Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 19

[BigChocFrenzy]

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 19

Welcome to thread 19 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Welcome to thread 18 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
Modelling real number of infections February to date
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists each Thursday
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data test positivity etc, DIY graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment

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CMOs say alert level should be raised to 4

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk

@Firefliess

Isn't undetected asymptomatic transmission via an unknown third party the more likely explanation for these very delayed onset cases? Unless you're testing everyone in the group every few days or somebody is isolated on their own (which these cases weren't) I can't see how you can tell.

Yes

[quote Augustbreeze]CMOs say alert level should be raised to 4

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk[/quote]
And it is now.

[quote Augustbreeze]CMOs say alert level should be raised to 4

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk[/quote]
So shielding should be resumed according to this? as shielding is only supposed to stop at level one.

Speaking as someone who was shielding till 1st August.

What was the situation with schools at 4? they have a separate thing for schools which is very confusing ... probably deliberately...

There is certainly an air of slight panic in my school today about remote learning.

All whilst they are snatching laptops back off the disadvantaged students??

Here where is that chart from?

This from BBC an hour or so ago

@alreadytaken

"I would like to see some evidence that people are acting like idiots - we have very few cases pinpointed to things which are against the rules, and lots of assumptions."

Eaten out at all, gone out at all, walked past a pub - you'll have seen non-compliance. It needs pressure from other people so that becomes unacceptable, with much larger fines and jail for rule breaking.

Agree.

There's a thread on MN atm where a group of teens on a train had no masks and were deliberately coughing into the air saying they had Covid.

The number of people telling the OP they maybe mask excempt and it's what teens do is horrifying.

Especially because as much as it's just them being dicks they are also as teens likely to be asymptomatic and therefore could actually be spreading it.

Plus expecting socially responsible behaviour shouldn't be seen as abnormal

@MarshaBradyo that was from June.

[quote herecomesthsun]@MarshaBradyo that was from June.[/quote]
Ok thanks I think it’s now updated, in below post

I like to think I am pretty alert (excuse use of buzzword) and I have never seen that alert wording before now marsha. The government keeps rewording stuff sneakily don't they? The last time they went through the alerts was in June when we all saw the more detailed (and different ) one...

Re the teenagers : as a teacher who gets kids pretty complaint in lessons, I agree that there is a swathe of posters on MN who seem to think aberrant behaviour, totally ignoring nay social mores is just teenagers being teenagers. No, it really isn't. We have got to the point where we expect more of them in school than we do out of it.

Piggy me either and the difference at level 4 between SD and back into lockdown is pretty big!

But lockdown isn’t the right way to go atm so I can see why. Although it does make a mockery of levels if you can just change the wording instead.

Agree piggy I work with ones with severe LD. we still have expectations of them!

@MarshaBradyo aaaaaaaah. So the point of posting this chart, is that the Government previously admitted that we needed the virus to be a lot better under control before

• opening schools
• stopping shielding
• generally opening everything up

They are reneging on their previous comments. Because it is in some ways convenient for them, everyone would like things to be the way they were, it would be great for kids to be back at school, and not to have to make exceptions for ECV people who are going to die.

However we are now at level 4, R is going up, case numbers are going up, and actually it is illuminating to look, in this instance, at what the buggers were saying before they opened everything up.

So it is updated, but also their previous comments still apply in a sort of this is the reality way.

The only people who could provide hard evidence for non-compliance would be the police and/or the test and trace service. We know test and trace cant contact a lot of people (false details maybe?) and that a significant minority of those they contact dont even say they will self isolate.

The most I can offer is that some parts of the country do not have infection rates increasing exponentially - suggesting that some areas are or were more compliant than others. It is difficult to separate the effect of deprivation and the anti-authority attitude that may go with that.

So to everyone’s total confusion here, despite the rising cases etc they announced that they are relaxing measures in primary schools. As from tomorrow, if a child tests positive in a primary school no one will be considered to be a close contact; not the teacher, not any of the other pupils. Only the child with the positive test will be sent home, and unless the other children become symptomatic they won’t be eligible for a test. Classes will be closed with 3 confirmed cases, but this now means 3 symptomatic cases.
Given that primary pupils aren’t wearing masks, everyone is baffled that the government thinks this is a good idea with numbers rising.

The view is that much like reducing the isolation period to 7 days, this is another way to avoid having to pay parents to stay at home with isolating children. People have become very sceptical here.

Fingon Wow where are you?

Or is it just your school?

France.

It’s nationwide

zut alors

fingon I have no words! Teachers are quite unionised in France? Are they talking about industrial action?

Blimey that is one way to get round the announcement on paying to isolate!

and what of the clinically vulnerable in the French scenario?

and unless the other children become symptomatic they won’t be eligible for a test.

This is the same as us mind... just that ours might at least be isolated! For now...

Wow @FingonTheValiant what’s the rationale behind that decision? How’s that being received?

I saw that post before you posted where you were and instantly started considering if I should pull my dd out of school...