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Costello's tweet re Whitty & lockdown Now retracted *edited by MNHQ at OP's request*

476 replies

mac12 · 16/09/2020 23:09

Anyone heard anymore on this? Apparently amid the testing chaos, we’re now thought to be at 38,000 cases a day & CMO wants a 2 week national lockdown
twitter.com/globalhlthtwit/status/1306351773356118022?s=21

OP posts:
HesterShaw1 · 17/09/2020 19:27

I also mentioned the long game Oaktree.

Shall we see in a year to 18 months which country is in a better state? After all, we keep being told this isn't going away.

Are you telling me seriously you think that the UK's "plan" has not been driven by short termism and popular reaction?

(By the way, if you want people to debate productively and objectively with you, you might want to think about the tone you employ. You often sound very rude.)

Friendsoftheearth · 17/09/2020 19:28

oak It definitely was not a put down at all, I don't know your reasons, your background, and your feelings about Sweden might be perfectly valid and correct, and indeed next week Sweden could see thousands of new infections. We are just talking about the options.

We have limited options, narrowing as every day that passes.

Lockdown is a false safety net, it holds the virus at bay and the minute you open things up again, it goes on the rampage. I personally feel it is better to have low level contained virus running through, as Sweden have done, pref among the healthy and young and keep everything open. That is my view.

We haven't considered the colossal sacrifice and loss that is happening elsewhere during lockdown, not to mention the impact on the economy for decades to come.

opehlia made the point very well, children are losing everything at the moment, and this is grossly unfair to a sizeable volume of society that are at little or no risk. It is an enormous injustice, and one that will impact the future for many generations to come.

Personally I am with Sweden 100%, and you might find much of the older generation supports this stance as well. Many older people will tell you that they have had their youth, their lives and the best of many things, and if now they have to stay in for a while for their own benefit - it is something they are willing to do for their grandchildren and the young, after all no one actually wants to end up on a ICU covid ward, so it is in their best interests as well.

HesterShaw1 · 17/09/2020 19:31

And if you were questioning the point I made re preferring to be in Sweden than the UK at the moment....why yes I would.

Oaktree55 · 17/09/2020 19:41

@HesterShaw1 but you cannot compare countries in 18 months. It’s comparing apples and pears. Our economies are different, everything is different. That’s the whole crux of my argument. Comparing Sweden to a neighbour with a similar demographic and economy might be valid.

The U.K. will be far more affected due to the fact London is a global centre and our economy is based heavily on service industry.

I think the U.K. has done appallingly which is down to incompetence. I think most nations have reacted with a short term view yes because it’s a crisis for which we weren’t prepared. Asia has done better for many reasons one of which is they had testing capacity and previous experience with SARS. This is also why Germany has fared better they had the testing capability in place.

I don’t particularly want a debate and yes I’m direct but it’s because the Swedish argument is naive and not applicable to the U.K.

Friendsoftheearth · 17/09/2020 19:45

The swedish model could be tailor made for the UK, it is not all or nothing - black or white.

Why is the Swedish model naive? It has worked for them!

Oaktree55 · 17/09/2020 19:52

@Friendsoftheearth seriously I’m out of this debate. I’ve clearly set out the reasons. Single occupancy households etc etc are you going to restructure the whole of the U.K.

I also find your attitude that sticking sections of society away pretty abhorrent really. Who knows when there might be a vaccine or whether it will be even effective in certain groups. You’re suggesting putting millions of people away from Society indefinitely.

Testing and tracing is the only way forward. Immunity may not even last that long if it transpires this is similar to most other coronaviruses.

You don’t seem able to accept facts but blindly want to follow your misconceptions about what would happen if we followed Sweden.

Friendsoftheearth · 17/09/2020 20:02

I haven't suggested we lock away anyone, I have suggested we offer certain sections of society the opportunity to shield if they want to, fully supported in the peak!! If there is one. I am sorry you don't agree, but we can't all agree, and that is life.

Certain sections of society might be glad that they are cared for enough to be protected and looked after. It depends on your mindset doesn't it.

Ecosse · 17/09/2020 20:04

Absolutely @Friendsoftheearth, my DM is 86 and she thinks the whole thing is ludicrous- she feels strongly that she has had her life and has absolutely no desire to stop young people living theirs and destroy the economy.

She is happy to stay at home if it means her DC can keep their jobs and her DGC’s school can stay open. All of her friends feel the same way.

Oaktree55 · 17/09/2020 20:09

@Friendsoftheearth no it’s not a mindset issue it’s a simple maths issue. Take this for example.....

In terms of prevalence, in England the proportion of the population with hypertension increases from 5% of men and 1% of women aged 16 to 24 years, to 58% in men and women aged 65 to 74 years

You just are glibly suggesting ridiculously impractical ideas. Take any major city in the U.K. work out say a 30-40% infection rate then work out 5% of those needing hospital care.

