Should we have a full lockdown briefly now to slow down rises

[Worriedmum999]

Just musing really. Would it be better to have a few weeks of full lockdown now while furlough is still ongoing rather than needing to do one in a month or so as an emergency when 1000 people are dying every day, having to extend furlough etc.

If it’s planned then people can prep for it. Make it a really strict one. Have minimum shops open for emergencies with strict distancing. School well prepared to teach online for 2 weeks.

Might this give us the time to sort the testing backlog and increase them as promised? Give everyone the short sharp shock they need to take distancing/masks seriously again then reopen with clearer rules

I’m pretty optimistic about the vaccine actually. I think something will be available in six months.

However, we would be so stupid to bet the farm on it. And even when it arrives there will be so many issues with who gets it, anti-vaxxers not wanting it, how efficacious it is across various groups, how often we need a booster.

At first, it will be more like another weapon in our arsenal, not the silver bullet some people are assuming.

Absolutely not .

What we really need is easy access to testing and results same/next day to minimise unnecessary lost work and schooldays .

At first, it will be more like another weapon in our arsenal, not the silver bullet some people are assuming

Definitely this. It will reduce the number of deaths, maybe by a little, maybe by a substantial amount.

I’m fine with it as a weapon in our arsenal. It will give us a chance to operate fully

I’m fine with it as a weapon in our arsenal. It will give us a chance to operate fully

Absolutely. I’m saying that we need to be also developing the societal, functional, admin strategies alongside it as it’s not going to be the case that the vaccine appears and solves all our problems. And lockdown doesn’t help us do that.

@TheKeatingFive

I’m fine with it as a weapon in our arsenal. It will give us a chance to operate fully

Absolutely. I’m saying that we need to be also developing the societal, functional, admin strategies alongside it as it’s not going to be the case that the vaccine appears and solves all our problems. And lockdown doesn’t help us do that.

True.

Will just leave this here.

Look at deaths last week - nearly 1500 down on the five year average.

mobile.twitter.com/i/web/status/1305787268200902656?fbclid=IwAR2meeAY6Uqho7k1SHU-LuRg43i5ZBU0v46CcqX72lcVZ-15dfK6F5hyx4I

Shit needs to get back to normal soon.

Absolutely not.

I wouldn’t trust the government to lock down for just a week or two, judging on their past performance

If you actually want to protect the most vulnerable in society you need a fully functioning public service backed by a strong economy. You need to educate and ensure the social development of the next generation and give them access to safeguarding services, you need care and respite for people with complex needs and unpaid carers, you need a fully functioning health service.

A full lockdown may have slowed down spread of a virus, but to do this we sacrificed every other protective element in society and have tipped ourselves into a deep recession thus increasing the pool of vulnerable people. Lockdown has never been a solution, merely a pause button and now, heading into winter, it means that we have squandered the summer to build our immune system to all the other things that lurk in the cold weather.

Not having Covid cannot be the only measure of a healthy society.

If you actually want to protect the most vulnerable in society you need a fully functioning public service backed by a strong economy. You need to educate and ensure the social development of the next generation and give them access to safeguarding services, you need care and respite for people with complex needs and unpaid carers, you need a fully functioning health service.

Yes, this

No I dont believe a full national lockdown works.

We cannot apply the concept of exponential growth to the country as a whole. Some areas are in the midst of this, some areas (like mine) are holding fairly stable at a reasonable amount of cases and others are dropping.

We did a national lockdown because we did not have enough information. Arguably shockingly right now we probably do not have as much as we should. But we have enough - to pinpoint the areas of concern and apply further restrictions now.

My view is that part of the reason we are in this mess with increasing cases in the north is that we locked down back in March based on London and the South (England) meaning we reached lockdown fatigue to early in some areas.

Our focus now should be on testing tracking and tracing and keeping that under control. Applying restrictions to areas where necessary. Balancing out so that education/health/economy goes on whilst protecting those who need it

And probably understanding the risks - it isnt an automatic death sentence for many at all

@Quartz2208

No I dont believe a full national lockdown works.

We cannot apply the concept of exponential growth to the country as a whole. Some areas are in the midst of this, some areas (like mine) are holding fairly stable at a reasonable amount of cases and others are dropping.

We did a national lockdown because we did not have enough information. Arguably shockingly right now we probably do not have as much as we should. But we have enough - to pinpoint the areas of concern and apply further restrictions now.

My view is that part of the reason we are in this mess with increasing cases in the north is that we locked down back in March based on London and the South (England) meaning we reached lockdown fatigue to early in some areas.

Our focus now should be on testing tracking and tracing and keeping that under control. Applying restrictions to areas where necessary. Balancing out so that education/health/economy goes on whilst protecting those who need it

And probably understanding the risks - it isnt an automatic death sentence for many at all

I agree responding locally is becoming more important as a resonable response.

