Costello's tweet re Whitty & lockdown Now retracted *edited by MNHQ at OP's request*

[mac12]

Anyone heard anymore on this? Apparently amid the testing chaos, we’re now thought to be at 38,000 cases a day & CMO wants a 2 week national lockdown
twitter.com/globalhlthtwit/status/1306351773356118022?s=21

@Friendsoftheearth from the detail I’ve read Swedes are still v much social distancing and there is some creative accounting happening with the testing/figures

Hence no second peak (yet)

oak So just to be honest, I do have family connections in Sweden, I am aware many are furious with the way care homes were left to be infested with covid. They were not protected at all.
Sweden have not handled this perfectly. There is a great deal of anger about how many lives were lost needlessly, but the broad opinion is supportive of a lite touch.

Sweden is geographically more spread out, they are generally a resilient nation, used to hardship and isolation especially in rural areas during their long winters, law abiding and above all sensible and pragmatic.

The Swedish government were right to trust the population, they do SD and do follow guidelines. I would say the UK now is pretty much where Sweden have been all along, most things are open, schools open, people living and working but with some sensible restrictions. If the UK stick to our current arrangements more or less, we shall be following the 'Swedish' model by default.

shielding the vulnerable doesn’t work It does work, and we saw that in April and throughout the summer, if the vulnerable are supported to isolate then that would mean the rest of the country could carry on, and the economy will be spared even more damage.

Long term effects of Covid The same can be said for any virus, they can all have long term effects. Most people recover completely.

Economies who have dealt with the virus have fared best What examples do you have of any country that has 'dealt' with the virus? I can't think of any example, the only solution is a vaccine.

There is no healthcare without the economy of that I am certain! So it is better to keep those that are healthy in work to support those that can't.

I do not believe Sweden are fixing their figures for one minute. They are an extremely transparent nation, and one that prides itself on honesty. There are many countries massaging figures (China, Russia etc) but you can not accuse Sweden of that.

* I do not believe Sweden are fixing their figures for one minute. They are an extremely transparent nation, and one that prides itself on honesty. There are many countries massaging figures (China, Russia etc) but you can not accuse Sweden of that.*

This. Exactly. If anything over estimate. Same with U.K.

I'm hoping it will be a good excuse for not sending cards. Quick text to everyone on the phone saying I'm not going near post office as too busy/dangerous.

Oh joy. I will take any joy I can anywhere I can.

@Friendsoftheearth

oak So just to be honest, I do have family connections in Sweden, I am aware many are furious with the way care homes were left to be infested with covid. They were not protected at all. Sweden have not handled this perfectly. There is a great deal of anger about how many lives were lost needlessly, but the broad opinion is supportive of a lite touch.

Sweden is geographically more spread out, they are generally a resilient nation, used to hardship and isolation especially in rural areas during their long winters, law abiding and above all sensible and pragmatic.

The Swedish government were right to trust the population, they do SD and do follow guidelines. I would say the UK now is pretty much where Sweden have been all along, most things are open, schools open, people living and working but with some sensible restrictions. If the UK stick to our current arrangements more or less, we shall be following the 'Swedish' model by default.

This sounds about right

ancientgran You sound amazing!! Completely ready for anything, and I am sure your family are relieved that you are so relaxed and easy going about it all. After all we will have many more christmases that will not be overshadowed by a virus in the future, all being well.

We can save the trees by sending texts this christmas! :)

@Friendsoftheearth Sweden is very different to the U.K. for many reasons most notably the number of single person households.

Yes all viruses have long term effects in many but for most there is immunity in the population via vaccination. This is not the case for SARS Cov 2 and this isn’t my opinion it was pointed out by Mike Ryan in latest WHO conference. 10% of non hospitalised people are suffering lingering effects which are often debilitating.

You can not compare U.K. to Sweden or a novel virus to existing ones.

oak What is the solution? Because we can't shut the country down for a few months on end again. We simply do not have the resources, so as far as I can see we have no choice but to carry on and manage it as best we can. That is the truth of the matter.

Yes of course it is very sad that some people will have complications, some life long, I am not minimising that at all - but I do think it is slightly indulgent to imagine we have a choice.

We need the vaccine, and that is coming, but in the meantime some hard decisions need to made.

@Friendsoftheearth there is an option a working track and trace system but I agree we’ve probably gone past that now as numbers will be too high.

Be under no illusion though that the economy will continue. It won’t. We’re mid September and France’s hospitalisations have now surpassed their level that they went into lockdown.

There will come a point that the hospitals won’t cope.

I cannot wait for Chris whittys tell all.
I have a feeling he is as frustrated as the rest of us with this government.

oak The infection rate is too high agreed, so that is not really an option now - if it ever was (even when T&T has worked this summer, it was well documented that there was a lack of compliance and people still going on holiday even when asked to isolate) but we don't need to go down the same route as France, we can tighten up earlier and hope that works. Some restrictions will work, and work well.

