Costello's tweet re Whitty & lockdown Now retracted *edited by MNHQ at OP's request*

[mac12]

Anyone heard anymore on this? Apparently amid the testing chaos, we’re now thought to be at 38,000 cases a day & CMO wants a 2 week national lockdown
twitter.com/globalhlthtwit/status/1306351773356118022?s=21

@Friendsoftheearth so you are allowed to criticise Corbyn and Abbott but no-one can criticise the current real-life government without it being unhelpful, derailing and lowering the tone?
In fact, the only reason our government have got away with their handling of this shambles so far is precisely because most the population do not look at what other countries are doing.

I wasn’t a Corbyn supporter nor did I hate him. But I think it’s worth pointing out that he and McDonnell came up with the idea of furlough and pressurised they government to do it in meetings at the time (when he was still leader)

And arguably furlough is the only thing this government got right.

We have no idea if labour would have done better or worse (but I do think they would have locked down sooner in March based on what their leading figures were saying back then).

We can only really have an opinion on this government and their infinite incompetence.

Yes, we are all entitled to our opinion and to post them, It is wrong to post your own opinion and then tell off someone else for posting theirs.
(and I hated Corbyn personally, but freedom of speech is key).

It'll never work as there's too many pillocks who think they are more important and know better than the scientists.

Those scientists who don’t agree with each other you mean?

Those scientists who seem to be busy fearmongering all over twitter about another lockdown that they then had to retract? Those ones?

@FreidaMind he isn't advising government

True. He isn’t but it didn’t stop the op fearmongering all over Mumsnet about it. But that’s what we’ve come to expect from Mumsnet - who changed the title but should have deleted the thread instead

Well the ons survey figures are updated today (although lagged) so that should give an indication where we are. Interesting the 38,000 a day figure wasn’t retracted only the Witty part.

It is all over the news albeit noting that Costello has retracted what he said. I think it is a fair enough subject to talk about. The reality is, even if they were planning it, they'd deny it.

There's also been lots of stories about there being further restrictions if in two weeks, the Rule of 6 doesn't show a reduction in case numbers. No idea if that has been backed up by any evidence but it is still being talked about.

Currently DailyFail top headline online is about lockdowns and saving Christmas

Also about testing shambles obviously

oak With testing stalling in some places we now have no idea of the true numbers. It does seem a rather wild guess, 38,000 - based on what exactly? It does seem to be more rumours, unless someone can confirm otherwise.

There needs to be some restrictions around testing, we can not test the world and its dog, no country has the capacity to do so, we need to limit the tests, and it should be a traffic light system dependent on whether you are/family are keyworkers, vulnerable, over a certain age with risk factors and so on.

The system is being abused by some employers demanding negative tests from workers and those with little or none of the actual listed covid symptoms.

@Friendsoftheearth

oak With testing stalling in some places we now have no idea of the true numbers. It does seem a rather wild guess, 38,000 - based on what exactly? It does seem to be more rumours, unless someone can confirm otherwise.

They didn't know the true numbers back at the peak either. I think they had a calculation for it although can't recall what that was. I assume the 38k has been calculated on the same basis although how they are doing that when they aren't testing enough, I don't know.

Perhaps it is time now to bring back daily briefings kiri I know some people associate them with the bad days of the peak, but it would put a stop to all the misinformation and second guessing. We could tune in and listen to the facts laid out, the solutions that were being considered or implemented and we would all know the precise position of SAGE and the government.

I read three papers a day, and in every one the 'facts' tend to vary depending on the viewpoint of the writer, everyone wants more information and to be able to rely on accuracy.

Well I'm sorting out Christmas, I've got the main presents for little grandchildren, teenagers having money. I am ordering wrapping paper today and if I manage to see any of my kids in the next month or two I will pass the parcels on, if I don't well parcels will be sent on. DH and I won't bother with presents for each other, my adult children will get money in their accounts as will niece. Food will be courtesy of my regular Sainsbury's delivery and if Christmas means too much food, Netflix and just the two of us well so be it. I can't see the point of everything for months being based on Saving Christmas, particularly when a large proportion of those fussing about Christmas don't seem to be worrying about church and Baby Jesus.