Reasonable

The problem is @WalesAppearsToBeSlightlySaner, you can talk sense as much as you want, but some people just can’t see past Covid deaths.
If lockdown was a benign action then yes, we should do it. It’s not. It has such severe, such far reaching consequences that it cannot be our ‘go to’ reaction.

“Everything has changed, we know so much more now. It isn't going to play out the same way twice”

This is true. Treatment and management of hospitalised cases is way better than in March. We’ve learned a lot.

I don’t think anyone currently knows the exact effect on case fatality rate, but we can assume it’s lower than it was.

As for number of cases, We are more careful than in March, however the doubling time is still worryingly short.

In feb/March with no social distancing or much change in public behaviour, the doubling time was 4-5 days. With the measures we currently have in place it is at 7 days.

If cases continue to increase at the rate they are currently shown to, without any change in action by the government, there is a real risk hospitals get overwhelmed.

the case fatality rate will also start to increase again if there aren’t enough resources to look after people properly in hospital.

But you can’t have it both ways.

If you don’t change anything and don’t start to impose further restrictions, cases will continue to rise at the rate of doubling every week. Then the NHS gets overburdened and the case fatality rate will go up.

you can talk sense as much as you want, but some people just can’t see past Covid deaths.

There’s been a huge problem with availability bias here right from the start of the crisis.

All anyone sees, hears, reacts to are Covid numbers. For people to have a rounded, nuanced reaction, they also need to be looking at unemployment figures due to lockdown, GDP drops, suicides, delays to essential services, missed diagnosis, cancer treatment rates, impact on education attainment, mental health deterioration, etc, etc.

The costs of lockdown haven’t been spelt out in parallel with Covid numbers. Hence the people who can’t think beyond Covid deaths.

NO NO NO

A family member lives in the small city Geelong (population of greater Geelong around 250,000) in the state of Victoria in Australia. When the city’s cases increased at the start of August to about 15 new cases daily, so not many, they went back into lockdown. This week many of the lockdown measures have been lifted now they have only about 3 cases daily.

So areas in Australia obviously continue to choose the strategy of locking down v early at the start of a rise in cases and then coming out of it again within a few weeks. Local lockdowns in the U.K. have not been implemented at such a low level of cases. I don’t see a full lockdown happening again but think local lockdowns may have to continue especially as the test, trace and isolate system is still inadequate.

I think we forget as well we are all on some form of lockdown - we do not currently have the freedom to just come and go as we please. Many measures are in place.

This is literally Nerja, Spain right now, Whom as we know had a harsh lockdown and still has very harsh conditions .

It’s the site of their weekly market.
They can’t survive this.
No one can.

**If you actually want to protect the most vulnerable in society you need a fully functioning public service backed by a strong economy. You need to educate and ensure the social development of the next generation and give them access to safeguarding services, you need care and respite for people with complex needs and unpaid carers, you need a fully functioning health service.

A full lockdown may have slowed down spread of a virus, but to do this we sacrificed every other protective element in society and have tipped ourselves into a deep recession thus increasing the pool of vulnerable people. Lockdown has never been a solution, merely a pause button and now, heading into winter, it means that we have squandered the summer to build our immune system to all the other things that lurk in the cold weather.

Not having Covid cannot be the only measure of a healthy society

Exactly this
Thank you, too, for pointing out the details of ICU bed occupancy back at the "peak" - I hadn't seen that, and it's interesting to see just how far we were from the Armageddon so many insisted was coming

And probably understanding the risks - it isnt an automatic death sentence for many at all

I agree there has to be an understanding about individual risks depending on age, conditions and that risk of death is low for most.

However, as time has passed it is becoming clear that the situation isn’t death or recovery. There is a small but not insignificant group of people of all ages who may have only had the virus mildly but then have developed a post viral syndrome . Months on they are still too ill to return to work and exercise. There is concern it could become chronic and thus life changing.

Others have may developed long term cardiac and lung damage. Still much to learn about this virus and its long term affects.

@Guylan - if you look up any disease, it can have long term effects. Take flu. Here is a well referenced article on the long term impacts in some people www.health.com/condition/cold-flu-sinus/flu-long-term-effects. The common cold can worsen existing conditions www.lung.org/lung-health-diseases/lung-disease-lookup/influenza/facts-about-the-common-cold (it led to regular bouts of pneumonia for my very premature sister), glandular fever can go on for years.

Thanks Walesappearstobesaner. With regards to longCovid, the concern is that a small but not insignificant group of people of all ages will not have long term affects just for a few months to a couple of years but for some it may - and we don’t know yet - become a life long disabling condition.

I have had ME which has some similar symptoms to what those with longCovid are describing (though not identical) - such as activity intolerance - for 22 years. I have been severely affected for many years now, been bedridden now for the last 8 years. So I am aware that if some longhaulers do end up developing a life long condition similar to ME how devastating such an illness can be.

Obviously it’s early days and I truly hope longCovid will turn out to be ultimately a self limiting condition even if it could take up to couple of years to fully recover but I am obviously more concerned than most of this possibility because of my personal experience of living with ME that often develops after a virus.