Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 19

[BigChocFrenzy]

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 19

Welcome to thread 19 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Welcome to thread 18 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
Modelling real number of infections February to date
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists each Thursday
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data test positivity etc, DIY graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

@IloveJKRowling my friends reporting it on their own social media (and in person to me) is proof enough to me. What hidden agenda do you think they have exactly

And I said in my original post I actually really dislike the daily fail. But they are reporting something that I know for a fact is happening.

Every test taken by someone who shouldn't be having one IS a problem that needs to be addressed.

That is not taking away from irresponsible parents giving their child calpol to mask a covid symptom and sending them into school. Any child with Covid symptoms needs to be kept home and take a test.

Praying there were definitely a lot of children testing due to increase in colds here too

Most people I know cannot afford to take 5 days off work every time their child becomes ill with a fever, or a cough.

People who're trying to get a test without symptoms may exist, but they will be outnumbered by those who have / whose children have covid symptoms who don't bother because they can't afford to take a week off. And the latter group will not be posting on social media about it. They will be lying and hiding it.

And, so covid spreads.

I've done the right thing, but if my DD2s test had been positive, her close contacts (who actually physically touch her in school - as she's little) will have been in school for FIVE DAYS mixing and spreading the disease.

The test system needs to be robust enough to deal with the borderline cases. In Germany close contacts of positive tests get tested even when well. They're not prancing about blaming all the 'worried well' - they have a system which will actually function to reduce coronavirus transmission.

Ours won't.

If we start restricting tests, increasing the temperature threshold, or change the cough criteria, then we'll miss more coronavirus cases. In children, particularly, as they get it mildly (the most reassuring thing about DD2s cold is that she was iller than me.... I figured if it was covid it'd be the other way around).

How are parents supposed to distinguish between fever, cough = not covid and fever, cough = covid? If we can distinguish on symptoms why bother with tests at all?

DD2 was snotty for a while before the fever began, I didn't try and get a test then, only once she was clearly feverish did I think 'oh bloody hell, I'm going to have to get a test'. Had I known how soul destroying and difficult it was going to be I might have thought twice.

@Firefliess - sorry, yes, I misread it.
A few, a hundred, even a thousand cases here or there shouldn't be enough to skew positivity rate when we have 200k tests every day.

Words fail me with this:

www.warringtonguardian.co.uk/news/18731840.coronavirus-testing-facility-spire-cheshire-hospital/
Coronavirus testing facility at Spire Cheshire Hospital

If it were possible to find a location within the boundaries of the borough which was less accessible to anyone without a car and financially strapped you'd struggle to identify it.

Its in the south of the town (the more affluent side), in a very rural location (its on a main a road on the way to the motorway but theres nothing else around it for some. distance). Its impossible to walk to from just about anywhere, its a long walk even from the nearest village. And theres absolutely no public transport that anywhere at all near it. I think im right in saying the nearest bus route is several miles away so not seriously feasible in any way. Theres nothing near it but fields.

I mean it is good there is going to be more testing facilities in the town, but this site? A private hospital? It just smacks of everything this decision shouldnt be focused on.

We know who is most vulnerable to covid and least able to get a test and most likely to be unable to afford to isolate...

@IloveJKRowling if your child has a cough you can't possibly know the difference. You take a test and you are absolutely right for doing so

Being told to take a test purely for a snotty nose and a sore throat is not the right thing to do.

That Daily Mail article is ridiculous.

I’m one of “those parents” who tested their child with a cold.

My child had a temperature with his cold - before the main cold symptoms kicked in as well. He was 38.3. This is what normally happens to him and many other children when they get colds. Last year, I would have given him some Calpol and sent him off to school. This year, we all had to stay home for days tying him tested and waiting for the results. Our children couldn’t go to school, we couldn't go to work and also had to cancel other important appointments too. I can assure you this wasn’t for fun. And next time I think he has a cold, I might be tempted not to get the thermometer out. No doubt like the rest of his class who had the cold as well. Not only was the process stressful and drawn out and caused massive disruption to our lives, but now I feel like we are being belittled for doing the right thing.

Children get coughs, lose taste and smell and get temperatures with colds. The small % of positive tests doesn’t mean they are unnecessary tests. It means that Covid symptoms aren’t specific to Covid. If they were we would need tests.

And the article has a stupid table with symptoms claiming colds don’t lead to temperatures or bad coughs which is a load of nonsense.

Children get coughs, lose taste and smell and get temperatures with colds. The small % of positive tests doesn’t mean they are unnecessary tests. It means that Covid symptoms aren’t specific to Covid. If they were we wouldn’t need tests.

^sorry, for the massive typo!

Being told to take a test purely for a snotty nose and a sore throat is not the right thing to do.

Don't believe anyone's doing this. Have you met 3,4,5 year olds? How many just get a sore throat and snotty nose with a cold? They get fevers. And coughs. With everything.

What a weird cold to only have such specific symptoms.

Send children back to crowded germ factories - covid symptoms rise.

Testing fails (predictably) and untested covid cases are free to mingle in schools and at after school clubs and at playgrounds and restaurants and shops for 5 days.

Richard E Grant just said at Rome airport you get tested for covid with a result in half an hour.

Why not blame the government for sending kids back in a way which would send all disease through the roof, and also having a piss poor testing system.

I cannot believe the media is complicit in this disgusting shaming of the british public.

@Hmmph I don't think that article is aimed at you. Your child had potential symptoms

That article is aimed at just a snotty nose and a sore throat

You were right to test

@IloveJKRowling yes... used to work in a nursery. I've met plenty. And plenty of kids just get a snotty nose and no temp.

And the kids I've referred to that have been off school had no cough, temp etc. Just a snotty nose.

