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Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 19

999 replies

BigChocFrenzy · 18/09/2020 11:11

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 19

Welcome to thread 19 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Welcome to thread 18 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
Modelling real number of infections February to date
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists each Thursday
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data test positivity etc, DIY graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment

Our STUDIES Corner

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

OP posts:
Thread gallery
53
GetAMoveOnTroodon · 21/09/2020 19:19

Fingon - that’s absolute madness Shock

sirfredfredgeorge · 21/09/2020 19:25

and unless the other children become symptomatic they won’t be eligible for a test

This is the same as us mind... just that ours might at least be isolated! For now...

Remember the reason for tests is not because of any desire not to find the case it's because whilst you're incubating the virus you will not necessarily test positive, so a negative test at that point doesn't mean you've not got the virus, just that you are not yet infectious.

Hence the isolate close contacts, not test them.

herecomesthsun · 21/09/2020 19:44

Italy appear to have done a good containment job with a lot of testing.

And the Lancet modelling safe school re-opening with 75-87% testing of symptomatic individuals. Without wanting to spoil the evening, this paper appears to predict another 250k deaths without that level of testing.

herecomesthsun · 21/09/2020 19:46

@sirfredfredgeorge

Could you run that past us again? Why would you want to test but not find the case? I am not understanding the argument there.

Oldbagface · 21/09/2020 19:53

Sorry for the language but fuck me.

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 19
FingonTheValiant · 21/09/2020 19:53

Although French teachers have a reputation for striking, it’s actually been quite a while since there was large-scale strike action. I don’t think they’ll do it for this as we’re getting it from all sides anyway for having been on paid holiday for the whole of lockdown and then for the summer. (Despite all the parents who actually watched us teach the full timetable during lockdown).

The papers are all reporting that parents and businesses are thrilled by the announcement. Most of the parents I know aren’t thrilled. Several have said that they now feel they have to entirely cut contact with grand-parents as due to asymptomatic cases and lack of isolating, there’s even higher risk the children could spread it.

At lunch we were talking and most of my colleagues (secondary) agreed that we’d be sending our primary kids in with masks from now on to try to mitigate the risk to our primary colleagues Sad. My two eldest will be wearing them. But my youngest is 3 and as much as I love his teacher I don’t think he’ll manage.

My really good friend at work is ECV, he didn’t come back at all before the summer. He was told to be in in September or give up his job. Same for all teachers. So I think it’s tough luck on any CV primary teachers. I’m hoping the unions might at least step up for them though.

They’re justifying it by saying that children are «not very active in the spread of Covid».

Sorry, yes, I forgot in the U.K. they have to have symptoms to be tested. Some close contacts were tested here regardless of symptoms, depending on how long it had been since the contact. But unless the kids get a fever and a cough, no one is going to be checking whether it’s spreading 8n primary schools. And I suspect any teachers who catch it will be told it’s come from outside school.

Anyway, basically they've insured teachers won’t be off isolating, and no one can link outbreaks to primary schools, and classes will be almost impossible to close.

Nquartz · 21/09/2020 19:57

@herecomesthsun

Italy appear to have done a good containment job with a lot of testing.

And the Lancet modelling safe school re-opening with 75-87% testing of symptomatic individuals. Without wanting to spoil the evening, this paper appears to predict another 250k deaths without that level of testing.

Jesus christ.

We're in for a really shit winter

Piggywaspushed · 21/09/2020 20:14

Oh fingon : that's shit.

Solidarite !

Piggywaspushed · 21/09/2020 20:14

(I don't know how to do accents on letters...)

Coquohvan · 21/09/2020 20:21

Bon courage @FingonTheValiant

BatSegundo · 21/09/2020 20:25

I know the thread has moved on a bit, but I do wonder if the autism 'vulnerability' is actually a red herring Autism is a very broad umbrella, as I'm sure you know, but around 25% of people are non-verbal and a slightly larger number will be verbal but with severe learning needs.

I work with a lot of children and young people with severe and profound and multiple learning difficulties. They often have autism as well (60-70% at the last count). These children's learning needs and autism often relate to a known medical difficulty, either birth injury, prenatal/neonatal infection or a genetic difference. Their exact condition may be rare, described in numbers (e.g. duplication of the long arm of X at position y) or have no name. But autism is readily (and usually appropriately) diagnosed. They are often medically frail. Their actual diagnoses may not be recorded in statistics, but their unifying diagnosis of autism will be.

With regards to learning disabilities more generally, there is the same crossover with medical vulnerabilities. Children and adults with learning disabilities have lower life expectancies on average, with circulatory and respiratory conditions being the top causes of death, so it makes sense that Covid would be more of a problem for this population.

Both groups are also more likely to live in or attend communal settings (care homes, day centres, schools), to need access to essential services through lockdown and be less able to follow social distancing.

Just a theory, but it would be useful to know more so that we can continue to be more cautious for those who need it and so those with autism without these additional complications are not worrying unduly.

