Should we have a full lockdown briefly now to slow down rises

[Worriedmum999]

Just musing really. Would it be better to have a few weeks of full lockdown now while furlough is still ongoing rather than needing to do one in a month or so as an emergency when 1000 people are dying every day, having to extend furlough etc.

If it’s planned then people can prep for it. Make it a really strict one. Have minimum shops open for emergencies with strict distancing. School well prepared to teach online for 2 weeks.

Might this give us the time to sort the testing backlog and increase them as promised? Give everyone the short sharp shock they need to take distancing/masks seriously again then reopen with clearer rules

Never say never.

I’m no scientist, I’m not an expert, I’m sitting back and watching the figures rising, much like I did in March! There was similar debates back then, no one was prepared for what lay ahead.

We have lots of Covid measures now, that’s a positive, the rule of 6 (if only people would comply) face masks, hand washing etc. Hopefully this will help to stem the tide. We’ll see.

If you read my previous post, you’ll see I’m extremely concerned about job losses, even without lock down, and the hardship this will bring to millions. Some people manage to think of others, even when they themselves are not immediately impacted.

We can not afford to go back into lockdown.

There is no money to fund another lockdown. More jobs will be lost, more people will be put into poverty.

No. People will die. End of.

I do not support another lockdown and I am not hard of thinking as the OP so charmingly put it. Quite the opposite, I have done nothing but arm myself with data and read stats constantly over the last few months.

So we lock down again and then what? Covid is going nowhere and we have no guarantee of a vaccine that will work - especially as vaccines generally have lower efficacy in older people, who are the ones overwhelmingly dying of Covid. As soon as you lift lockdown the cycle begins again.

Another lockdown will do more harm than good because you cannot stop people dying. They either die of Covid or they die because we stopped giving a shit about any other illness, or the economy, or education, or people's mental health. Hobson's choice OP because you don't get to save everyone. Personally I will choose the young over the elderly as they have a much longer future ahead of them. And you know what, every single elderly person in my life has said the same thing. My in-laws are mid 80's in not great health. We have done everything we can to keep them safe but would they put themselves ahead of their 19 year old grandchildren's future? Absolutely not.

Numbers are going up right now and it is concerning that there has been an uptick in hospital admissions but you need to remember that, even at the peak, we were nowhere near overwhelmed in the NHS. When this started we had 5900 ICU beds in the country and at the peak there were just over 3000 used. Since then we have added capacity and developed several treatments that have made a considerable difference.

Also, remember that it is not cases going up but positive PCR tests. Some of those will lead to cases but many won't. We all carry viruses all the time and sometimes they make us sick but often they don't. Covid is the first time we are calling a positive test a case and it is simply untrue.

My prediction for this post? You'll ignore every single rational point I've made and instead call me a granny killer because I have dared to suggest that, when deciding who lives or dies, I choose the heart attack victims, delayed cancer diagnoses, stroke treatments etc etc etc. By the way, that is precisely how the NHS and NICE operate normally making healthcare decisions for the majority not the minority and using QALY as an objective tool because as humans it's hard to make a rational and not emotional assessment.

At the beginning of lockdown, I remember Jenny Harries I think it was, in one of the news briefings saying that rolling lockdowns, on/off, on/off, on/off will be needed until there is a vaccine

There you have the cold stark truth of the matter, I know people do not want to hear it, I don't. My mental health has really suffered this year but need to be realistic. We are heading for another lockdown, doesnt matter that we cannot afford it, the virus doesn't understand this!

@endtimes I don't think something stated at the beginning of lockdown necessarily rings true several months on (masks?!). Every month of this virus has been like a year in terms of learning, data, knowledge.

I don't believe lockdowns work as they aren't a solution, just a pause button.

Mass roll out of a scientifically proven vaccine is a long way off, if ever.

Therefore developing long term strategies that enable us to live with this virus whilst keeping as much of the economy going as we can is what I believe we should do.

I don't believe lockdowns work as they aren't a solution, just a pause button

This.

but we cannot "learn to live with it" if it is running rampant. Services will be overwhelmed, not just the NHS. If we had a decent testing system, we might have had a shot at it, but the testing is at a crisis point.

[quote countrygirl99]@AmelieTaylor check the mortality stats again. You will probably be surprised. My OH is 60, obese, diabetic with hypertension. He thought like you u til he checked the stats.[/quote]
Thank you for trying to be reassuring, but the alama calculator says otherwise. You should have a look at it

alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/

Once you work out his Covid Years, scroll down to the bottom where it gives you his risk details.

@endtimes

but we cannot "learn to live with it" if it is running rampant. Services will be overwhelmed, not just the NHS. If we had a decent testing system, we might have had a shot at it, but the testing is at a crisis point.

Then put our efforts and money into a mass testing system, not into another lockdown which is merely kicking the can down the road. When this next lockdown (if it happens) is over, the mass testing system will still be needed to prevent cases rising again. It’s not a solution, it’s a delaying tactic.

@endtimes

but we cannot "learn to live with it" if it is running rampant. Services will be overwhelmed, not just the NHS. If we had a decent testing system, we might have had a shot at it, but the testing is at a crisis point.

Don’t let it run rampant but stay as we are - businesses SD and open plus schools. Use socialisation measures.

Increase testing.

I don't believe lockdowns work as they aren't a solution, just a pause button

Yes, a pause button that gets the numbers really low. We were too impatient & lifted restriction too quickly before the numbers were low enough.

Buying time brings us closer to better treatments & a vaccine

Mass roll out of a scientifically proven vaccine is a long way off, if ever

That's not what people who know about these things are saying. Why do you think you know better than specialists?

