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Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 19

999 replies

BigChocFrenzy · 18/09/2020 11:11

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 19

Welcome to thread 19 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Welcome to thread 18 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
Modelling real number of infections February to date
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists each Thursday
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data test positivity etc, DIY graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment

Our STUDIES Corner

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

OP posts:
Thread gallery
53
Baaaahhhhh · 20/09/2020 12:54

Can BigChocFrenzy confirm whether in Germany school children generally don't go into school with coughs/colds even before Covid.

I think here in the UK we are very much a dose up/send in society, for all sorts of cultural or financial reasons, but I think in other countries children tend to stay home when even mildly unwell?

Augustbreeze · 20/09/2020 12:54

I agree bigchoc. This is the same scientific opinion as the article I posted yesterday - airborne is by far the most likely transmission route.

MRex · 20/09/2020 12:54

19th March was 632 UK new admissions. I'm going to do England only, because I can't be bothered to add up 4 regions nor take account of Wales's daft admissions. I started from 17th and tracked back weekly'
19th March 586
17th Sept 199 (+56)
10th Sept 143 (+74)
3rd Sept 69 (+0)
27th August 69 (+24)
20th August 45 (-15)
13th August 60 (+8)
6th August 52 (+7)
31st July 45 (-64)
23rd July 109
16th July 114
9th July 136
2nd July 149
25th June 256.

So, 31st July - 20th August was the low point, I think previously I identified 19th August as the lowest case day, which fits.
The lower age group makes it hard to make a direct link, but with the slow and wobbly rise I'd say we're more like 2 months from March figures, if nothing changes. But we know there will be more by way of increased lockdown and increased testing. So hopefully we won't get to that point.

BigChocFrenzy · 20/09/2020 13:00

"I was watching Dr H speaking a few days ago. He actually said when it's rampant in society and general circulation testing and tracing becomes less necessary. Basically hinted at pointless."

Directly contradicts the German experience in March-April:

Deaths here were so low, because cases were kept as low as possible
Serology studies confirmed that there were significantly fewer infections here

The main reason for low cases was of course Merkel's very early lockdown

However what also was a major factor was the extensive testing, track & trace systems

  • the original 20,000 of permanent local public / environmental health officers were massively boosted by bringing in local civil service officers of all unrelated specialities (e.g. transport) and then thousands of Uni students

As cases rocketed, the public health authorities said they could not keep up with t&t and at peak estimated they were probably only able to find 1/10 of contacts,
but they concentrated on possible superspreader events - care homes, hospitals, large workplaces etc during lockldown - and also people\ with more serious symptoms, who were likely to have shed more virus.

Despite missing a lot of contacts, they still kept down the number of cases and hence deaths

PHE gave up on t&t in March because of lack of manpower & test capcity - later evidence to the HoC was that they only had capacity to trace about 50 cases
Hence the spin at one time that it was only necessary for "developing countries"

OP posts:
itsgettingweird · 20/09/2020 13:04

Thanks for that MRex excellent visual of data. It's easy to forget we had high hospitals admissions still right after all the opening up phase.
It's really helpful to have a reminder of PST raw data which we know is as accurate as we are going to get.

Cornettoninja · 20/09/2020 13:05

I don’t really understand why the track and tracers were required to be qualified HCP’s (at least that’s my understanding from seeing a recruitment advert).

I understand that people would likely have medical questions but could it not run like NHS direct with lower level call handlers dealing with the majority of initial calls and escalating to a smaller team of HCP’s if necessary?

Baaaahhhhh · 20/09/2020 13:05

Is anyone still in doubt about SD though. This has been the message throughout, hence all the bloody ugly lines and signs around town and in shops and cafes. I think mask introduction made people less wary of space, but it is still very apparent around and about.

In reply to school handling of outbreaks, private v. State. I would heavily dispute that parents in private sector are sending children in unwell. In fact completely the opposite. They tend to have their own medical staff, who monitor children and send home as appropriate. Most parents wfh anyway. Those with mild symptoms asked to wear masks. Our school contact traced families when there was a confirmed case, so only those in close contact asked to isolate. Full educational provision at home, so no reason to send in when you have symptoms, or when you have been asked to isolate.

Keepdistance · 20/09/2020 13:10

Judging by 20% only isolating when they should it's more likely only 20% of parents tested their kids for cough or temp so actual symptoms were about 5x higher. Especially if cough or temp started at the weekend...

BigChocFrenzy · 20/09/2020 13:13

@Baaaahhhhh

Can BigChocFrenzy confirm whether in Germany school children generally don't go into school with coughs/colds even before Covid.

I think here in the UK we are very much a dose up/send in society, for all sorts of cultural or financial reasons, but I think in other countries children tend to stay home when even mildly unwell?

... Both schools and workplaces would normally expect people to come in with mild sniffles, but tend to discourage people coming in with a stinking cold, or a fever

At work, it is not considered a "good work ethic" to come in with worse than non-feverish colds, just stupid and inconsiderate
Rarely a culture of presenteeism anywhere, so that is reflected in the attitude of schools
afaik, absenteesim is not part of a school's assessment and there are no school league tables anyway.

