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Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 19

999 replies

BigChocFrenzy · 18/09/2020 11:11

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 19

Welcome to thread 19 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Welcome to thread 18 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
Modelling real number of infections February to date
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists each Thursday
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data test positivity etc, DIY graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment

Our STUDIES Corner

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

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Thread gallery
53
AnyFucker · 21/09/2020 23:29

.

BigChocFrenzy · 21/09/2020 23:51

Carl Heneghan & Suneptra Gupta have joined up with Sikorsky (who keeps saying Covid is over) in a letter to the PM & chancellor
and seem to be asking that they "protect" the vulnerable (i.e. wish them the best of luck) but drop restrictions for everyone else, to prioritise the economy and a return to normal

Letter on twitter and also in the Spectator:

www.spectator.co.uk/article/boris-needs-to-rethink-his-covid-strategy

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BigChocFrenzy · 21/09/2020 23:55

These 3 - especially SIkorsky - have a particular ideological viewpoint of prioritising the economy
and hence have been claiming for months that Covid is not serious enough to justify SD etc

The "let it all rip" merchants

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BigChocFrenzy · 22/09/2020 00:09

My opinion of Heneghan & Guptra was not high before and has certainly sunk now.
(My opinion of Sikorsky has been low for years)

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GetAMoveOnTroodon · 22/09/2020 07:32

Family members of NHS workers did have priority to tests previously, but apparently not in the reshuffle of priority groups that MH announced yesterday. I suspect individual trusts will end up sorting out their own system to ensure staff can work by testing children. It was specifically mentioned on C4 news last night that children were now in the lowest priority group (irrespective of whether their parents were higher up the rankings).

alreadytaken · 22/09/2020 08:16

The BMJ letter is a polite way of saying we cant support Prof Heneghan, quite right too, the man is a dangerous idiot.

QueenStromba · 22/09/2020 08:32

Here's the European CDC's report on reinfections. They've just included cases where there is phylogenetic analysis available on the two infections. Of six total cases, two were asymptomatic both times. The remaining four all had fairly mild cases the first time. Of those, 1lone was symptomatic the second time, one sounds to have had a milder case the second time, one had a more severe case the second time but was not hospitalised and the last had a more severe case and required hospitalisation. Now this is a very small sample size but it's very concerning that a third of proven reinfections (and half of previously symptomatic cases) had worse symptoms the second time around. It's also very concerning that the worst reinfection case tested positive again only 48 days after his original positive test.

www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/threat-assessment-brief-reinfection-sars-cov-2

BatSegundo · 22/09/2020 09:13

@GetAMoveOnTroodon

Family members of NHS workers did have priority to tests previously, but apparently not in the reshuffle of priority groups that MH announced yesterday. I suspect individual trusts will end up sorting out their own system to ensure staff can work by testing children. It was specifically mentioned on C4 news last night that children were now in the lowest priority group (irrespective of whether their parents were higher up the rankings).
That seems daft. I know that children are least likely to be affected badly, but they are surely at greater risk of spreading it than say an adult who works from home and socialises once or twice a week? And if the family members of key workers can't get tests then that's going to cause a lot of unnecessary absence in essential services like schools, hospitals and logistics.
MarshaBradyo · 22/09/2020 09:22

Good session with Neil F on R4 atm

This waning immunity over time is quite something. It’s the one thing that makes me feel on edge and reminds me how much we need treatment and vaccine.

MRex · 22/09/2020 09:23

Is there a graph somewhere of the dates of rule changes and content? It would be interesting to plot figures with change % 2 and 4 weeks after the adjustments.
Initially it was symptomatic people stay home for 7 days, but allowed out for exercise or food shop.
Then their families stay home too.
Then everyone who can stay home to stay home.
Now anyone who's a contact of an infected person or has been to a non-exempt country to stay home 14 days no exercise. Positive test = 10 days.

I worry that the rules are too harsh and that encourages issues. Not to go so far as France but e.g. allow people to go for a walk outside if wearing a mask, not interacting with others and not using any shared lift. There's so little fomite risk for flats that it seems low enough risk, especially for uninfected / asymptomatic people. It might actually help reinforce the message about not going into shops when infected. Likewise, when a symptomatic person fully recovers, if that's less than 10 days then is there evidence they would still be infectious or couldn't they go out? I know there will be a worry that any rule or rule change seems to lead to a cohort saying "it makes no sense because why can't I see my mum wah!" and a proportion of them then ignoring it... But some really could be lightened.

QueenStromba · 22/09/2020 09:31

@MarshaBradyo

Good session with Neil F on R4 atm

This waning immunity over time is quite something. It’s the one thing that makes me feel on edge and reminds me how much we need treatment and vaccine.

Vaccines induce less of an immune response than catching a disease. If having had covid doesn't protect you from catching it again then a vaccine won't either.
MarshaBradyo · 22/09/2020 09:35

Queen the vaccine people know the limitations but still persevering, there must be benefit?

Sunshine is good at vaccine info - would be good to hear more

BigChocFrenzy · 22/09/2020 09:42

Mrex I suspect the total stay home is for ease of enforcement - although it seems the UK very rarely checks up, hence the new draconian penalties
Enforcement and a realistic fear of being caught are deterrents, not so much a minute chance of a huge fine,
and even there, only to those who didn't avoid testing

In Germany, like some other countries, from back in March, there has a daily phone check - which is also useful to check for symptoms or need for groceries etc - and the police will sometimes swing by too
Impossible for this to work unless there are no exceptions (barring life-threatening emergencies) to stay home

Again though, only works for those who are in the sytem and haven't avoided testing
What helps reduce this number is generous sick / isolation pay and employment protection - very difficult to sack people after the 6 months probationary period - but there will always be the selfish

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QueenStromba · 22/09/2020 09:44

@MarshaBradyo

Queen the vaccine people know the limitations but still persevering, there must be benefit?