We do have a decent testing system that was scaled up impressively quickly from pretty much a zero starting point. The testing capacity is not the issue (my son works for one so I get a daily debrief from him!). It's the lab capacity that is causing the bottleneck and they are furiously putting measures in place to resolve. It should have been predicted that demand would soar as schools went back and all the usual back to school viruses began to circulate. We're still testing far more than our European counterparts which, again, is impressive when you consider where we started from. Is it perfect? Clearly not but it would be helpful if people could stick to symptoms as a basis for requesting a test.

Personally I do not support the Moonshot testing programme at a predicted cost of £100billion when we only spend £130 billion on the NHS. I can think of many, many ways we should spend that money instead

No...because we'll obviously have to reopen again quite quickly, and cases will inevitably rise again...and then what? Another lockdown? Third time lucky?

@EmmaWithTheGreatHair

Never say never.

I’m no scientist, I’m not an expert, I’m sitting back and watching the figures rising, much like I did in March! There was similar debates back then, no one was prepared for what lay ahead.

We have lots of Covid measures now, that’s a positive, the rule of 6 (if only people would comply) face masks, hand washing etc. Hopefully this will help to stem the tide. We’ll see.

Figures aren’t rising, they have dropped for the last few days

@AmelieTaylor I don't and nor would I be so presumptuous as to think I do!

What you'll see is a wide range of opinions from the experts and even the ones who are more optimistic about imminent approval are still cautious re rollout and the logistics involved in manufacturing capacity and vaccinating nearly 8 billion people.

That's why I say a vaccine cannot be the only solution, just in case it's not.

Another lockdown makes me feel sick tbh and I'm redundant with skills in an industry that's fucked thanks to Covid but....

Looking at the figures, looking at what's gone before and listening to the Health bods and scientists on various radio and tv programmes, looking France and Spain we are currently on the road back to where we were in March and April.

THERE had a lag with Covid. 2 to 3 weeks u for hospitalization. Longer for deaths. Yesterday they said it had already made it's way back into some care homes at a higher rate. Some expert on the radio yesterday said there is increading evidence now that it is stating to spread through older generations.

I agree in a months time well be in a very shit place again.

Rule of 6 us boll9cks and as many mumsnettets seem to be trying hard to just interpret rules as they please and show some desire yo ignore certain rules as they rrfusevto be controlled or what nor, I assume others in society feel equally as strong about the guidelines and refuse to follow them. I don't agree with all of them but if we all pull in different directions were just fucking ourselves over.

I don't have the appetite or desire for another lockdown but unless some big changes are made this week I'm actually scared that we will end up in another one. The government won't have any choice if we get back to March and April levels.

Covid is a shit show and no matter how much we want normal and it to fuck off, it's not going anywhere and normal just cannot happen sadly.

@endtimes

but we cannot "learn to live with it" if it is running rampant. Services will be overwhelmed, not just the NHS. If we had a decent testing system, we might have had a shot at it, but the testing is at a crisis point.

Have you got anything anywhere to back this statement up or is it just based on the typical scaremongering?

Oh and @AmelieTaylor you talk about buying time and that is literally what we did with lockdown, so that our national debt is now £2 trillion and larger than our economy. Therefore, as lovely as buying more time would be, we can't afford it.

No. We can't afford to pay for another lockdown.

We need to learn to live with it, like we live with thousands of other illnesses. It's not feasible for the entire economy to keep closing down - I'm not sure why people think that's a realistic option?!

@AmelieTaylor

I don't believe lockdowns work as they aren't a solution, just a pause button

Yes, a pause button that gets the numbers really low. We were too impatient & lifted restriction too quickly before the numbers were low enough.

Buying time brings us closer to better treatments & a vaccine

Mass roll out of a scientifically proven vaccine is a long way off, if ever

That's not what people who know about these things are saying. Why do you think you know better than specialists?

But why isn’t it better to put the money into a mass testing system, rather than pay another load of furlough when that mass testing system will need to be in place anyway when that lockdown ends?

That's not what people who know about these things are saying. Why do you think you know better than specialists?

Even the most optimistic specialists, who are saying we may have a vaccine by the end of the year, are caveating that with the fact that it will then take months to roll out, and that it is likely only to reduce symptoms, not prevent people getting it. If you look beyond the headlines the information is available.
And vaccines are generally less effective in the old and vulnerable. The elderly have a weaker immune response, which is what is needed to make a vaccine effective. This is why flu still kills tens of thousands of the old and vulnerable every year, despite a vaccine.

Even if we could afford another lockdown and our mental health could withstand it (and we can’t and it won’t) I don’t think it’s a good idea.

‘Learning to live’ with it is bandied about a lot, but we need to actually figure out how to do this. And that’s trial and error, not locking down.

We need to learn the strategies that will get us through while minimising impact. Sweden are way ahead of us all here and they’re beginning to reap that benefit.

So mask wearing/SD are clearly helping. Testing urgently needs attention and a lot of money thrown at it, we know that now. The rule of six might well help, as we know that spread in homes is a big problem. We’ll need to try it to find out.

We can’t just sit tight for the vaccine, we have to work in the assumption it may not happen anytime soon. Lockdown doesn’t allow us to learn about the social and public measures that will help us navigate this. As others have said it just kicks the can down the road. That’s not smart in the longer run.

It’s going to come down to a choice.

Who’s going to die? People of covid or people taken a myriad of ways?

What future do you see for your children/grandchildren saddled with debt and destroyed future?

When push comes to shove - many are thinking about their own lives - not “others”.

So who’s selfish?

I’m a lone parent who should be collecting their pension according to my “covid age”. 🙄 I choose my children. Each and every time.

Please ignore the above if you’re cushioned by wealth, job security, furlough or you know your children will personally not still be affected in a couple of decades.

FWIW, I come down on the side of not believing there will be a workable vaccine for many years to come.