Costello's tweet re Whitty & lockdown Now retracted *edited by MNHQ at OP's request*

[mac12]

Anyone heard anymore on this? Apparently amid the testing chaos, we’re now thought to be at 38,000 cases a day & CMO wants a 2 week national lockdown
twitter.com/globalhlthtwit/status/1306351773356118022?s=21

We have hard evidence that a circuit breaker would reduce transmission, because any reduction in contact reduces transmission.

The definition of 'works' is harder - the aim is clearly to get cases down by a reasonable amount.

To be considering it at all means we are in a far worse place than they are admitting.

They've been bluffing all summer

Scientists will differ as always but professor of infectious disease on radio yesterday talking about negative impact (financial etc) outweighing positive as short lockdown won’t work well enough.

All you can do is keep under NHS capacity.

I don't think they have been bluffing all summer. They knew all along that there would be a summer lull of low transmission when the sun was still strong, meeting up was mainly outside and more things were opening up. We were meant to enjoy out cakes and ale whilst it lasted, because all bets were off for winter.

(And I and some other posters have been saying that throughout)

I do think the start of the rise has come a bit earlier than expected. It takes a week or two for the rise in transmissions to show (to allow for the incubation period) and I think it was not expected until schools had been open for for a few weeks (cases showing at mid/late October). Not that schools would reopen during the rise.

Christ, some people seem to think this is like a game of Risk.

Scaevola yes agree. We had to spend some money, as much as could be allowed for stimulus to help next part.

They were bluffing when they said we had enough capacity for testing etc in September.

You seriously think we should be dispatching healthcare workers across the country on demand, for perhaps the toughest job healthcare’s seen for decades?? You do realise they are people with children, families etc

If it was voluntary and sufficiently paid then it would be perfectly workable for some staff to be moved and some would be willing to do this. Not all have children/ other commitments.

I despair at the mumsnet extremes - the answer to most things in life lies in the middle.

If it was voluntary and sufficiently paid then it would be perfectly workable for some staff to be moved and some would be willing to do this.

We don't have enough nurses anywhere, everyone is already on wards operating below safe capacity.

So Costello wasn't completely off the mark then if the new 'restrictions' being rumoured are true.

We don't have enough nurses anywhere, everyone is already on wards operating below safe capacity.

It depends what else you cancel doesn’t it?

They were bluffing when they said we had enough capacity for testing etc in September

Bluffing, or lying?

@Teateaandmoretea

We don't have enough nurses anywhere, everyone is already on wards operating below safe capacity.

It depends what else you cancel doesn’t it?

Not really, because ICU nurses are specially trained. That's why the nightingale hospitals stood empty.

Yes for general duties you could transfer nurses I suppose.

But we are so understaffed across the NHS.

@Aridane

They were bluffing when they said we had enough capacity for testing etc in September

Bluffing, or lying?

Well that's a question!

They were bluffing when they said we had enough capacity for testing etc in September

Did they specify September? (I can't remember!)

I think they believed the autumn rise would being a few weeks after schools went back (so October - ish) and that is why there is confidence that they'll have the working capacity by then (wasn't that the assurance yesterday) when they thought it would be needed.

Which all seems far too late from where we are now.

[quote Ecosse]@borntobequiet

The government could easily utilise hotels that are currently closed as NHS staff accommodation. They should also sort out and fund things like transport and childcare.

There should be a demand-responsive system effectively like Uber where staff go where they’re needed. The government should be able to say move 100 nurses from Southampton to Sheffield.

NHS staff should be told that it is their civic duty to play their part in keeping the economy open and they are tantamount to soldiers on the frontline against this virus.[/quote]
I'm sure most things could be done in theory if the government try hard enough. Which they don't.
But are you seriously suggesting that we should be asking these 100 nurses who have already worked their arses during the first part of this pandemic, in immensely stressful conditions, often without adequate PPE, who have known, heard of or seen other NHS staff die due to covid......asking them to leave their homes and family, up and leave and go to another part of the country, stay in a hotel alone, and work elsewhere??? (And for the minimal pay that they get with no pay rises)......if I was one of those 100 nurses I would tell you to fuck right off

@scaevola

They were bluffing when they said we had enough capacity for testing etc in September

Did they specify September? (I can't remember!)

I think they believed the autumn rise would being a few weeks after schools went back (so October - ish) and that is why there is confidence that they'll have the working capacity by then (wasn't that the assurance yesterday) when they thought it would be needed.

Which all seems far too late from where we are now.

The schools guidance said the 'test and trace is up and running' and said government 'will make it as easy as possible to get a test through a wide range of routes that locally accessible, fast and convenient'. The word 'possible' clearly a get out of course.

So yes, September. They knew mid-August they wouldn't have enough.

Ministers said schools could reopen safely in part due to testing in place.

I don’t think every hospital in the country will be overwhelmed- many areas still have very low cases.

Even if the outbreak is nationwide, it is not going to affect every area at the same time. So there will be scope to move NHS staff around the country to where they’re needed.

This is absolutely something the government should be looking at as a matter of urgency.

Reported

Ecosse could you offer any help and add your name to the list for moving round the country with a few days notice?

@Ecosse

I don’t think every hospital in the country will be overwhelmed- many areas still have very low cases.

Even if the outbreak is nationwide, it is not going to affect every area at the same time. So there will be scope to move NHS staff around the country to where they’re needed.

This is absolutely something the government should be looking at as a matter of urgency.

I still don't think you're considering that the staff you're so willingly moving across the UK may not actually want to!!!!

@DonnaDonna01

If I were an NHS HCP, I would much rather be helping my colleagues on the frontline at Birmingham Nightingale hospital than twiddling my thumbs watching Netflix in an empty ward.

I would be more than happy to be re-deployed where needed. This is actually a clause that is found in many employment contracts- DS is in a professional role and his contract states he can be temporarily moved anywhere in the U.K. to meet the needs of the business and at the discretion of senior management.

@Emilia10 for the most bizarre place to advertise that message!

@Ecosse you don’t just need medical trained staff, you also would need extra porters, cleaners, administration staff etc. Much like an army something like your suggestions would need support staff; not everyone is on the frontline fighting. So you could volunteer if you think it is so vital. Your DS signed that contract and obviously is prepared to do that. Most nhs staff will not have this in their contract and may not have been prepared to take the role if it was. I would also think by the sounds of that contract your DS is on a substantial amount more than minimum wage unlike a lot of nhs staff. I’m not sure where NHS staff sit watching Netflix’s but it’s not in my area, everyone is always rushed off their feet and understaffed. I think that comment is quite disrespectful and insulting to some of the most important and hard working people in the country.

Ah the legendary empty wards with Netflix watching nurses