Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 19

[BigChocFrenzy]

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 19

Welcome to thread 19 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Welcome to thread 18 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
Modelling real number of infections February to date
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists each Thursday
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data test positivity etc, DIY graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

@Piggywaspushed

(I don't know how to do accents on letters...)

On an iphone or iPad hold down the letter!

@Augustbreeze I think it's been incorrect interpretation in some cases..... the whole class I know of that was sent to get tested only had 1 case.

I think in places where there has been several cases inside a bubble there is justification for it, even though all would still need to isolate for 14 days regardless of result

Bat that is very true. My ds has autism diagnosed. But he actually had a generic degenerative neurological condition.

Has not had!

Agree about footfall.

Flu at a later date. It's going to be a very hard winter

The footfall data is really interesting yes please to having that on p1.

Footfall - be interesting with probable further restrictions coming.
Flu - When cases begin

@Augustbreeze - They did it as part of schools testing to verify transmission.

@BigChocFrenzy - woot! Good decisions both.

^While updating MPs, Mr Hancock revealed the priority list for coronavirus tests.

First in line for a test will be those either working in acute clinical care, or those due to receive it

Second will be care home workers and residents

Third on the list are NHS staff, including GPs and pharmacists

Fourth is targeted testing for outbreak management and surveillance studies

Fifth on the list are teaching staff with symptoms

Last in line is the general public when they have symptoms and those in "in areas of high incidents" will be prioritised^

Unless you include family members of the priority groups then it’s meaningless. In the last fortnight 5 of my husband’s consultant team have had to self-isolate (including us). All because of children with temperatures. Unless you allow families access to tests then the NHS staff won’t be able to work even though they aren’t the ones with symptoms

FYI an example from Germany:

Currently 3 local districts atm have 7-day incidences of > 50 / 100,000,
which is a threshhold which automatically requires the local authority - NOT central govt - to implement appropriate measures:

(there are 401 districts and Germany as a whole is at 13.1 / 100,000; 4-day R= 1.06; 7-day R = 1.04)

https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/NeuartigesCoronavirus/Situationsberichte/Septt_2020/2020-09-21-de.pdf?__blob=publicationFile

".... the district Cloppenburg and the cities of Würzburg and Munich where the 7-day incidence is > 50 cases/100,000 population.

The increased incidence in the district of Cloppenburg can be attributed to several COVID-19 clusters after outbreaks in sport clubs, families, nurseries, und religious communities.
Responsible authorities implemented extensive regional measures, e.g. (partly) closings of schools and sport clubs, restaurants and event locations.
Furthermore, serial testing of affected facilities was performed.

The increased incidence in the city of Würzburg can be attributed to COVID-19 cluster after an outbreak in a shisha bar and further cases in private (bar visit) or work environments.
A general ruling was published for the city which provides for restrictions on private events (max. 50 persons indoors, max. 100 persons outdoors)
and prohibits the serving of alcohol from 11 p.m. to 6.00 a.m.
Linked to this cluster, the 7-day incidence in the surrounding district of rural Würzburg is also increasing.

In the city of Munich several outbreaks (mobile care service, hospital, accommodation for asylum seekers, day care centres, schools, restaurants/bars and returning travellers) have contributed to the increased 7- day incidence.
Current measures comprise a ban on the selling and consuming of alcohol,
prolonged obligation to wear a mouth and nose mask in schools,
football games without spectators and intensified control measures during public celebrations.
Further measures are currently being discussed.

The increased incidence in the affected districts is mainly due to transmission during family and other private events. The proportion of travel returnees among the cases is decreasing.

An increase in COVID-19-related outbreaks is reported in nursing homes"

itsgettingweird that must be so tough without having bloody Covid to worry about on top of it.

Local authorities in Germany have the power & resources - and responsibility - to tailor the measures according to their particular situation, geography, culture etc

DIdo may have just crashed the moonshot:

aboutmanchester.co.uk/no-moonshot-covid-tests-on-the-nhs-says-dido-harding/

"The so called Coronavirus moonshot tests which will allow people to resume normal life will not be available on the NHS, the Government’s testing czar Dido Harding has suggested.

Harding said that individuals and companies would have to pay to access the proposed tests, which would return results in as little as 15 minutes, as a “cost of doing business”. 🤦🏻‍♀️

Harding:
Striding out of a history of failure into a future of failure too

@BatSegundo

itsgettingweird that must be so tough without having bloody Covid to worry about on top of it.

He's actually quite "well" considering all that. He's a swimmer aiming for para Olympics and more a Sheldon Cooper type in personality (which is exhausting!) he's at Ms with EHCP.

The bigger concern is my mum who has terminal cancer and just finished chemo and takes chemo drugs and my dad who finished chemo in April (in remission) and then turned 70.

And yet somehow (luckily!) I seem to be the only one of us who has had it!

Unless you allow families access to tests then the NHS staff won’t be able to work even though they aren’t the ones with symptoms.

AFAIK, families of key workers have already got access to tests if the key workers themselves work outside of home.

I am technically a key worker and we got a "reminder" this weekend that those of us who work in the office can apply for tests for ourselves and our household members with symptoms through HR. We are lower down in the queue than NHS staff, care home staff/residents or teachers which makes perfect sense.

I was not aware of this rule but apparently it has been in place for a while.

letter in BMJ to CMOs advocating suppression of virus rather than shielding of the ECV, from several professors

Here comes, my heart sinks when I read avoid large indoor gatherings, especially where vocalisation is present.
What's a chatty vibrant class's going to do!

I got a test for my DC today through work. I work for the NHS but I am probably the least critical staff member ever but when I phoned to tell them I needed to isolate until I'd had him tested an appointment was sorted through OH within the hour!

Something odd about cases near me. Cases in my town, adjacent town and city still fairly low.

But I know small outbreak on ship and in a nearby base. Will these not count in figures because they are military tests? Perhaps privately done?

The case figures for adjacent town and city certainly don't reflect these.

@itsgettingweird

Something odd about cases near me. Cases in my town, adjacent town and city still fairly low.

But I know small outbreak on ship and in a nearby base. Will these not count in figures because they are military tests? Perhaps privately done?

The case figures for adjacent town and city certainly don't reflect these.

Pillar 1 is NHS testing. Pillar 2 is community testing.

Military are probably neither and may be done internally within the MOD

I did wonder. And tbh they are contained outbreaks as such because they are on base iyswim?

Tests use permanent home address not e.g. local hotel, and while the services address could be semi-permanent barracks, military may be registering real home address, as it would be quite usual to do so. For example, military can choose to vote as a citizen, overseas citizen or services - giving 3 options for a normal address. Added to that the MTUs are travelling, so someone from e.g. Catterick might be posted in Bolton, but they don't have an address there.

Just did a quick search and results are sent to both primary health provider (GP) and military.
www.gov.uk/government/statistics/number-of-covid-19-tests-in-defence-and-positive-cases-in-the-uk-armed-forces-2020

Page 4 says "2 Location is where the positive test result for the individual was first entered. This is not necessarily where personnel are
currently located or where they were first exposed to COVID-19."
I.e. Could be anywhere at all. But definitely tracked.