Note:
Exceptions to sick policy are some food processing plants, staffed by mostly non-unionised immigrant workers, who have said they were sometimes pressured to come in when unwell.
These are where a couple of severe Covid outbreaks have happened, as well as several lesser ones; hence massive fines and much tighter enforcement of (existing) workers' rights, as well as health & safety rules

OP posts:
MRex · 20/09/2020 13:17

I can't tell but notice, having just done that review, that the spreadsheet case volume doesn't match the summary, there are not 143 in the spreadsheet.
21 admissions Weds
45 inpatient diagnosis
58 admissions Tues
67 discharges.
Any ideas? People arriving at the hospital but never being admitted?

The good news is that the spreadsheet figures are lower.

Prokupatuscrakedatus · 20/09/2020 13:17

The slogan here (Germany / Berlin) is AHA (which as a word is an exclamation of suprised understanding) which translates as
Abstand (SD) - Händewaschen (wash hands) - Alltagsmaske (covering).

And yes - more children are kept at home - there is no attendance percentage to be aimed for and there are 10 days (2 parents = 20 day) payed parental sick leave if your child is ill and children can be left at home alone with an emergency contact (neighbour f. ex.) from an earlier age.

BigChocFrenzy · 20/09/2020 13:18

"Is anyone still in doubt about SD though."

There seem to be quite a number who think it is (no longer) important, because of the emphasis in official messages
Handwashing was seized on from the start

Handwashing is pushed so much by government & others because it has v little affect on work, school, the leisure & hospitality sectors compared to 1.5 or 2m SD

OP posts:
BigChocFrenzy · 20/09/2020 13:20

@Prokupatuscrakedatus

The slogan here (Germany / Berlin) is AHA (which as a word is an exclamation of suprised understanding) which translates as Abstand (SD) - Händewaschen (wash hands) - Alltagsmaske (covering).

And yes - more children are kept at home - there is no attendance percentage to be aimed for and there are 10 days (2 parents = 20 day) payed parental sick leave if your child is ill and children can be left at home alone with an emergency contact (neighbour f. ex.) from an earlier age.

... Yes, I agree the "AHA" slogan which has space first, nails it
OP posts:
BigChocFrenzy · 20/09/2020 13:25

"The lower age group makes it hard to make a direct link, but with the slow and wobbly rise I'd say we're more like 2 months from March figures, if nothing changes.
But we know there will be more by way of increased lockdown and increased testing. So hopefully we won't get to that point."

I agree with this assessment, Mrex

OP posts:
Augustbreeze · 20/09/2020 13:26

Just thinking, shouldn't supermarkets be reinstating counting people in and out and one way systems? Are they doing this again in current "lockdown" areas?

Or is the number of known outbreaks in shops so small (non-existent?) that this doesn't matter?

Augustbreeze · 20/09/2020 13:29

To be fair @Keepdistance it was 20% only completely isolating when they should have been. This points to the fact that for many, it all depends on how difficult it is for them to isolate completely.

Food/medicine/work/no garden for kids, etc.

So I'd guess a lot depends on how difficult it is for parents to get their children tested. Unfortunately we know the current answer to this in many regions!

GetAMoveOnTroodon · 20/09/2020 13:31

@Augustbreeze

Just thinking, shouldn't supermarkets be reinstating counting people in and out and one way systems? Are they doing this again in current "lockdown" areas?

Or is the number of known outbreaks in shops so small (non-existent?) that this doesn't matter?

I’m in the NW so our local measures come in on Tuesday. The supermarkets here have brought back the barriers and counting this weekend
MRex · 20/09/2020 13:39

They marked people risk as not isolating if they went for a test too, don't forget that little gem!

MRex · 20/09/2020 13:39

*down not risk

CoffeeandCroissant · 20/09/2020 14:07

Update from the Zoe App chap.

Rates from our daily survey show steady increases with estimated new cases nationally now over 9600 outpacing government confirmed cases and R of 1.4 again with North-West being worst hit.
mobile.twitter.com/timspector/status/1307561686052864002

TheSunIsStillShining · 20/09/2020 15:25

[quote Reastie]@littlestpogo interesting re state and private schools. I actually wondered the opposite, that private schools could fare badly. Dd is at private school and they are trying to offer a very normal experience compared to friends with children at state school, presumably to justify the fees and manage pressure from entitled parents. Many parents ignoring most measures because they feel they have a right to things because of how much they pay.[/quote]
This.
Private school also, but not sending kid in. The lack of help is infuriating, and they say they want to help, but do nothing as they are "overwhelmed" by keeping up the normal(ish) attending students.
So it's not just that we are paying to keep the place for after covid, but we they are not even helping us maintain a good standard in home ed. I'm beyond infuriated.
(up until now I've been a very big fan of our school, but have been so let down)

Choconuttolata · 20/09/2020 15:33

I don't know if anyone has already posted this here, but I found the first 20 minutes of program very interesting re: cases, hospital admissions, deaths and also PCR testing and positive results Vs actual cases.

www.cebm.net/covid-19/when-is-covid-covid/

cologne4711 · 20/09/2020 15:36

Just thinking, shouldn't supermarkets be reinstating counting people in and out and one way systems

As far as I was aware, they never stopped, they were just letting more people in once we eased from 2m to 1m+ so the queues disappeared or were very short. I've not been in anywhere that was really crowded, so I assume people are getting their food online or by click and collect.

However, Morrisons have apparently said that they are reinstating, so they obviously did stop.

MRex · 20/09/2020 15:37

I hope supermarkets are planning to reintroduce some level of quota on popular items soon. Better to do it before people get silly.

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