Why can Rome airport test all passengers with a result in half an hour

yet

our system can't cope with schools going back?

Why send schools back without masks or SD if the testing system can't cope?

Meanwhile all the positive covid contacts are running around having fun and infecting other people. THIS is what we should be focused on.

5 DAYS - if DD2 had been positive her close contacts would be symptomatic - statistically speaking - before the school would be notified and they were told to isolate.

At this point, there is almost no point to testing, as contact tracing kicks in too late to prevent spread.

5 DAYS - if DD2 had been positive her close contacts would be symptomatic - statistically speaking - before the school would be notified and they were told to isolate. At this point, there is almost no point to testing, as contact tracing kicks in too late to prevent spread.

Sorry to quote myself - but THIS is what we should be discussing. There is virtually no point to testing at all, and testing will not be doing what we need it to, if it takes 7 days from symptoms to result.

We won't be reducing spread at all because it's all too late.

5 days in school but over the weekend presumably after school clubs etc..... so 7 days mixing before contact tracing starts... possibly some delay there too.

@Mrex. No, DSS's school alone is not going to make a big impact on the stats. But if these machines become common (and I think they will) then the government will need to find ways of getting those who use them to report their figures, or our national data will become inadequate.

On a positive note, DSis has just booked a test for her DS who has a snotty nose with temperature and says she got one no problems. I do hope they are getting on top of the testing.

This is parents trying to do the right thing. My DS has a snifffy nose and sneezing. He normally gets a temperature and bad cough at every cold, loads of kids do. I’m dreading if he gets a cough as then I will have to refer. However I will go through a GP even though I don’t really want to waste their time, and just get another opinion on a test even if he develops a cough.

If we have to get a test it will be really awkward, I know his symptoms aren’t very clear Covid but I am also a responsible person who would not want to send him to school coughing over every child and he would be sent home for a test anyway.

Whatever it is, it is a failure of management from top down. This should have been anticipated pre school, and clear guidelines set. In Germany their criteria is pretty clear, temperatures which last under two days are referred to a GP to decide in children, and a cough doesn’t mean automatically they need a test.

Nurotrash, I'm baffled by the gastric side!

Apparently there are a few different ways it can affect and gastric is one way?

I'm sure I had it back in march, firstly I had dioreha, stomach pain, about 4 days later incredibly strong tingling in my nose, few sneezes, nothing major followed by two days of incredible fatigue then... Lastly loss of taste and smell.
I kept waiting for things to progress... That was it.
I have 2 dc neither showed symptoms nor did dh.

Many people at the time also said they had roughly the same symptoms.
Gastric, diorehia, it took months for loss of smell and taste to be even recognised.

I find this lag between symptoms and them being listed, really annoying!

Had I known how soul destroying and difficult it was going to be I might have thought twice. this also worries me. There have been Covid + cases in three local schools near me now. With all the palaver of testing I worry parents will be put off.

@Firefliess the other problem with this of course is yet again the disparity that will increase between state and private. So kids in private schools will end up missing far less school time ( and will do anyway because did smaller classes and most likely parental work). Actually I’d love some stats on this in a few months comparing time off school for state pupils versus private.

I agree re the above argument - the anger should be directed at the government for the lack of testing capacity. When she was challenged at the select committee Dido Harding’s ‘evidence’ for people testing without symptoms was from some of the testing sites when they’d asked people on exit and she couldnt give information as to how large that study would be. Anecdotally many test centres were encouraging other family members to take test ( or at least offering them). Also she didn’t say when this ‘survey’ had been done. I hope this isn’t the only evidence the government is sousing for its claims re people being tested without symptoms

@IloveJKRowling

5 DAYS - if DD2 had been positive her close contacts would be symptomatic - statistically speaking - before the school would be notified and they were told to isolate. At this point, there is almost no point to testing, as contact tracing kicks in too late to prevent spread.

Sorry to quote myself - but THIS is what we should be discussing. There is virtually no point to testing at all, and testing will not be doing what we need it to, if it takes 7 days from symptoms to result.

We won't be reducing spread at all because it's all too late.

I was watching Dr H speaking a few days ago. He actually said when it's rampant in society and general circulation testing and tracing becomes less necessary. Basically hinted at pointless. Probably for reasons you've mentioned.

It does back up what Jenny Harries said eight at the start of the daily briefings

I have a toddler, he's had slight snotty nose twice since the start of term and had had a much snottier nose at the end of August. No fevers, no coughs, no other symptoms, all over in a couple of days each time. Many of his little friends have had similar. It's going to be much harder for parents whose child throws a temperature for everything, but that's definitely not every child.

I've had two friends now asking if I thought they should get a test because of 37.5 or so temp for an hour the night of the flu vaccine - no!!! Loads of threads on here and facebook of people saying nursery / school requires a test despite no key symptoms, or they're getting a teenager tested twice before uni because the teenager went on holiday, people thinking sore throat is a symptom so they should get a test even though it's not listed as a symptom on its own etc.

5 days with contacts freely mixing is probably a “best case”. Several days to get a test+ a wait for the test + a wait fo results.

Then what happens if you receive a positive test for your child on a Friday night? I can’t contact my school at a weekend. It would be Monday morning before I could tell them and they could tell the families.

That's interesting re Germany not testing children with a fever that doesn't last long. DS when he was young used to get high fevers with a cold, but not for more than 12 hours. If Covid fevers last longer that would be a good way of reducing demand for testing to manageable levels.

Isn't it cart before horse?

With proper testing, on a rolling basis then tracing is workable.

Without testing yes it's pointless. So j harries was talking in tongues basically saying... We've fucked up so no point now.