confused what's allowed where. I remember the booze aisle been shut on a Sunday (I am showing my age 😀).

I do get mixed up with all the different rules. I can go to the supermarket in Glasgow at 7pm on a Sunday but not in England and i can buy booze in England whenever I want.

My concern with the curfew down South is that people will come out of pub and head to the nearest Tesco to stock up and carry on in a private home.

.... not really an infection issue with drinking in a private home - if compliant with legal limits for visitors - as there would far fewer people than in a pub Also probably the same people they meet a lot anyway, rather then random strangers who could be just back from abroad or an eye test

Within a single family, there won't be SD there even without alcohol.

Yes here I would agree with that. The vast majority of our pupils in an sen school are not clinically vulnerable and their vulnerabilities lie in needing the routine of school.

It's an extremely individual situation.

Either way, it's utterly shit they're bottom of the pile for testing.