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Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 19

999 replies

BigChocFrenzy · 18/09/2020 11:11

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 19

Welcome to thread 19 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Welcome to thread 18 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
Modelling real number of infections February to date
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists each Thursday
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data test positivity etc, DIY graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment

Our STUDIES Corner

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

OP posts:
Thread gallery
53
MRex · 20/09/2020 10:29

The test and trace service can contact the school over the weekend and the school should then help to contact families.

5 days post infection is roughly when most people who will get symptoms get them, butt infectivity can start from a day before symptoms, so symptoms-to-result needs to ideally be 4 days max.

wheresmymojo · 20/09/2020 10:32

Can I ask - I put myself into a voluntary lockdown about 2-3 weeks before actual lockdown.

I'm not particularly concerned about the risk of dying which is small (am 38 but obese, I think my COVID age was about 50).

I am concerned about feeling dreadful for 3 weeks (self employed and already badly financially hit) and long COVID.

So...I realise it will vary a lot from person to person and that's fine, just trying to get a sense...

What number out of 100k in your local area will make you concerned enough to stop everything but essentials (work, groceries, medical)?

wheresmymojo · 20/09/2020 10:34

That first sentence doesn't make sense!

*I put myself into a sort of voluntary lockdown about 2-3 weeks before official lockdown. Can I ask did anyone else do similar and will you be doing the same again (and if so, when)?

Am I right in thinking we're about where we were 3 weeks before lockdown now? Sort of taking a very rough estimation of what we think the real case numbers were then?

Firefliess · 20/09/2020 10:47

@wheresmymojo - I don't think we're quite there yet. Look at the hospital admissions rather than diagnosed cases if you want to compare rates to March. We were only testing international travellers and hospital admissions back then. Estimated cases got up to about 100,000 a day by mid March. Estimated cases now according to the ONS are about a tenth of that I think. So 10 weeks away if they go on doubling every week (hopefully they won't)

IloveJKRowling · 20/09/2020 10:47

Sorry, I wasn't very clear, it was 7 days from symptoms to result. 5 of which were school days, but lots of kids do weekend activities mixing with different cohorts so actually these two days would have been possibly the worst in terms of super spreading.

Had DD2 been positive.

I was assuming the 5 school days to be the worst as all we're doing is school (not mixing otherwise) but of course that's not true for most.

IloveJKRowling · 20/09/2020 10:49

Christina Pagel says we'll be at 18th March hospital admission numbers by next weekend. mobile.twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1307039298827571202

Since testing is broken I can't see any reason there will be a slow to this.

Reastie · 20/09/2020 10:51

@littlestpogo interesting re state and private schools. I actually wondered the opposite, that private schools could fare badly. Dd is at private school and they are trying to offer a very normal experience compared to friends with children at state school, presumably to justify the fees and manage pressure from entitled parents. Many parents ignoring most measures because they feel they have a right to things because of how much they pay.

wheresmymojo · 20/09/2020 10:55

@IloveJKRowling

Christina Pagel says we'll be at 18th March hospital admission numbers by next weekend. mobile.twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1307039298827571202

Since testing is broken I can't see any reason there will be a slow to this.

That's useful to know.

I guess the thing is I have case numbers per 100k for my local area thanks to littleowl's wonderful COVID messenger which I've also shared with friends this morning.

No idea how to check hospital admissions locally in mid-March and now?

And my area (Hampshire) is much lower risk than the UK average. We're only at about 6.4 cases per 100k so the UK hospitalisations mainly driven by other areas isn't representative of the risk levels here IYSWIM.

Anecdotally I believe there's 1 COVID case (or there was about a week ago) in our local big hospital (Basingstoke).

IloveJKRowling · 20/09/2020 11:16

littleowl's covid messenger is brilliant - but it's only as good as the data in.

Given it took 7 days for me to get DD2s result, I wouldn't trust the data to be an accurate representation of what is happening.

Look at hospital admissions locally if you can find the data.

IloveJKRowling · 20/09/2020 11:18

Wouldn't the smaller class sizes in private have some protective effect?

walksen · 20/09/2020 11:24

"Estimated cases now according to the ONS are about a tenth of that I think. So 10 weeks away if they go on doubling every week (hopefully they won't)"

I'd onsvis sayi g saying 10k a week which is doubling every 7 or 8 days then how will it take 10 weeks to get up to a hundred k?

Surely we would pass a hundred cases a day after in around a month?

walksen · 20/09/2020 11:24

Sorry 100k cases a day

PrayingandHoping · 20/09/2020 11:27

@IloveJKRowling to some extent however many are in very old not built for purpose buildings (think 100s of years old) that are v small rooms and rabbit warren corridors

Firefliess · 20/09/2020 11:30

@walksen You are right and I am won't. My maths brain has clearly not woken up yet today. 10k gets to 100k in about 3.5 weeks if it doubles every week not 10 weeks. Which would mean we reach it by mid October.

