Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 19

[BigChocFrenzy]

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 19

Welcome to thread 19 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Welcome to thread 18 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
Modelling real number of infections February to date
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists each Thursday
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data test positivity etc, DIY graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

It certainly seems like that. They wanted to present their facts aside form any political gubbins.

I wonder what they would have wanted.

I thought that too. Distancing themselves from the politicians.

They wanted to present their info without twits chiming in with wrong or irrelevant info
and also to keep politics out of it

Apart from BJ confusing everyone,
a large chunk of voters are immediately suspicious and reject anything when they see him or Hancock on screen

The virologist Hendrik Streeck has said in Germany:
"the virus is not political, but it has been made a political issue"

Journalists also ask frustrating questions and they’re better off just presenting their information.

Livin I know the time does seem a bit of a barrier, especially if you don’t wfh

Hopefully people will get info later or watch it

@MarshaBradyo

Journalists also ask frustrating questions and they’re better off just presenting their information.

You mean silly questions that add no value......

Time yep!

I keep seeing posts quoting the number of deaths of people under 40 or 60 without underlying conditions,
not realising that a sizeable section of the public has these conditions, as classified in the NHS table

Not just physical conditions like morbid obesity, T1, COPD or high BP etc but also autism, LDs, treatment for MH

I may give up on another thread atm where someone is totally missing the point of my objection to this exclusion
and being very indignant that I include autism .... but I do so because the NHS table includes them

and the number of total deaths without underlying conditions is reached by subtracting all those with these conditions from the total deaths

I am not how much good it will have done if I am honest.

Too many people are still using Dominic Cummings as an excuse and are not happy that Whitty / Vallance did not criticise.

Of they had we would probably have had Dido Harding replace both of them.

They are needed. The are the best of the best in their fields and the deserve our respect.

Unfortunately the damage done over the last few years by those now in government mean that many in the British public no longer trust the voice of Experts.

It's not really the fault of the public:
the government deliberately kept denigrating experts e.g. Gove's "the public is tired of experts"
So it's the govt's own damn fault if a good chunk of the public no longer trust experts

Sky's Ed Conway points out that if the UK follows the trajectory of France & Spain, then cases would be 10k per day by mid October, not 49k,
see attached graph

We don't know what the Uk trajectory will be,
but naturally Whitty and the govt have to consider it is perfectly possible that UK cases will continue to double every 7 days, instead of following other countries

Dreadful responsibility to have

not realising that a sizeable section of the public has these conditions

but there still needs to be education on why isolating those and accepting the infections in those not identified as vulnerable isn't a viable policy. It's difficult to simply refute "we can't isolate 15 million people", when the policy is "isolate 65 million". People seem to be too focussed on the strawman of "let it rip through everyone", which doesn't need any effort to refute, it would overwhelm medical capacity.

A sizeable number of posters here & elsewhere are indeed demanding that all restrictions be dropped, go for herd immunity,
that vulnerable people isolate if they wish and everybody else resume "normal life"

However, that doesn't include letting people like teachers isolate, because that would affect the poster

I wasn't even aware Autism etc came under the 'underlying conditions'

@MarshaBradyo

Journalists also ask frustrating questions and they’re better off just presenting their information.

Or a reiteration of the same question 4 times...

My point is to highlight who posters are excluding when they claim only xxx number died under 40 or 60 without underlying conditions

The figures are meaningless
I might as well restrict the number of deaths I quote to only those that would have passed an SAS fitness test

Quoting a cherry-picked figure of just a few hundred deaths gives the false impression that COVID kills only the very elderly or the terminally ill younger people,
not people with very common conditions, young, middle-aged or old
who normally have years or decades of life expectancy
to work, bring up families, enjoy retirement, do childcare for grandkids

Some people aged 60+ are still working - including doctors & nurses

Isolation Support Payment - £500

Thats a start

@Shitfuckoh

I wasn't even aware Autism etc came under the 'underlying conditions'

... It's apparently not listed as a risk, neither is treatment for MH, but both are listed in the NHS death tables as an "underlying condition" see attached table

The cherry-picked number quoted always subtracts all those the NHS classifies as having underlying conditions

whoever said Whitty didnt mention immunity over than antibodies he did - said explicitly it doesnt add a lot.

I would have liked to see even more emphasis on other health care is going to vanish unless people stop acting like idiots because the health service will not ignore those dying in front of them. That will not just mean accidents, it could also mean maternity care. No-one will be able to rely on an ambulance for a heart attack either.

Children dont need many beds and the NHS would always try and fit them in but it could get to the stage where that will require more than 2 weeks of restrictions, it will require 3 weeks minimum of total lockdown.

Hancock also announced a childcare exemption in local lockdown areas, to enable people to work.

Presumably that means additional mixing of households would be allowed for that, because standard childcare would be closed / in short supply

There was a discussion about what Italy are doing differently.

This morning on ITv there was 3 young men who went out to teach English at a camp.
Travelling Florence and case in group. They caught it. Free of symptoms for weeks but still in quarantine after 5 weeks in hotel room because testing positive. Another person has been there 2.5 months.

They are basically refusing to release any positive tested people from quarantine until they've had 2 negative tests.

I’d be interested to hear the mechanism for Isolation Support.

Hopefully it’s not too open to abuse. I suppose you need to supply a positive test? Actually maybe through work? No idea

I would have liked to see even more emphasis on other health care is going to vanish unless people stop acting like idiots

I would like to see some evidence that people are acting like idiots - we have very few cases pinpointed to things which are against the rules, and lots of assumptions.

If the problem is people not following the law, then the answer is not more restrictions since obviously that does nothing to stop those people who break the restrictions, they will ignore them regardless.

The answer is obviously enforcement of the existing rules. There's a depressing lack of information on why particular rules and measures are made, and a continuous "it's got to be more strict, because you're not following the current strictness" which is actually means every individual continues to get to blame other people whatever they've done, it's quite the opposite messaging to community responsibility.

We need facts on why measures are needed, why the existing measures which were modeled/planned not to lead to cases doubling every week have failed - if it's people "not following the rules" where's the evidence? If it's the modelling screwed up - what's the evidence?

@BigChocFrenzy May ask about autism please. Is it because people with ASD are less likely to be able to distance or that many are in care homes or is there a genetic factor? I have a child with ASD.

These cases hit the headlines:

"Bolton man partly responsible for coronavirus case surge after post-holiday pub crawl"

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/bolton-coronavirus-cases-pub-crawl-david-greenhalgh-b496988.html

However, what % of people are not isolating,
or leaving false contact details at pubs etc, not answering the phone, deliberately omitting people they've been in contact with .. ?

What % of cases do the rule-breakers account for ?

The govt often does not have the statistics we expect them to have, so they may be shooting blindly ..

or it may be that it is too difficult to enforce existing laws on the wilfully uncooperative, hence compensating by more laws for the law-abiding