Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 19

[BigChocFrenzy]

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 19

Welcome to thread 19 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Welcome to thread 18 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
Modelling real number of infections February to date
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists each Thursday
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data test positivity etc, DIY graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

I've noticed pasta and loo roll starting to sell out quickly again.

Think we will be ok for a while as I had to buy a 24 pack due to what was left - for just ds and I!

That's about a months worth at least!

@wheresmymojo there is a covid case in Winchester ICU, in case that is close to you. How soon to retreat depends on how long you can stand it. Personally I wouldnt yet in your area, I would in Bolton.

The virus is having very different impacts on different areas. The South West has done well ( and another study in the studies thread suggesting vitamin D may be protective) but so have, say, Colchester and Ipswich.

Supermarkets near me mostly dropped any restrictions, havent been near one recently though.

The virus is having very different impacts on different areas

Are there any wealthy areas with low levels of obesity/metabolic disorder that are performing badly?

3899 cases today for the UK.

@Bercows

3899 cases today for the UK.

Last Sunday was 3330 I think. With a 'drop' on the Monday.

@Yummyoldbag is it this spreadsheet?

www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2020/09/Covid-Publication-10-09-2020.xlsx

I can only see hospital trust data rather than actual hospitals? Am I looking in the right place?

And 18 deaths, which means the number of deaths this last week had almost doubled from the previous.
Last three weeks have gone:
52
75
150

So x1.5, then x2
It had been falling (as far as we could tell) before that. This is looking ominous.

Confirmed case at my school. Staff member. One other now has to SI.

No baby showers, wild parties or irresponsible staffroom use!

@Piggywaspushed

Confirmed case at my school. Staff member. One other now has to SI.

No baby showers, wild parties or irresponsible staffroom use!

Is it just 2 members of staff that need to isolate?

Yes. Got off lightly there.

@Cornettoninja
Yes there are two tiers of t&t staff
Non clinical and also clinical - former deal with random people and latter deal with “complex cases” eg in schools and workplaces.

"Are there any wealthy areas with low levels of obesity/metabolic disorder that are performing badly?"

Give me a list and I'll take a look. It's easy to find the areas of high deprivation, google not so helpful with low.

@Piggywaspushed

Yes. Got off lightly there.

I really hope it stays like that. My DS came out of school the other day telling me one of his friends, the one he sits next to in class, had to be sent home due to coughing & high temp.

There is a nasty cold (we've got it!) doing the rounds but still a bit concerned that we may end up being told to isolate him - especially knowing that until the child gets his result then all the other pupils/staff in school are going about as normal.

Fortunately this was a very quick turnaround as it's a key worker priority test.

My colleague has no symptoms at all! She took her baby as she was coughing. They did her while she was there. .. baby came back negative... if my friend hadn't been tested she would be back at work and spreading (possibly)... food for thought!

Any Zoe ap users who can tell me if a quoted figure elsewhere of 1 in 200 with long covid is accurate - and how many people stop using the ap?

@alreadytaken I had tried, we have:

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/deathsinvolvingcovid19bylocalareaanddeprivation

Which shows individual deprivation is hugely relevant to deaths (almost may just be comorbidities being so linked to poverty) but that's not regions.

This has lists of deprivation on various orders, at different levels:
www.gov.uk/government/statistics/english-indices-of-deprivation-2019

But I've not done the work to decide how to put it together to decide what "doing well" means.

@alreadytaken - use this?

www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2011/mar/29/indices-multiple-deprivation-poverty-england

Thanks @Frazzled2207. It did strike me as daft when I saw the vacancy advert.

In that case though, there’s no reason we can’t have an effective track and trace is there? It doesn’t require anything particularly specialist to phone through lists of people but then the engagement has to be there.

Maybe just a table listing all domains of deprivation with rankings, plus cases and deaths... Then we'll all have a look and see what patterns we can spot?

@alreadytaken

"Are there any wealthy areas with low levels of obesity/metabolic disorder that are performing badly?"

Give me a list and I'll take a look. It's easy to find the areas of high deprivation, google not so helpful with low.

When I looked at PHE surveillance the other week it seemed to indicate the highest cases were lowest deprivation and highest wealth. The other 3 were in the middle

will look after dinner.

Madrid hospitals being overwhelmed www.eldiario.es/madrid/hospitales-madrid-acercan-abismo-18-ocupacion-superior-90_1_6231636.html

A friend's uncle passed away this week after six weeks in ITU. It seems wrong he won't count as a Covid case because his positive test was more than 28 weeks ago. I also think this has made people more flippant because numbers are suppressed using this method.

I think there are lots of areas of high deprivation in the south west that are actually doing very well.

I remember a report recently that was classifying deprivation in 3 ways, I think one was income, one education and the other housing but I might have got that wrong. The place with the highest scores in all 3 sections was Torbay which admittedly had an early hit but has done done well since.

@Baaaahhhhh at dds private school they are actively encouraging children with symptoms but not the 3 required for a test to come into school. Most parents work, many not from home. Children ARE being dosed up with calpol and being sent in unwell because parents have made a decision their children don’t have covid.