Yummyoldbag · 20/09/2020 11:32

Hospital admission data here. Sorry I could not open spreadsheet on my phone but you can search for your local hospital. Remember it counts admission due to Covid and admissions who are found to have COVID.

lonelyplanet · 20/09/2020 11:44

IloveJKRowling "5 DAYS - if DD2 had been positive her close contacts would be symptomatic - statistically speaking - before the school would be notified and they were told to isolate. At this point, there is almost no point to testing, as contact tracing kicks in too late to prevent spread."

As I mentioned up thread this is exactly what has happened in my school. A Child was last in school last Friday, positive test results came end of this Friday. I'm now ill and have probably been unknowingly infecting my class. Lots of children have been in and out of school this week with mild illnesses (could be covid we'll never know) also potentially infecting others. The testing system is not fit for purpose.

EducatingArti · 20/09/2020 11:44

@sirfredfredgeorge

I know Zoe isn't official guidance but I still think it shows that symptoms in children are nowhere near as clear as the official guidance suggests and I can understand why schools and parents are wanting tests.

Except it doesn't, Zoe data just shows the symptoms that presented in before a positive test, that is different to COVID symptoms, because there is no testing in the Zoe data for other respiratory illnesses, despite the fact a child could have one at the same time. Some children spending 20 weeks of the year with respiratory illness symptoms (typically the 'common cold' of course)

Zoe data is observational, useful, but not definitive, there's a reason none of the other symptoms have made it on to a requirement to test.

I think it is not so likely that children will have another virus at the same time as Covid. It was the Zoe research that got the loss of taste and smell as one of the main symptoms!
PrayingandHoping · 20/09/2020 11:48

@Yummyoldbag that sounds really interesting. I've only seen it broken down to hospital trust. Have u got a link?

IHeartKingThistle · 20/09/2020 11:55

@Hmmph if a positive test comes on a Friday night you email the Head. Trust me, school staff are on their work emails at the weekends at the moment!

EducatingArti · 20/09/2020 12:01

I agree with everyone that has said that lack of tests is the problem.

itsgettingweird · 20/09/2020 12:13

Interesting that there's been some scientist and commentators predicting a rise to March levels mid October.

That is when this 2 week national lockdown has been handed about being put into place.

Although again it's all speculation based on what we know is less than perfect data it does all seem to fit on analysis and speculation.

Yummyoldbag · 20/09/2020 12:31

Sorry I meant to put hospital data link on last post. Lots of interesting stuff there. Once you have worked out what number your local hospital is it will be the same across most of the spreadsheets.
www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/

Augustbreeze · 20/09/2020 12:31

The symptoms the Zoe app and research has picked up mirror the WHO symptom list.

In many countries you are legally obliged to get a test for cold symptoms and gastric ones.

BigChocFrenzy · 20/09/2020 12:42

Hands, face, space? Johnson's Covid message has got priorities wrong, scientists warn

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/19/scientists-criticise-uks-hands-face-space-campaign-to-control-covid-19-coronavirus

The latest drive to help halt the spread of Covid-19 has been criticised by senior scientists for placing insufficient emphasis on the issues of ventilation and the need to stay apart from others.

They say the government’s “hands, face, space” campaign stresses handwashing and the wearing of masks as key factors in controlling coronavirus transmission,
while the need to keep apart has been downplayed, despite it being the single critical factor involved in the spread of Covid-19.

“As long as people keep emphasising handwashing over aerosol transmission and ventilationn*, you are not going to control this pandemic,”
virologist Julian Tang, of Leicester Royal Infirmary, told the Observer.

He pointed to studies that suggest contact is the cause of transmission of the Covid-19 virus in only about 20% of cases
while aerosol transmission, often in poorly ventilated rooms, accounted for the rest.
< in Germany I've heard estimaates that only 10% of infections are from surfaces of any kind >

He was backed by the anthropologist Jennifer Cole, at Royal Holloway, University of London, who said
the government’s recommendations had been placed in the wrong order.

“Space is the largest mitigating factor in the spread of Covid-19, indoors or outdoors.

Wearing a face covering does not make it entirely safe to go within 2 metres of others;
keeping your distance is still the best strategy,”
she said.
“Handwashing is important, but surface transmission plays a much smaller role than exhaled droplets,
so it is odd that ‘hands’ has been listed first.”

OP posts:
BigChocFrenzy · 20/09/2020 12:45

Better would be "SPACE, hands, face"
and have space in capitals to emphasise it

OP posts:
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