Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 19

[BigChocFrenzy]

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 19

Welcome to thread 19 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Welcome to thread 18 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
Modelling real number of infections February to date
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists each Thursday
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data test positivity etc, DIY graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

@EducatingArti the official guidance is the same as adults..... temp, cough, taste.

Some schools are adding in their own symptoms which aren't official guidance from the DofE and some are insisting whole bubbles tested when one positive test comes back. This CANT continue!!

Then of course people must be lying when applying for the test, be had to apply you have to declare you have a cough, temp or loss of taste/smell

This has to be cracked down on

But Zoe says otherwise about symptoms in children. I think the official line is because of test shortages and trying not to confuse people.

@EducatingArti Zoe is not official guidance.

And to get a test u have to declare u have official symptoms

No you don't have to lie to get a test. I had a weird skin rash and read on Zoe that this could be considered the 4th symptom of Covid. When I applied for a test if firstly asked why I wanted one. I checked "I have Covid symptoms". Then on another page it asked if I had one of the 3 main symptoms and I checked "no". It still offered me a test and I didn't lie at all.

There seems to be a carrot as well as a stick though - £500 one off payment for low waged (=on universal credit?) So that should encourage people to get tests. You even wonder if people might be tempted to name friends as contacts who they know would appreciate £500 if it applies to contacts too. I think the combination of incentives and fines is probably the right way to go.

I think the biggest issue is still that people can't get tested and neither incentives nor fines can be given to people who can't get tests.
And people won't be prepared to turn their lives upside down for symptoms that probably aren't Covid if they're not able to find out for sure.

I know Zoe isn't official guidance but I still think it shows that symptoms in children are nowhere near as clear as the official guidance suggests and I can understand why schools and parents are wanting tests.

Lots of low wages don’t get UC. I hope it’s not limited that much.

Someone doing multiple zero hour contracts may not be entitled to sick pay from some of them, making the situation even more impossible. They may also not get UC. At this point in the crisis I wouldn’t imagine they could self isolate, especially if they’ve previously had to do so and are behind on rent.

Job insecurity in these types of jobs would problem prevent a lot of people falsely self isolating as well.

[quote PrayingandHoping]@EducatingArti

Stop this kind of stupid behaviour would help with the testing issue

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8751363/Covid-tests-chaos-blamed-mad-frenzy-parents-checks-children.html

I hate the daily fail but for once they are are right. This is happening all over.

Stop all the people having tests with zero Covid symptoms has to be priority [/quote]
I disagree. I think they have failed to appreciate that for a lot of children, having a cold = cough and temp.

I've had both my DC off school and nursery ill with colds since they went back. One twice. On all occasions, they had a cold which included a very mild temp (37.5 max), and a cough.

I didn't get them tested - the cough was intermittent and wet, and there have been no cases locally for a while. DC2 always gets a cough with a cold. However, I think it was borderline. If I wasn't WFH or if I was caring for an elderly relative or anything, i might have weighed it up differently.

Then of course people must be lying when applying for the test, be had to apply you have to declare you have a cough, temp or loss of taste/smell

In which case how on earth do the government have any numbers for these people? At what point are the people who lied on the test booking forms followed up and found to have been lying? They simply aren't.

There may be some schools requesting tests for symptoms other than the ones listed in the guidance, but going by posts on here there are also a number of schools saying it's perfectly fine for children to come in with a cough and no test when the cough is 'obviously' caused by a cold. This is not in the official guidance either.

Some schools are adding in their own symptoms which aren't official guidance from the DofE and some are insisting whole bubbles tested when one positive test comes back. This CANT continue!!

What is the evidence that this is happening? I have seen none. Dido Harding's said it but she has a vested interest in spreading this lie.

I can say, my experience of spending 4 days with screaming, unhappy children, glued to a computer, constantly refreshing. Finally getting some slots appear only to have gone by the time I clicked through. Then another 3 days while we wait for a test result.

There is no way I would do that unless I had to, and I KNOW other parents are bending the rules already to avoid it. Did their chest and back feel hot? Well, hmmm, maybe it was just 'warm'. I was told by my GP and by my DD2's school that I had to have a test. I took her temp with a thermometer and they told me her fever was sufficient. It was. It was SOOO tempting not to bother though. She had a fever for one day, no one would have known had I not told them. I could have lied so easily and just said she had a 'snotty nose'.

I have had one friend say to me 'you know DD2 gets a fever with everything so maybe you need to need to ensure it's a much higher fever before you test'.

Having a well child who wants to be in school off school with no schoolwork isolating (so you can't go for a walk or a bike ride, or to the park) and a child who was really ill only for a day and is bouncing off the walls - both of whom want to go out. It's not a picnic. Parents will avoid it wherever possible.

You CAN lie to get a test. Yes. You CAN also decide it's not possibly covid and not bother telling anyone your child had a fever for half a day.

Given the state of the system, I know which I think is more likely for desperate parents between a rock and a hard place.

@EducatingArti well that's a loophole that needs to be cracked down on. It clearly says on main page who is eligible for a test and what the symptoms are to make u so

The question you were asked should only be for those invited for routine because of the job or research. Not general public

conkers cross post, you said it more succinctly.

I am very cross people keep on trotting this out.

When are people going to learn not to fall for the lies of this government? Without the tiniest shred of evidence to support their lies.

@IloveJKRowling it's all over social media and described in the daily mail article

Ask around people with school age children and you will fine someone experiencing this

My friend's grandaughter is not allowed back in school as she has cold symptoms, no Covid, until she gets a negative test. I know another mother the same and she had to test ALL her children even though only one had a cold.