FingonTheValiant · 21/09/2020 20:30

Merci beaucoup Piggy et Coquohvan Grin

FingonTheValiant · 21/09/2020 20:32

BatSegundo those are all really good points. It could potentially both reassure those without additional complications, and indicate much more clearly who needs better protection. I wonder whether that data is being recorded though...

BigChocFrenzy · 21/09/2020 20:40

[quote Augustbreeze]Mencap made a statement last week:

Latest ONS data shows that disabled people make up almost 6 in 10 COVID-19 deaths, Mencap calls on the Government and NHSE to take urgent action to prevent more lives from being lost this winter.

(Obviously the 6/10 includes patients with physical disabilities as well.)

www.mencap.org.uk/press-release/mencap-responds-ons-data-number-disabled-people-who-have-died-covid-19[/quote]
....
That is shocking, but like BatSegundo I paused and then thought of comorbidities and also institutions, especially for those who have outlived their parents

I hope the NHS monitoring helps establish if any additional measures are needed to improve the prognosis of those with disabilities

OP posts:
MRex · 21/09/2020 20:41

I wonder if more detailed are grouped for patient confidentiality protection, but the data is available? I know someone with a relatively rare condition who was contacted by her consultant and told she could stop shielding because she was no longer considered at greater risk. It was earlier than the general review of the list, so he must have had access to something to know?

BigChocFrenzy · 21/09/2020 20:43

Herecomesthesun I downloaded that sheet with the 5 alert levels early on,
but I haven't seen it referred to for months Hmm

  • I think it's been quietly deep-sixed as being too specific and hence now embarassing
OP posts:
BigChocFrenzy · 21/09/2020 20:46

@MRex

I wonder if more detailed are grouped for patient confidentiality protection, but the data is available? I know someone with a relatively rare condition who was contacted by her consultant and told she could stop shielding because she was no longer considered at greater risk. It was earlier than the general review of the list, so he must have had access to something to know?
.... Since age is such a dominant risk factor, I wonder if some young or even early middle-aged people who were originally considered ECV no longer are, if they have the same risk as say someone aged 55-60
OP posts:
BigChocFrenzy · 21/09/2020 20:47

fingon I'm surprised at those school decisions, considering France's current cases and R Confused

OP posts:
BigChocFrenzy · 21/09/2020 21:05

In good time before the next new thread, can people give feedbackif it would be useful to add these 2 links to the OP, please:

Flu info:
https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/weekly-national-flu-reports-2019-to-2020-season.

Footfall for listed countries:
https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/.

OP posts:
sirfredfredgeorge · 21/09/2020 21:08

Could you run that past us again? Why would you want to test but not find the case? I am not understanding the argument there

Sorry - it's about the context of not testing close contacts of confirmed cases - you don't do that not because you're trying to avoid finding them as a positive. It's because they are potentially going to test negative despite being infected, because the test only works once you're infectious.

So it's never a good idea to test close contacts - they should just isolate until symptoms or at least so many days - the 7 in france seems a bit low on most studies.

sirfredfredgeorge · 21/09/2020 21:09

footfall yes - I think flu not yet, as it's still going to be hardly any - wait until there is some increase in infections.

PrayingandHoping · 21/09/2020 21:14

[quote herecomesthsun]@sirfredfredgeorge

Could you run that past us again? Why would you want to test but not find the case? I am not understanding the argument there.[/quote]
@herecomesthsun

There is no point testing all contacts immediately without symptoms. A negative test would be meaningless as it could take up to 14 days to incubate the virus and actually get a positive test. So let's say u find out 3 days after contact that there's been a positive test, and u manage to get a test day 5. Well you MIGHT get a positive test, but u may get a negative. Great u might think.... no.... the next day you could test positive as it was just incubating at day 5

That's why testing whole classes of school children because of 1 positive test is entirely pointless and a waste of resources. They need to isolate for 14 days and only test if they have symptoms

itsgettingweird · 21/09/2020 21:20

@alreadytaken

The only people who could provide hard evidence for non-compliance would be the police and/or the test and trace service. We know test and trace cant contact a lot of people (false details maybe?) and that a significant minority of those they contact dont even say they will self isolate.

The most I can offer is that some parts of the country do not have infection rates increasing exponentially - suggesting that some areas are or were more compliant than others. It is difficult to separate the effect of deprivation and the anti-authority attitude that may go with that.

Excellent summary analysis based on lists of data that's hard to always make sense of
Augustbreeze · 21/09/2020 21:20

There are examples where eg all of a class is tested, just as all of a workplace is sometimes tested. It is surely because there are multiple cases or other pressing reasons for thinking there may be asymptomatic transmission?

BigChocFrenzy · 21/09/2020 21:22

@sirfredfredgeorge

footfall yes - I think flu not yet, as it's still going to be hardly any - wait until there is some increase in infections.
... That's what I was thinking

@MRex I'll add footfall to the next OP and then flu when the season starts

OP posts: