Costello's tweet re Whitty & lockdown Now retracted *edited by MNHQ at OP's request*

[mac12]

Anyone heard anymore on this? Apparently amid the testing chaos, we’re now thought to be at 38,000 cases a day & CMO wants a 2 week national lockdown
twitter.com/globalhlthtwit/status/1306351773356118022?s=21

[quote Oaktree55]@HesterShaw1yes the situation is evolving and everything is new hence there is a huge amount learnt each day, however there are experts and consensus opinion develops which is far better than reading Mumsnet for information.

I’ve no idea what you’re referencing but I obviously thought what you said was conspiracy based if I said so yes.[/quote]
I didn't even make any point about what I had been reading. I simply said I made a point of reading and researching stuff other than what I heard on the news.

Which I why I'm not entirely convinced at the moment that deaths will shortly rocket.

But as you say, it's an evolving situation.

I disagree oak being morbidly obese is an underlying health condition, ditto diabetes etc. So yes the young are largely unaffected, provided they do not have any of these risk factors (and others) It is possible to ensure that those at risk are very aware of those risks, and are offered shopping delivery slots and working from home where possible. When I say young, I am saying those under 30 and not with underlying health issues. Millions and millions of people in a nutshell, that will recover from covid should they catch it or have symptoms.

I was talking about the peak in the UK, it was at the end of March and before the lockdown. I was not talking worldwide. It is different everywhere you go, obviously.

I would like to know why you have such an aversion to shielding the old and vulnerable and allowing most people to carry on, with restrictions, as normal?
What is it that makes you feel so worried about that option?

I am interested to know.

Track and trace does not always work oak lots of people were just completely ignoring it, even when it worked.

So given your only choice is not available, what do you propose?

Which I why I'm not entirely convinced at the moment that deaths will shortly rocket

I am not convinced either, we are not in the same place as before. We have much more distancing going on, masks, home workers, those that are vulnerable choosing to shield. It is possible we won't see any kind of rocket more like an endless battle to keep the numbers down all winter, with a sporadic lockdown in different places at different times.

It's pretty clear many have been ignoring the SD or they wouldnt have the colds to pass on to everyone else

My DD caught a cold in the school holidays, we had been to two places, she had been scrupulous with hand washing, distancing, mask wearing. I genuinely have no idea where the cold came from.

Droplets most likely - can enter eyes, or touch and then contact with mouth, rub eyes etc.

@Friendsoftheearth firstly it’s morally questionable a strategy of locking certain sectors of society away. In fact more than questionable.

More importantly it won’t work, unless perhaps you’re the Queen who is currently living this way with isolated staff etc with her.

Most vulnerable people need access to care/healthcare. As community transmission increases the odds of a cleaner etc being infected say in a care home increases. It’s a naive and poorly thought through option which just isn’t practical.

I disagree with your point over young people too. There are often pregnant women in icu with Covid or slightly overweight. Just look at the photos of all the healthcare workers who died they’re not obviously overweight etc

Finally are we sticking all the BAME community away somewhere?!?! Do you really think about the details of this amazing policy you have for solving the global crisis?

"The BAME community" isn't a homogeneous thing though is it?

@HesterShaw1 the pattern is the same. Cases increase in the young, this then extends back, hospitalisations increase, deaths increase.

I don’t know why we seem to assume we’re different. We never learn we see what happens elsewhere eg what’s evolving in Europe yet we blindly think somehow it’ll be different here. There’s enough alarm bells sounding in the U.K. figures.

@HesterShaw1 I don’t recall the figures but yes the BAME community are at far greater risk of serious Covid than being white for as yet unconfirmed reasons.

Agree with a short (2 week), sharp lockdown whilst keeping children in school, before furlough ends, giving a chance for new labs to start and optimistically track & trace to improve.

[quote Oaktree55]@Friendsoftheearth firstly it’s morally questionable a strategy of locking certain sectors of society away. In fact more than questionable.

More importantly it won’t work, unless perhaps you’re the Queen who is currently living this way with isolated staff etc with her.

Most vulnerable people need access to care/healthcare. As community transmission increases the odds of a cleaner etc being infected say in a care home increases. It’s a naive and poorly thought through option which just isn’t practical.

I disagree with your point over young people too. There are often pregnant women in icu with Covid or slightly overweight. Just look at the photos of all the healthcare workers who died they’re not obviously overweight etc

Finally are we sticking all the BAME community away somewhere?!?! Do you really think about the details of this amazing policy you have for solving the global crisis?[/quote]
I agree it’s questionable.

But equally so we should question children and the right to education. Which finally did happen after a term.

[quote Oaktree55]@Friendsoftheearth I just follow scientists and economists and they tend to be more reliable than Mumsnetters! I’m also a realist but I appreciate most prefer a comfortable lie than the uncomfortable truth.[/quote]
Me too. Although scientists vary too! So Heneghan one end is very different to Costello.

Even meta studies vary depending on authors.