@ancientgran

Well I'm sorting out Christmas, I've got the main presents for little grandchildren, teenagers having money. I am ordering wrapping paper today and if I manage to see any of my kids in the next month or two I will pass the parcels on, if I don't well parcels will be sent on. DH and I won't bother with presents for each other, my adult children will get money in their accounts as will niece. Food will be courtesy of my regular Sainsbury's delivery and if Christmas means too much food, Netflix and just the two of us well so be it. I can't see the point of everything for months being based on Saving Christmas, particularly when a large proportion of those fussing about Christmas don't seem to be worrying about church and Baby Jesus.

Good approach! No point spending 3 months in lockdown for just 1 day. But I guarantee that since the public have coronavirus fatigue and are totally disillusioned with lockdowns since the gains of the last one were wasted, the government and media will now be mentioning Christmas every time lockdown is brought up.

@Friendsoftheearth I have no idea how it’s calculated except to say it’s very possible with ONS data to get a pretty accurate picture of where we were 2 weeks ago (or similar lag). I was pointing out this figure wasn’t retracted only the Witty comment. Given testing has been such a shambles and this grows exponentially is it such a wild figure? I don’t know considering the amount of opening up we’ve done at once and the return from holidays etc.

@Friendsoftheearth

The solution for the UK is to carry on with localised lockdowns as before, and shield the elderly and the vulnerable now. It can and does work, and we should do that straight away. We could take other measures too, such as limit public transport use where possible, everyone should work from home and other restrictions that mean we can keep as many people in school and work as possible, whilst minimising the transmission.

I don't think a second national lockdown is going to happen in the near future, or at all if it can be avoided.

Although I have heard Madrid is going into total lockdown.

The problem with this is that local lockdowns as they are at the moment are not effective. It is basically just no going in anybody else's house. Everything else open. Hardly anyone is complying with this. The only way round this would be to split by geographical area with full local lockdowns with schools, pubs and non-essential businesses closed as with the full lockdown. This would need to be heavily policed with people having to show id to leave the area and would probably lead to disorder and divisions.

fooby Yes it is a logistical nightmare, that said the lockdown inc shops and restaurant closures did work in Leicestershire, and they were able to get on top of the infection rate, and restrictions were eased. So it can be done, but yes it is a big problem. You know I don't need to tell you that I am a huge fan of the Swedish model, so I don't even agree with any lockdowns, but accept in the very worst case scenario they may be needed.

oak Yes I understood your point - just seems very high given the actual infection rate is just under 4000, and has level out around 3000 mark for weeks now. If there is any truth in the 38,000 figure then we are in for a really rough ride this autumn.

@Foobydoo exactly. We currently have limited public compliance and a live in a country that polices by consent so it’s all very well imposing restrictions on social gatherings but they’re being ignored and will likely have little effect. Especially when combined with the fact there’s no track and trace in place!

oak so all you can actually do is advise people to do the right thing, and then shield the vulnerable and the elderly to save as many lives as possible. There is no point closing down with a lockdown if the compliance is as poor as you describe.

If we are not prepared to order a police state (there would be zero support for this in the UK) then the only other option is to put some measures in place to 'slow' the spread as much as possible, and hope to God the hospitals hold out in the winter.

We let young people carry on with their lives, we continue to keep the economy alive and well, we protect those at most risk. What else can be done? We have to decide and quickly. The straddling of both options does not work, as we have seen and will become increasingly more obvious as the infection spreads.

@Friendsoftheearth

Without getting into a Sweden debate. There is a lot of misinformation re what happened there. Apart from the demographic being totally different to U.K. I thought the following was interesting:

we are told Sweden had very 'minimal distancing' - however this is untrue
-Stockholm travel reduced by 50%, (London by around 60-70%. )
-50% Worked from Home. Gatherings/travel were avoided.
-GDP dropped 8%
-Eldest school years were on line (16-18 yrs)

It’s all v well saying there didn’t lock down but if their behaviour was effectively similar then 🤷🏽‍♀️. I think over 50% of Swedish households are single occupancy and there are many other factors which mean we could not replicate in U.K. Many Swedes are also incredibly unhappy too with their Gov’s handling.

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/15/sweden-records-its-fewest-daily-covid-19-cases-since-march

I think we need to look at Sweden though, there is a second spike in Europe and yet Sweden are not seeing this currently at all.

@Friendsoftheearth shielding the vulnerable doesn’t work. Apart from the moral argument they often need the most interaction with healthcare etc.

You are also ignoring potential long term effects of Covid not only from a health perspective but a cost to society too.

Economies who have dealt with the virus have fared best. There is no herd immunity via infection. When numbers rise to a certain level people won’t go out spending.

There is no economy without health.