I am not saying we have nothing to fear in the winter, but I do feel we are all able to be part of the solution by moderating our socialising and doing our best to limit the spread. It is entirely possible our hospitals will cope as well as they did last time.

evil Chris Whitty is far too professional and decent, I don't think he would do it.

In France there was mass migration from Paris to the south, tourists from all over Europe flooding to the south of France, combined with low compliance of any SD or measures. Our friends in France said the summer was just like any other! As soon as she said that the writing was on the wall.

France only made masks mandatory a few weeks ago, and well after the UK. Additionally, they are keen to avoid national lockdowns, so it will be interesting to see how they cope given they are currently up 10,000 known infections per day (and are not testing anywhere near the volume of the UK) What happens to France and Spain in the coming weeks will be valuable.

@Friendsoftheearth but hospitalisations are already rising? I think that is very much wishful thinking on your part. If we were magically going to keep transmission low this would have happened.

Hospitals coped because the NHS became the National Covid Service and we locked down preventing the spread!!!

Seriously without such drastic action do you not realise the hospitalisations would have continued to rise?!?

It's pretty clear many have been ignoring the SD or they wouldnt have the colds to pass on to everyone else

This is bollocks. People are still working in environments where social distancing isn’t possible. Masks aren’t a magic bullet. Children have still been at nursery and at childminders throughout (and surely no one would argue that nursery aged children should be social distancing?). Carers are still having to care for people, up close. Do you actually think we can eradicate the common cold?

@Friendsoftheearth masks were mandatory in France before the U.K. They recently extended the mandate to outdoor wearing in many areas but they’ve been mandated indoors in public before the U.K.

@Friendsoftheearth Spain’s death toll is up to 250 a day as well.

If you’re happy working from home, getting your shopping delivered, getting Amazon deliveries etc then it’s easy to say ‘people shouldn’t be getting colds’ but back in the real world it’s not like that.

oak there is another line of thinking that it would have levelled off, just as it did in Sweden. We peaked before the lockdown even started, so we can't know that the hospitals would be overwhelmed. Sweden's hospitals were never swamped. Their approach was more moderate, but achieved the same without the dent to the economy or education.

We have to be careful to make assumptions. Locking down does not always work, longer term measures and keeping things open but running as safely as possible can also be useful.

You seem to have resigned yourself to another lockdown and a disaster and you might be right, but I happen to hope we do things differently this time. There is no need to lock down areas with no covid or very low levels, there is no point to keep healthy young people at home for no good reason. I hope it will be nuanced this time.

@Friendsoftheearth I just follow scientists and economists and they tend to be more reliable than Mumsnetters! I’m also a realist but I appreciate most prefer a comfortable lie than the uncomfortable truth.

[quote Oaktree55]@Friendsoftheearth I just follow scientists and economists and they tend to be more reliable than Mumsnetters! I’m also a realist but I appreciate most prefer a comfortable lie than the uncomfortable truth.[/quote]
But science isn't a consensus is it? It's a series of questions and investigations, at its basic level.

That's what has been proven the last six months, if nothing else.

Those who claim to follow science are following the version of science which best suits them for whatever reason, inevitably. On another thread you said I was a far right conspiracy theorist for reading stuff other than what was on the news

@HesterShaw1yes the situation is evolving and everything is new hence there is a huge amount learnt each day, however there are experts and consensus opinion develops which is far better than reading Mumsnet for information.

I’ve no idea what you’re referencing but I obviously thought what you said was conspiracy based if I said so yes.

oak You and I differ in the fact I do not have any concrete stand on covid (or anything else) I am willing to look at the evidence, the facts and new solutions and reconsider my views accordingly.

I, like many others, supported the first lockdown as we did not know enough about the new virus to take the risk, but six months on and we know now and can be fairly sure that those that are very old, or in fragile health and those with certain health conditions are likely to be the only people to die.

We know young people are unaffected, so this has to change our perceptions and decisions. We have better treatments now in hospitals, and can see that those are very old are most at risk.

We don't have to respond in the same way as we did in spring. So I am keeping an open mind, not living a lie - and if that makes you uncomfortable that is not my intention, but I really feel a flexible, moderate view is the best one.

@Friendsoftheearth unfortunately a lot of what you state with authority is factually incorrect.

Many young people (?definition of young) are affected. 1:3 in icu are under 45 I think presently in Denmark or Switzerland. The West has a lot of comorbidities in the young, obesity and high blood pressure. The assumption there are no long term effects is presently an assumption.

You state hospitals will cope when it’s quite clear in March they ditched everything else. If your implication that we reached the peak early March is correct why are numbers rising and why is seropositivity over 70% in South America etc.

You believe your own spin. Which fine if you want to ignore facts then do so. In my opinion you are ignoring the reality we’re facing.

@Friendsoftheearth and before you say I want another lockdown I don’t. I wanted a working track and trace system that we were promised.