Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 19

[BigChocFrenzy]

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 19

Welcome to thread 19 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Welcome to thread 18 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
Modelling real number of infections February to date
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists each Thursday
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data test positivity etc, DIY graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

[quote Oldbagface]@BigChocFrenzy May ask about autism please. Is it because people with ASD are less likely to be able to distance or that many are in care homes or is there a genetic factor? I have a child with ASD.[/quote]
...
I don't know why the NHS include autism, LDs or MH in their table of deaths by underlying conditions,
whether that even means there is a proven increased risk

They don't explain why

They track all conditions to find out which are affected, that's the protocol. Finding out why they are affected is a different job, hence the BAME reports.

It is just when you read "only xxx people aged under 40 / 60 without underlying conditions died of Covid"
remember that posters are excluding people of that age with autism in their death count.

4368/ 11

Gosh i didnt know about autism . I m already obese/have ME/asthma/falling apart but hadnt added on autism. Im a bit worried now.

Or is it just so they can claim their numbers "without underlying conditions" is really low as many people self identify into that without realising their friends in 30s and 40s have diabetes/autism/etc.

or it may be that it is too difficult to enforce existing laws on the wilfully uncooperative, hence compensating by more laws for the law-abiding

That is a terrible policy, all it does is drive more people into non-compliance, and you get the snowball effect, stricter and stricter pushing more people etc.. Policing has to be by consent, and the problem comes once they break one part of the rules, they're more likely to break another.

Of course governments don't have the all the data - part of their job is to present "this is the data we have" - this is not a situation where any evidence needs to be hidden from the enemy.

The face a few cases do make the news, is often suggestive of the rarity of it, rather than the commonplace - it's why "killed by bicycle" is front page national news, but "killed by car" doesn't make it out of the local.

Sounds reasonable, Mrex

but then even more unreasonable when people cherry-pick the numbers to exclude all deaths with any of these "underlying conditions"

Would they also exclude ethnic minorities from their count ?
Similarly twisted othering

Thanks

"That is a terrible policy"

When a govt loses the trust & goodwill of the people, coercion is the tool they have left
Are we at that point with Covid ?

Thanks BCF - I've always been a bit when deaths are just basically dismissed because they had underlying conditions but even more so now. My eldest has Autism & attends a special school setting where if some of his friends were to get the virus & sadly die from it (as some were previously shielding), it's upsetting to know their deaths are just dismissed so easily

4,368 cases

Absolutely @BigChocFrenzy.

@PineappleUpsideDownCake - please don't worry unnecessarily, there is no evidence of a significant additional risk, which is why it has never been raised as an additional risk. The overlap with respiratory issues is the most likely reason for it being tracked at all.

Have just been trying to find anything on increased risk due to LD etc, and will keep looking.

Sheffield Mencap have this statement when the first figures were released:

www.sheffieldmencap.org.uk/increased-death-rates-of-people-with-a-learning-disability-due-to-covid-19/

This seems like a step in right direction. As far as I can tell it is possible peer reviewed?
Vitamin D help reduce severity level: www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960076020302764?via%3Dihub

Hope a more comprehensive, bigger study is being done....

The ONS states > 57,000 people died with Covid

I can accept there is a pov that we have to balance risks, but I oppose the othering of those who are even over 60, or who are younger but vulnerable in some way.

I don't see how Whitty and Vallance can estimate we have 6000 actual new cases per day when we are recording over 4000 new cases a day from testing. Given that people who seek a test are mostly those with symptoms, some people with symptoms will be missed and most people without symptoms will be missed, then added to the time delay between infection and onset of symptoms, this seems like a marked underestimate of the situation to me.

Mencap made a statement last week:

Latest ONS data shows that disabled people make up almost 6 in 10 COVID-19 deaths, Mencap calls on the Government and NHSE to take urgent action to prevent more lives from being lost this winter.

(Obviously the 6/10 includes patients with physical disabilities as well.)

www.mencap.org.uk/press-release/mencap-responds-ons-data-number-disabled-people-who-have-died-covid-19

@Nellodee
The based that on ONS 'figures' though didn't they?

"I would like to see some evidence that people are acting like idiots - we have very few cases pinpointed to things which are against the rules, and lots of assumptions."

Eaten out at all, gone out at all, walked past a pub - you'll have seen non-compliance. It needs pressure from other people so that becomes unacceptable, with much larger fines and jail for rule breaking.

The number of 6000 cases is based on the latest ONS survey (published on September 18 and covering the period ending September 10 ) so I agree it is very likely to be out of date. However, the trend of infections doubling every 7-8 days might have also slowed down (and, in fact, stopped or reversed in some of the regions like South West and South East).

I understand ONS data is the most reliable source of information we have got available but I hope the advisors pay equal importance to real time data (even if it is not 100% perfect).

Anecdotal of course @alreadytaken but my Facebook is full of people saying things like 'F Boris, I'm doing a, b, c, and I don't care' or things like 'I've not changed, I'm getting on with my life, I'm sick of this shit' or 'it's only a cold ffs, people are being brainwashed.'

Also, I have a friend on Facebook that I've known for decades. Always thought him quite sensible, he's bame and has a young daughter but he goes on tangents about how it's about them controlling us and goes on these anti lockdown demonstrations.

I have another friend who refuses to wear a mask and will not go anywhere where a mask is required. It's bizarre.

The thing that infuriates me in the death dismissal is they often trot out cancer treatment being missed. And yet cancer is an underlying condition which they would waved away to make the callous point about only the sick or frail dying.

Eaten out at all, gone out at all, walked past a pub - you'll have seen non-compliance

I haven't seen much non-compliance in pubs and restaurants around here, they're busy but appear to be in appropriate sized groups - obviously I don't watch long enough to see "otherwise mingling", but that's a new law and only had a few times when I would've seen it.

But obviously our own personal anecdotes are no good here, we need evidence that "behaving like idiots" is driving the spread - and if it is, then enforcement of rules not new rules are the correct thing to do. The fact the media is trailing new restrictions, makes me think people aren't acting like idiots, but the restrictions are mistargeted.

The thing that infuriates me in the death dismissal is they often trot out cancer treatment being missed. And yet cancer is an underlying condition which they would waved away to make the callous point about only the sick or frail dying.

Yes. I have come to the conclusion that a lot of people are willing to cling onto whatever justifications, even those which are entirely contradictory, and no matter how inhumane or callous, to do what they want. Basically what they're looking for is an excuse to do something unconscionable.

I’d never made that connection @Piggywaspushed but you’re right.

I dare say most people, particularly the ones parroting that line, haven’t considered it either.