Sunshine is good at vaccine info - would be good to hear more

There'll be some level of protection but it won't be anywhere near perfect. It won't let us get back to normal but it should reduce R enough to ease a restriction or two. There was also the hope at the start that immunity would last 2-3 years like MERS and SARS1 are thought to behave rather than the 6-18 months for the endemic coronaviruses.
BigChocFrenzy · 22/09/2020 09:46

Fauci said that the first vacine might only give immunity to 50% of those receiving it,
but that would still have a great effect on R and spread

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BigChocFrenzy · 22/09/2020 09:49

The main issue will be what % of the 65+ age group could get immunity

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BatSegundo · 22/09/2020 09:53

@MRex

There must be some data somewhere presumably, that they are using to inform their decision-making about what measures to take? Given the unprecedented nature of this though, along with the complications in generalising findings between different areas of the UK (nevermind between countries) I suspect that there's a fair amount of guesswork involved.

With regard to the strictness of isolation measures, there's a balance to be found. People are likely to push the boundaries whatever they are so "Don't go out except for essential medical care" becomes "I'll go out really early to walk the dog/I need some paracetamol so I'll go to the pharmacy". If you allow more, then they may push that even further into genuinely risky behaviour.

On the other hand, if you make it too strict, you risk people saying "that's ridiculous, I'm not going to bother doing in of it". Especially when trust in government is low.

This is definitely one aspect of the government's work that I'd like to see behavioural scientists getting involved with!

sirfredfredgeorge · 22/09/2020 09:57

Queen the vaccine people know the limitations but still persevering, there must be benefit?

Huge benefit to companies that get to sell you a new vaccine every year rather than just once.

NeurotrashWarrior · 22/09/2020 09:59

@BatSegundo

I know the thread has moved on a bit, but I do wonder if the autism 'vulnerability' is actually a red herring Autism is a very broad umbrella, as I'm sure you know, but around 25% of people are non-verbal and a slightly larger number will be verbal but with severe learning needs.

I work with a lot of children and young people with severe and profound and multiple learning difficulties. They often have autism as well (60-70% at the last count). These children's learning needs and autism often relate to a known medical difficulty, either birth injury, prenatal/neonatal infection or a genetic difference. Their exact condition may be rare, described in numbers (e.g. duplication of the long arm of X at position y) or have no name. But autism is readily (and usually appropriately) diagnosed. They are often medically frail. Their actual diagnoses may not be recorded in statistics, but their unifying diagnosis of autism will be.

With regards to learning disabilities more generally, there is the same crossover with medical vulnerabilities. Children and adults with learning disabilities have lower life expectancies on average, with circulatory and respiratory conditions being the top causes of death, so it makes sense that Covid would be more of a problem for this population.

Both groups are also more likely to live in or attend communal settings (care homes, day centres, schools), to need access to essential services through lockdown and be less able to follow social distancing.

Just a theory, but it would be useful to know more so that we can continue to be more cautious for those who need it and so those with autism without these additional complications are not worrying unduly.

Very insightful post.

BatSegundo · 22/09/2020 10:39

Thanks @NeurotrashWarrior

What do you think of children being at the bottom of the list for testing? I really think that we need to keep it out of Special Schools like yours. Although deaths in children are very low, those that have occurred have largely been amongst the very vulnerable. I think Special schools should be given extra test kits for this reason (there also good arguments around minimising isolation for those least able to understand it and where parents really need the respite).

alreadytaken · 22/09/2020 10:49

I'm not a vaccine expert but would hope vaccines would reduce disease severity to the point that hospital beds were not being used on Covid and normal health care could continue.

Anything that gives time to explore treatments will be beneficial. We have a couple of not great treatments now but there are others in the pipeline that look more promising. I'm more hopeful about treatments than about a vaccine.

Yummyoldbag · 22/09/2020 11:05

A few pages back I asserted that I had found admissions to hospitals. I have just managed to get back onto the laptop; they are listed by trust on hospital. So sorry to those I sent on a wild goose chase.

BigChocFrenzy · 22/09/2020 11:16

@sirfredfredgeorge

Queen the vaccine people know the limitations but still persevering, there must be benefit?

Huge benefit to companies that get to sell you a new vaccine every year rather than just once.

... Unless you buy into conspiracy theories, the scientists working in the field and the public health chiefs around the world have sufficient expertise to judge whether vaccines will make a difference

They won't be a silver bullet, but adding a chunk of immune people

  • reasonably expected to be much higher than the current 8% in the UK - will swing the balance into being able to relax the most onerous measures, maybe all of them
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BigChocFrenzy · 22/09/2020 11:21

Fauci is at the pessimistic end of the scale - but imo more realistic - talking of the first vaccines being only 50% effective
That would still be a huge advance

The vaccines would be improved over the years, since so far Covid variants have little clinical diference, unlike needing a different flu vaccine every year

In the meantime, the first vaccines would give time to develop better treatments
andalso reduce the pressure on health services & the economy

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