It’s totally impractical to suggest keeping millions apart from society for periods of months (yes it would likely mean the whole Autumn/Winter) and contact with their families/healthcare etc etc just so life can continue as “normal”

mac12 · 17/09/2020 20:16

The whole Sweden argument is predicated on the belief that young people & children don’t suffer long term ill-health & complications. We know some children have complications & are hoping it’s a very small proportion & that further longer term issues don’t arise - as raised by Dr Tedros this week. Should such issues arise, we could find a Sweden style approach has been a reckless gamble taken on behalf of children who could not consent. Personally I’d rather take a more precautionary approach until we know more.

OP posts:
Ecosse · 17/09/2020 20:16

@Oaktree55

It’s not about being completely back to normal.

It doesn’t make any sense to keep people at home (not contributing to the economy) who are at zero or no risk of death or serious illness from the virus.

It makes much more sense to protect the individuals who are at high risk (we can tell quite accurately who these are), who should have their full wages funded by the government and be provided with food and medicine deliveries.

Ecosse · 17/09/2020 20:18

@mac12

‘Long covid’ does not exist. There are a very small number of individuals who suffer after-effects from Coronavirus- this is the same for every virus that has ever existed.

It is not something peculiar to covid.

Oaktree55 · 17/09/2020 20:22

@Ecosse Long Covid is being investigated and the Government has funded this. It’s estimated 10% of people suffer longer term effects and this is recognised by the WHO

Of course you know better

Ecosse · 17/09/2020 20:23

@Oaktree55

Less than 1% of people who have COVID end up with long-term symptoms.

scaevola · 17/09/2020 20:24

If long Covid does not exist, you'd better tell the BMJ! They will keep publishing articles about it.

www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3026

www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3218

www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3489

www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3202

(and more)

Oaktree55 · 17/09/2020 20:27

@ecosse It’s not 1% it’s far higher. It was 10% in a survey of people I read. Obviously this is known confirmed cases and will be lower if all cases were known.

Quartz2208 · 17/09/2020 20:57

The 10% is symptoms still after 3 weeks. I think the proportion will drop down (hard to say I guess as it still so new) but I would expect it to be around the 1-2% still having effects after a month.

But reading the articles the main one is fatigue - I have recovered in the past from glandular fever, swine flu and pleurisy and the recovery did take time. I think we do need to be realistic that for some people this is going to take time.

I think as a whole we tend to forget how nasty viruses can be - we see most of them as like the common cold, quick and easy to shake off. Or able we are able to take antibiotics and they will work (a problem we will undoubtedly face in the future)

Kaktus · 17/09/2020 20:59

I still had symptoms after 3 weeks. In fact I still had symptoms after 3 months. 6 months on I’m now completely recovered, thankfully. Some viruses do take time to recover from.

Quartz2208 · 17/09/2020 21:04

Katkus I think the majority of viruses do for some take time depending on how severe you get it. They are nasty things

Glad that you are completely recovered

Miraculous · 17/09/2020 21:05

@Quartz2208

Katkus I think the majority of viruses do for some take time depending on how severe you get it. They are nasty things

Glad that you are completely recovered

Yes I agree, I have a friend who was practically bedridden for 6 months after having the flu.
AlohaMolly · 17/09/2020 21:26

@EvilPea

It's pretty clear many have been ignoring the SD or they wouldnt have the colds to pass on to everyone else

My DD caught a cold in the school holidays, we had been to two places, she had been scrupulous with hand washing, distancing, mask wearing. I genuinely have no idea where the cold came from.

I know this isn’t the point, but DS caught a stomach bug in the middle of lockdown when we were literally only seeing sheep and cows Grin and I made him sanitise his 4 year old hands every time he touched something outside!
mac12 · 17/09/2020 21:28

@Ecosse You don’t believe Long Covid & the multitude of other complications (neurological, myocarditis, Type 1 diabetes, clotting etc) resulting from even mild Covid infections are real ?
You are going to be in for one helluva of a shock when the dust settles on this & we come out the other side.

OP posts:
Ecosse · 17/09/2020 21:45

@mac12

As I said, there is a very small proportion of people with COVID who will develop after effects, some of which may be serious.

This is not something magically new, however. It is something that happens with all viruses.

CoffeeandCroissant · 17/09/2020 21:48

From the FT:

Leading scientists advising the UK government have proposed a two-week national lockdown in October to try to tackle the rising number of coronavirus cases.

The move highlights how Boris Johnson might come under increasing pressure to introduce a second national lockdown, even though he has said he is strongly against such a measure.

Experts on the government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) and the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (Spi-m) have suggested a national lockdown that could coincide with the October school half-term.

CoffeeandCroissant · 17/09/2020 21:51

Second national lockdown proposed by UK scientific advisers - on.ft.com/32CQiLB via @FT