Best case is to go to the source I reckon oh and hang around the graphs thread ;

[quote Oaktree55]@HesterShaw1 I don’t recall the figures but yes the BAME community are at far greater risk of serious Covid than being white for as yet unconfirmed reasons.[/quote]
Yes I know that. It's been known about since March and April.

However, even within that community (and let's face it, it's a pretty diverse one), there will be enormous variance between young and old, thin and fat, people with diabetes and those without, people who live in houses with 3 others, and people who live in flats with 8 others.

I would venture myself that making everyone stay indoors more in even closer proximity to the other people who are living with you, might be counter productive. And at this same time this will do people's immunity to other potentially harmful illnesses no good at all.

It's more research that's needed, not extended damaging lockdowns.

Yes to social distancing, yes to improved hygiene, yes to masks in enclosed spaces, yes to being cautious. But another lockdown?

@Friendsoftheearth

Spain opened all nightclubs, parties continued, beaches were crowded and the country welcomed thousands and thousands of tourists from everywhere. Of course it was only a matter of time before covid took off, but what choice did they have? Their economy relies almost entirely on tourism. NY have many other industries to rely on!

That isn’t true, the cases rising in Spain were not concentrated around the beaches and tourism areas, in fact many tourists e.g. UK all came back very soon due to it being on quarantine list early in the summer.

It really pays to look at the figures and not just extrapolate. Spain’s cases all rose in their young population and around bars, restaurants and nightclubs. Nothing to do with opening the economy. Everything to do with being very lax about social distancing whilst socializing. It is a great pity as it has so much more outdoor space to eat and socialize and the weather for it. Spain would have saved part of it’s summer tourist economy if it had been stricter about social distancing in the city.

@HesterShaw1

It's more research that's needed, not extended damaging lockdowns.

Yes to social distancing, yes to improved hygiene, yes to masks in enclosed spaces, yes to being cautious. But another lockdown?

I agree it is very disheartening and for me is a sign they are not managing this well.

For goodness sake can we get the regional Public Health Departments to take over?! Public Health England was not a good substitute for regional and local Public Health Teams who have been doing this work for years and have massive expertise and experience.

Many local regions have taken over track and trace themselves, but it’s still a mess nationally which effects everything. Yes track and trace isn’t a magic cure not everyone socially isolates however it is one of the key components of a good public health strategy. That has been shown over and over in different countries all over the world.

Local restrictions are not great however they are better than blunt tools like national lockdowns that start and stop. It’s like an investigation - we find quickly local cases and nip them out as precisely as we can. Not everyone will isolate or socially distance, but if you keep numbers low then you need less perfect compliance for the population. You also have lots more time to investigate cases, to support them, to find others.

But the basis of this is knowing who is getting it, where, when, and minimizing them passing it on. It’s not rocket science but it does need a very well managed and knowledgeable system.

oak It seem to me like you have your own personal reasons for wanting to avoid the Swedish model, perhaps you are someone vulnerable, maybe not, but either way I don't think it is especially productive to suggest an option that isn't even viable, and then say nothing else can work.

Many other options can and will work, with the right technology, with imagination and doing what the UK does best - invent new ideas.

I don't see this as the end of the world, far from it, and I am just about to go into hospital for surgery myself. Lets look after our elderly and our vulnerable, and lets show some backbone - we can't stay locked up forever so we may as well find ways to work around this wretched thing.

I wish it wasn't happening as much as the next person, but we are where we are

**seems

mismatched shoes! grin

Spell her name wrong and criticise her - shoes?
Dear God.

That's exactly what I thought. What a numpty.

No I don’t have personal reasons. That is a sly put down trying to undermine the very valid reasons as to why Sweden should not be repeated in the U.K. You seem to conveniently ignore any facts or comments which don’t fit your dialogue.

No I don’t have the answer. It’s a global crisis to which there is no easy answer.

You also I hate to tell you don’t have the answer with the suggestions you’ve made so far which I’ve rightly pointed out impracticalities with.

Seems to be that Sweden is playing the long game while the UK (and other countries) are lurching from one crisis to the next, with their agenda driven by populism and social media.

I know which I'd rather.

With a handful of exceptions, every child I have taught in the last few weeks has told me that they have spent their lockdown playing Xbox. Or the like.
Mumsnet Is a skewed reality where homeschool or blended learning works perfectly and everyone learns everything..
However, in the real world, months of education has been lost, children's mental health has been damaged, they've sat playing Xbox and doing nothing productive....the world cannot stop again for one illness.

@Friendsoftheearth also your comment re “the right technology etc” sounds a bit like Boris’s moonshot. Great ideas but unfortunately not implementable yet as the technology doesn’t exist. We can all play Boris’s game of solving this with magic non existent tech 🤯

@HesterShaw1 I literally give up re Sweden. You say you mention populism and social media yet that is exactly what is cherry picking the Swedish example. Look at the detail and compare to the U.K. and you’ll see it’s not the rosy example we should (or could) all be following.