All have been tested. All negative. That's 4 wasted tests that could have been given to someone who actually needed them

Anecdotally I know a lot of children feeling under the weather who had a negative test.

@IloveJKRowling I am not listening to what the government have said about this. Tbh I haven't even heard a report of them saying this.

@IloveJKRowling
Agree 100%. I currently have a shitty cold. I KNOW it’s just my usual shitty cold, feels exactly the same as any other.
My sons have now got the sniffles. It’s almost certainly (and yes I suppose ALMOST is the key phrase here) what I’ve got and I’m not remotely worried about them having Covid at this time. Yet as they get colds slightly differently to me I know the chances of them coughing a bit or getting feverish the next couple of days are really high. What am in planning on doing? Sending them to school and hoping for the best. I just hope that any symptoms that do turn up happen at home and so they can be given calpol etc -
I have no intention of telling the school at this time though of course I realise there is a chance they could be sent home. Am so stressed about it all.

@GetAMoveOnTroodon

I wrote our policy for our company - it’s full pay for anyone who needs to self isolate for whatever reason (symptoms / track and trace) as long as you send me a copy of the text message. I absolutely don’t want anyone in work who might be a risk to everyone else! Our only exception is if you choose to go on holiday knowing you are going somewhere you have to quarantine on your return - then you have to use annual leave to cover the 2 weeks. We also paid everyone on furlough full pay too, as we didn’t want people worrying about money during a pandemic. I assumed far more businesses would be taking the same policy decisions, but I get the impression maybe not.

My DH company did the same from the beginning of furlough and currently for SI. His business has 250+ employees.

It should be available to all types of workers.
For the government to pay for people to isolate it would be a simple exercise to do via PAYE wage portal similar to Furlough input.
Hope the Government do pay for SI it would encourage people to SI knowing they won’t loose out financially to do the right thing.

I don't know how they're defining low incomes. Yes hopefully broader than being on UC as a lot of young people (without children) wouldn't be on it.

On a separate note, DSS's (private) school have just told us they have purchased their own Covid testing machine. It's one of these drw-ltd.com/samba-ii-sars-cov-2-test.html
The school has paid for the machine and will charge parents £56 if their child needs a test. The machine does the tests itself, no need to send to a lab. It's intended for those who can't access NHS tests currently. Not sure what I think about this - anything that helps more people get tests has got to be a good thing, but why isn't the government buying these machines for large state schools or colleges or just using them to increase overall NHS testing capacity? It's not quite as accurate as the lab testing, but an awful lot better than guessing on the basis of symptoms which is your only other option at present.

Also, does anyone know whether tests that are done in this kind of machine are included in the government's published data?

@Firefliess - a positive result would require reporting as a public health issue, and then retesting because the test is less reliable with more false positives. If you test a school of 1000 kids, you'll get 13 false positives. They'll probably be advised to isolate regardless because of the false negative risk. They will only go onto the stats after their PHE test.

it's all over social media and described in the daily mail article

Really high quality data then, and with no hidden agenda.

Thing is all the thousands of parents sending their kids into school sick won't be shouting from the rooftops about it on social media, will they? They know if anyone proves they're doing this deliberately they could be fined.

Have you seen the teachers (including one ECV) saying that they have 4 year olds coming in saying they've been given calpol that morning? (children are honest). And the teachers saying how many children they're having to send home for fevers etc?

Why is Dido Harding's / the fail's version more believable?

I know Zoe isn't official guidance but I still think it shows that symptoms in children are nowhere near as clear as the official guidance suggests and I can understand why schools and parents are wanting tests.

Except it doesn't, Zoe data just shows the symptoms that presented in before a positive test, that is different to COVID symptoms, because there is no testing in the Zoe data for other respiratory illnesses, despite the fact a child could have one at the same time. Some children spending 20 weeks of the year with respiratory illness symptoms (typically the 'common cold' of course)

Zoe data is observational, useful, but not definitive, there's a reason none of the other symptoms have made it on to a requirement to test.

One thing I'd bet good money on is that the number of people doing tests unnecessarily is far outweighed by those not bothering because the system's broken.

Not everyone can afford to stay home for 7 days every time their child gets slightly ill.

Re children's symptoms,

Adding gastric symptoms would have identified nearly all the children with CV infection.

And note the part about coughs:

Half of those who tested positive reported having symptoms.

Fever was the most common - reported by 21 of the 68 children who tested positive for coronavirus antibodies.
*
Cough was also common but less specific, being reported as commonly by children who tested negative as those who tested positive.*
*
Gastrointestinal symptoms - such as diarrhoea, vomiting and abdominal cramps - were reported by 13 of the 68 children who tested positive for antibodies, and appeared to be significantly associated with coronavirus infection.*
*
Loss of smell or taste was less common - reported by six of the children with antibodies.*

Adding gastrointestinal symptoms would have identified nearly all - 33 out of 34 or 97% - of the symptomatic cases, he explained.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/health-53983963

That's interesting @Mrex. The school are definitely seeing it as an alternative to NHS testing, so that kids (or staff) can get back to school if they test negative. The machine says it has 98.7% sensitivity and 100% specificity, so that should mean there aren't any false positives, but that it misses just over 1% of actual cases? I think that if they can't get a test probably more than 1% of parents would send a child who's had a cold with a temperature in to school so pragmaticly it's probably a good thing on balance.

But on the figures, if the school report the positive results but don't tell the government how many tests they do isn't that going to skew the positivity rate?