Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 19

[BigChocFrenzy]

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 19

Welcome to thread 19 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Welcome to thread 18 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
Modelling real number of infections February to date
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists each Thursday
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data test positivity etc, DIY graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

It's a pity they couldn't mention that likely infection rates are much higher than reported at present, because so few with symptoms can get a test!

It's Boris's job, in the next day or two, to tell us what's actually going to happen and what the consequences will be of non compliance.

It's a pity they couldn't mention that likely infection rates are much higher than reported at present
They did; estimate of 70k currently infected and 6k new infections per day.

(And doubling every 7-8 days.)

Johnson (no, not that one, Bristol Maths Prof) thinks the doubling time is a bit of an over-estimate: mobile.twitter.com/BristOliver/status/1307989979860262913

(Doubling every week would be 10.4% daily growth rate, which is outside the latest SAGE range of 2%-7%)

@IloveJKRowling re A and E being overwhelmed. I’ve mentioned before that just as lockdown happened my youngest DC (5) was quite unwell. He had a temperature of 42 which wasn’t going down. I rang my GP ( took ages) who basically said I need to see him but can’t. You can try 111 but you won’t get through ( this was true as I’d been trying for hours), don’t ring 999 as there are no ambulances for hours. Best bet is to drive to hospital but huge waits there and difficult as he has a temperature ( actually this wasn’t true it turns out and was a dangerous message to be giving out!).

Anyway all ended up OK in the end but it really shocked and frightened me because - as you say - I’d never experienced not being able to easily access healthcare, particularly for a child.

[quote MRex]I wonder if anything will be said about the flu vaccine as well, to encourage vulnerable groups to take it up.

A new link for the next thread @BigChocFrenzy, I've just checked the flu report (zero confirmed cases, loads of rhinoviruses plus of course SARS-COV2) and I guess we will want to keep an eye on flu info too: www.gov.uk/government/statistics/weekly-national-flu-reports-2019-to-2020-season.

Also, I don't think you added the footfall maps as you were creating the new thread in a rush, sorry if I missed it:
www.google.com/covid19/mobility/.[/quote]
...
I asked on the last thread how many wanted the mobility link for the OP, but no takers

The flu link could be useful, but again I'd like feedback about anything that's not directly COVID stats

• if the OP gets too long, it takes longer to find the most important links

Feedback, anyone:
say if you want eiither / both links in the OP, please

OK @MRex yes, their figures weren't the positive tests figures, apologies. But I still fear they were an underestimate: Zoe app currently says 10,300 new cases a day. (Although I can't remember what date PVallance's graph stopped at?)

In BBC interview after, a scientist (Sir Mark Wolpert or the guy from Liverpool) mentioned the increasing numbers of women in the 20-40 age group being hospitalised, and that it's because they have more caring and public-facing roles. I wanted the interviewer to ask why that hadn't therefore been the case earlier in the year, but she didn't.

Has there been an announcement about a political announcement later? I expect one

No, none announced and it would now be later than any previous briefing.

Zoe is useful for trends, but it is not a representative sample of the population.
atm, I would still believe official figures over Zoe

@CoffeeandCroissant

Johnson (no, not that one, Bristol Maths Prof) thinks the doubling time is a bit of an over-estimate: mobile.twitter.com/BristOliver/status/1307989979860262913

(Doubling every week would be 10.4% daily growth rate, which is outside the latest SAGE range of 2%-7%)

.... The estimates of growth and R may have risen since the estimates were last published Or they may use slightly different methods of calculation /modelling

Data on hospital admissions shows doubling about every 8 days, so cases now doubling every 7 days is plausible,
given the average 8-day lag between infection inset and hospital

@BigChocFrenzy

Zoe is useful for trends, but it is not a representative sample of the population. atm, I would still believe official figures over Zoe

Thats a more polite way of saying that people who are obsessively going "but Zoe says" have completely forgotten that correlation does not equal causation.

infection onset

@sirfredfredgeorge

Whitty focused on explaining collective responsibility in a pandemic

I think this is a super risky strategy, 'cos there's no collective responsibility in other government policy - your right to drive and SUV to school at 30mph outweighs others right to the risk of others risks to car accidents, air pollution etc. Your right to a triple-locked pension outweighs others risks to low rates of benefits etc.

If the policy is collective responsibility, then it needs to be consistent, not just about something that is no risk.

I thought it was poor, and a waste of time and anxiety that the announcement caused in people expecting bad news.

I think that's a pretty weak argument TBH.

You've picked a couple of random examples that fit your narrative and ignored all the examples that don't.

There are tonnes of examples where collective responsibility already exists:

• My responsibility not to kill people through my own stupidity overrides my right to drink and drive

• My responsibility to provide a safety net to others in society overrides my right to keep all the money I make

• My responsibility not to give other people cancer via my own decisions overrides my right to smoke in public places

I could probably list hundreds of examples that show your narrative doesn't stand up.

Sky:

Hancock to update the HoC at 3pm today

BJ to address the HoC tomorrow at 12:30 pm after COBRA & Cabinet

Then we'll know whether the briefing today was to set the scene for more restrictions,
or just explaining why the Rule of 6 needs to be followed

Well, we should know, if BJ doesn't descend into piffle and confuse what the others said earlier !

How does 49,000 daily cases in October compare with the number of cases we are estimated to have had in April? I know the recorded number is far lower due to lack of testing.

Well if it doubles every 7 days, then that's 100,000 by around 21st October and it's hello March the rerun, this time with bad weather.

I think given Nicola Sturgeon’s briefing it seems very likely it’s some further restrictions. She strongly hinted that she expected at a least some to be 4 nations.

Whitty / Vallance Briefing Slides today

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachmentdata/file/919548/202009211_Briefing.pdf

@ColouringPencils

How does 49,000 daily cases in October compare with the number of cases we are estimated to have had in April? I know the recorded number is far lower due to lack of testing.

.... Estimates of peak cases vary according to modelling and input data, so range from 100k -200k, see link in OP

@littlestpogo

I think given Nicola Sturgeon’s briefing it seems very likely it’s some further restrictions. She strongly hinted that she expected at a least some to be 4 nations.

Agree littlestpogo NS is I think hoping all 4 Nations after the Cobra meeting go forward together. However she is her own woman and will do what she thinks is best for Scotland. Valance & Whitty like their no drama straight talking factual way of getting their information and explanations across.

Did I hear correctly that there was only marginally mutation of the virus?

yes and certainly no evidence that it is becoming less dangerous

@littlestpogo That does sound terrifying. I'm definitely equally as scared of lack of access to healthcare as I am of covid. At the start of lockdown I was constantly telling my kids not to climb too high etc.

@MarshaBradyo

They both did very well as expected.

Clear and calm.

My hope is enough people watched it.

Unfortunately you risk not many people watching it when you have the brief at a time when most are at work (Im just sneaking in a few mins to throw a butty down my neck now, I'll see if I can get round to watching it later thought Id come here for a quick summary as its always a good place to get the facts)

@MarshaBradyo

Fair point. Everyone here is fairly clued up on what the scenario is, which is why nothing that was said came as a big surprised to me. But I think a large chunk of the population isn't really following the narrative nearly as closely (I wish i wasn't tbh, is making me very stressed) so someone needs to tell it as it is.

I think quite telling that they are not sharing a platform with the PM for it. According to some things I've read on twitter that is on their insistence .So they said their bit, the PM will say what happens next, clearly both parties don't necessarily agree.