Should we have a full lockdown briefly now to slow down rises

[Worriedmum999]

Just musing really. Would it be better to have a few weeks of full lockdown now while furlough is still ongoing rather than needing to do one in a month or so as an emergency when 1000 people are dying every day, having to extend furlough etc.

If it’s planned then people can prep for it. Make it a really strict one. Have minimum shops open for emergencies with strict distancing. School well prepared to teach online for 2 weeks.

Might this give us the time to sort the testing backlog and increase them as promised? Give everyone the short sharp shock they need to take distancing/masks seriously again then reopen with clearer rules

Gawd No. 80% of the UK still has very low prevalence.

Oh do bugger off!

@endtimes

Deaths have been in single figures for weeks now, yet you're forecasting 'many thousands' of deaths by October?

A lot of experts and scientists are warning of this....

Can you link to a reputable 'expert or scientist' who has forecast 'many thousands' of deaths in Britain by the end of next month?

And then what? It will just increase again once that “short” lockdown ends. And then the next one, and the next one, and the next one. No way.

@Batshitbeautycosmeticsltd

NO. Don't see people complying with another lockdown and not seeing their families and loved ones (and not fucking socially distanced). It's just stalling the inevitable. My own odds aren't the best due to my age, weight and underlying conditions but even with all that, the vast majority of those afflicted survive. This can't go on, causing massive unemployment and poverty. FFS.

This.

And there would need to be more mental health support if there were to be another national lockdown.

There have been 3 cases in my area in the past 2 months. 3. 80% of the country has extremely low prevalence.
It has to be localised, targeted measures.

@Worriedmum999

Numbers today are Sunday numbers so obviously lower but cases are doubling every week so we have probably 5 weeks until we get to the numbers we had again at peak when 1000 were dying every day. Just because it’s mainly the young getting it now is why the death rate is lower. It’s slowly filtering through to the older people and care homes just like it did in February and we are sleep walking to disaster once again saying ‘it’ll never happen’.

If we do nothing (and the rule of 6 is practically nothing) we will end up having a long hard lockdown yet again. We will have to extend the furlough scheme for months and months as the alternative is civil unrest if people have no money. There is no alternative to lockdown. We can’t have the NHS overwhelmed and people dying in corridors.

More and more treatments are being trialled at the moment and the closer we are getting to vaccines so the longer we can stave off massive numbers of infected the better I’d have thought.

Obviously it’s not ideal but none of this is. Surely a planned, short lockdown to quash levels right back down would be preferable.

The number of cases being reported when the daily death rate was near 1000 is nowhere near what the actual infected rate was as only those who were severely infected were being tested. There was likely 10s of thousands, maybe even 100s of thousands of mild and asymptomatic cases during that time that were never tested. Unlike now when every man and his dog can get tested or at least they could up until a few days ago. IF we do have another lockdown it Will not be justifiable it will just be to add to the pantomime show that's been created.

@AmelieTaylor check the mortality stats again. You will probably be surprised. My OH is 60, obese, diabetic with hypertension. He thought like you u til he checked the stats.

The problem with the local lockdown it that the twats who are making a show of breaking the rules are just driving to the nearest town where everything is open and doing the same there.

I think a planned lockdown over two weeks around October half term could help keep the numbers flat going into winter.

I'm scarily putting all my eggs in the basket of a vaccine being ready early next year though, my hopes are based on reducing the risks for the vulnerable until the vaccination program is well underway.

Lockdown is most effective as early as possible.

What is going to happen is that instead of having a very short lockdown now, when no-one thinks it is necessary, we are going to have a much longer one later, when everyone thinks it's essential.

Do you have a job OP?

No. If the hospitalisations start to rise or the death rate then yes but not positive cases,

No. I can't earn money if there's another fucking lockdown. I've got bills to pay.

No, I don't. I think all those vulnerable should sheild I'd they wish. I want to carry on as normal.

Ok, let’s do the maths for the hard of thinking. We’ll take last week as week 1. It’s pretty much accepted that the death rate is 1% although it could be lower-it’s hard for anyone to accurately estimate this at the moment. Infection rates are doubled each week. That is a fact stated by the experts.

End of Week 1 (last week) - 3500 infections
End of Week 2 (this week) - 7000 infections
Week 3 - 14000
Week 4 - 18000
Week 5 - 56000
Week 6 - 112000

This doesn’t even get us to half term and we will have over 100,000 infections at day and 1000 deaths a day if we take the death rate at 1%. Obviously we were only picking up 5000 or so infections when we locked down as there was barely any testing but it’s pretty much accepted (again by numerous experts) that infections at peak were 100,000 a day going by the deaths.

Why on earth would this wave not follow the same pattern? The virus hasn’t mutated enough to be less deadly (say the experts). We have some better treatments but they will still be in hospital taking up beds. Absolutely nothing will be different. Look at the date in February/March when we had a similar rate of deaths as today. Then count how many weeks until we locked down.

And bear in mind that my weekly figures above are conservative seeing as people can’t get tested. Infections are believed to be 2 or 3 times higher at least.

It's not October yet OP

Bigger, typo. Week 4 should be 28000

@Worriedmum999 and what do you suggest we do after we lock down for a couple of weeks and then open everything up again and the cycle continues?

You cannot eradicate the virus by locking down. Spain for example had a much stricter lockdown than we did and they're back at square one again. It doesn't work.

I know it’s not October. What can I say? I’m weak and have to respond to idiotic responses

I loved the last lockdown so I’d be all for it, but I doubt we’ll be that lucky again 🤷‍♀️

I’m sure (hope) the government would open up differently this time with more sensible rules in place although that may be wishful thinking. Worse case, we are back to the halcyon post lockdown levels of infections and have a good 6-8 weeks before things start to rise again. Hopefully by then we shall be closer to a vaccine and better treatment.

This doesn’t even get us to half term and we will have over 100,000 infections at day and 1000 deaths a day if we take the death rate at 1%.

We can't 'take' that though. The vast majority of those contracting the disease now are young and highly unlikely to be seriously ill, let alone die.

And what, realistically, is 2 weeks of complete locking going to do which 2 months could not? It's simply not a viable plan.

No, we need to see how the adherence to current rules go. We need to be nimble in responding to increases in cases, but not to panic. I really don’t want another lockdown like March - we’re not near that point yet. We should only shut down schools and businesses if it’s clear that’s necessary to stop a catastrophe. If we reach that point, it would be disastrous.

Even the hard of thinking know we don't have an NHS without a tax take. It isn't funded by magic and love.

It’s pretty much accepted that the death rate is 1% although it could be lower-it’s hard for anyone to accurately estimate this at the moment

It is absolutely not accepted that the death rate is 1%. It is nowhere near that.